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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

what are you expecting in jamaica plain tomm for accums on your doorstep. 1-3?

As I mentioned, the BL may be questionable imby until things wetbulb to around 32 degrees. If the consensus from 12z holds, I'm expecting around 1" here. If it comes in weak like the euro shows, it'll probably just be non-accumulating flakes and a temp in the mid 30s, however like I said, the Euro is the only model showing things so weak so I think it's an outlier at this point.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was thinking...honestly the gfs/nam has been more consistent then the euro for this threat...18z nam out in 20 minutes so hopefully it doesn't trend to the euro.

I don't see it that way at all. Once the Euro caved it's probably been most correct. I feel the NAM should be totally disregarded.

NCEP is all over the Euro

...WAVE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 1...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM SOLUTION HAS CONVERGED CONSIDERABLY TOWARD THE VERY

CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE

GFS...WHILE HAVING SLOWLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...IS STILL NORTH OF

THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS OF THE

ECMWF...AS SUPPORTED BY THE EQUALLY CONSISTENT UKMET.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

As I mentioned, the BL may be questionable imby until things wetbulb to around 32 degrees. If the consensus from 12z holds, I'm expecting around 1" here. If it comes in weak like the euro shows, it'll probably just be non-accumulating flakes and a temp in the mid 30s, however like I said, the Euro is the only model showing things so weak so I think it's an outlier at this point.

There's a reason it's the best

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

The fact we're continuing to tick cold (for like the 10th run in a row for all models) is probably a good sign this will come in cold. The question is going to be will the Euro's more strung out first wave come to pass which would be a downer.

nam still has that huge omega thump...and it's centered right over SNE at 12z. wouldn't matter what the rest of the run did...that would be accumulating snow for just about all of the region...with advisory snows for the interior. LOL.

it's inside 18 hours now and essentially every single sref member has the same look.

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