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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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nam still has that huge omega thump...and it's centered right over SNE at 12z. wouldn't matter what the rest of the run did...that would be accumulating snow for just about all of the region...with advisory snows for the interior. LOL.

it's inside 18 hours now and essentially every single sref member has the same look.

Yeah the NAM would be like a 5" thump for Kevin. All of which would fall during the AM commute.

This actually has the potential to be a very high impact and surprising snow. If the NAM (or even GFS, for that matter) is correct... watch out.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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The fact we're continuing to tick cold (for like the 10th run in a row for all models) is probably a good sign this will come in cold. The question is going to be will the Euro's more strung out first wave come to pass which would be a downer.

Yeah I think the temp profiles are cold enough especially the interior but the question is lift. Will we have the weak lift and fragmented precip that the euro has which causes the warmer air to surge north quicker. Or, will that lead shortwave cause precip and strong lift generated by WAA and generate a 3-4 hr band of moderate or greater precip? Part of me suspects the euro just a bit, but it doesn't quite have the lead shortwave that the GFS and NAM have. Even a GFS/Euro compromise would give high spots a bit of snow.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah I think the temp profiles are cold enough especially the interior but the question is lift. Will we have the weak lift and fragmented precip that the euro has which causes the warmer air to surge north quicker. Or, will that lead shortwave cause precip and strong lift generated by WAA and generate a 3-4 hr band of moderate or greater precip? Part of me suspects the euro just a bit, but it doesn't quite have the lead shortwave that the GFS and NAM have. Even a GFS/Euro compromise would give high spots a bit of snow.

It seems the trend has been to keep wave 1 of warm advection/DCVA a bit separate from the main batch. That has allowed this storm to come in snowy. Essentially we're getting a separate storm.

Given the models showing a rather substantial area of frontogenesis over SNE we may see a band of overperforming surprise snow. Not a lock but something to watch.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It seems the trend has been to keep wave 1 of warm advection/DCVA a bit separate from the main batch. That has allowed this storm to come in snowy. Essentially we're getting a separate storm.

Given the models showing a rather substantial area of frontogenesis over SNE we may see a band of overperforming surprise snow. Not a lock but something to watch.

Usually these lead waves are kind of fun, which is another reason why I like it...but I can't shake the Euro caution flag. It may be right in keeping the best stuff south, but I suspect it a bit.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Where the heck is Ray? He is about to lose the 5" bet with me ...or he will lose by next Wednesday night. ;)

Pretty soon we can start watching radar trends re: the NAM.

Yeah I think the temp profiles are cold enough especially the interior but the question is lift. Will we have the weak lift and fragmented precip that the euro has which causes the warmer air to surge north quicker. Or, will that lead shortwave cause precip and strong lift generated by WAA and generate a 3-4 hr band of moderate or greater precip? Part of me suspects the euro just a bit, but it doesn't quite have the lead shortwave that the GFS and NAM have. Even a GFS/Euro compromise would give high spots a bit of snow.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

I bet your glad you dont have to make the forecast tonight

It seems the trend has been to keep wave 1 of warm advection/DCVA a bit separate from the main batch. That has allowed this storm to come in snowy. Essentially we're getting a separate storm.

Given the models showing a rather substantial area of frontogenesis over SNE we may see a band of overperforming surprise snow. Not a lock but something to watch.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

nam still has that huge omega thump...and it's centered right over SNE at 12z. wouldn't matter what the rest of the run did...that would be accumulating snow for just about all of the region...with advisory snows for the interior. LOL.

it's inside 18 hours now and essentially every single sref member has the same look.

I haven't looked at the individual member spread, but the 15z looks like it has some members that want to do what the rgem/ecmwf do with the first wave and split off the piece to the east...In the end it is still a good thump on the mean, but it is interesting. I'm pretty lost on this one. for the Mass/NH area

9z

post-402-0-54962600-1330028358.gif

15z

post-402-0-76593200-1330028476.gif

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Usually these lead waves are kind of fun, which is another reason why I like it...but I can't shake the Euro caution flag. It may be right in keeping the best stuff south, but I suspect it a bit.

Yeah even if you compromise a bit more robust than Euro... you still have a decent "couple inch thump" around the Pike and even down in N CT.

One concern I have is the just awful timing AND the fact this wasn't really forecast down here even 18 hours out!!!

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Agreed. And even such, the ground has been so warm....the last ice melted off a pond I drive by in Somers every day today - how much can it really stick?

it wouldn't make a difference. if what the NAM is doing is right, the ground temps would matter for all of 2 minutes. it would be a short-lived wall of S/S+ that would cover the ground with no issue.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I bet your glad you dont have to make the forecast tonight

I'd probably go 1-3" most of northern CT and emphasize high impact possible during morning commute. Also that this was a low confidence forecast.

3 hours of relatively unforecasted 1" per hour snow from 5-8A is just a disaster.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I haven't looked at the individual member spread, but the 15z looks like it has some members that want to do what the rgem/ecmwf do with the first wave and split off the piece to the east...In the end it is still a good thump on the mean, but it is interesting. I'm pretty lost on this one. for the Mass/NH area

here's the 15z members...i was concerned it might have a handful of members basically dry with another grouping leaning toward the NAM but they look pretty similar overall:

post-218-0-50864200-1330028780.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah even if you compromise a bit more robust than Euro... you still have a decent "couple inch thump" around the Pike and even down in N CT.

One concern I have is the just awful timing AND the fact this wasn't really forecast down here even 18 hours out!!!

Yeah it would be. The SREFs do have a nice band coming through at 12z. I just looked at them on the SPC site.

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