Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[Brian5671]

It's February

...but with a late March or early April feel and pattern. No snowcover and no cold air

[Brian5671]

Try 4192 feet for starters..lol

5280 actually.

[Snow Bow]

For NH, I'm thinking statewide 3"-7" sounds good right now.

not buying the euro ? Starting to get a bit nervous for a whiff in some places.

[N. OF PIKE]

what are euro 2m temps for boston tomm?

[CT Rain]

ryan u highlighted my NWS forecast post that said boston is getting to 32 tonite with 1-2 inches for boston. i said not happening. you replied it's february? implying yes that forecast would be accurate

Saying it won't get down to 32 and won't snow because it's so warm is sort of silly. It's still February. I haven't really looked at Boston specifically but it's important to keep the date in mind. A 50+ degree day before snow isn't really a big deal.

[Damage In Tolland]

5280 actually.

I was just going by the Mile High City..but you get the point. I didn;t know their exact elev,

vs BOS who sits at sea level on a torched by winter standards Atlantic Ocean

[CT Rain]

I was just going by the Mile High City..but you get the point. I didn;t know their exact elev,

vs BOS who sits at sea level on a torched by winter standards Atlantic Ocean

A mile is 5,280 ft.

And again... it's February.

[codfishsnowman]

There may not be much wintry weather this season but some days this board has been a hoot! Today is no exception lol

[Brian5671]

this is weird to see Ryan arguing for Snow and Kevin against it. (I'm with Rev on this one though given the seasonal trend)

[N. OF PIKE]

Saying it won't get down to 32 and won't snow because it's so warm is sort of silly. It's still February. I haven't really looked at Boston specifically but it's important to keep the date in mind. A 50+ degree day before snow isn't really a big deal.

that was one reason i was citing as to how the airmass is a joke right now

the euro not on board for the last two runs was at least as big of a reason in my mind.

there seems like many reasons for the cp as to why 32 and accums won't occur. that's all.

i don't think scott is thinking boston sees 1-2 inches either. maybe a 10-20% chance of that happening but as of now wouldn't even expect a trace and more of a long shot

[Quincy]

EC has a quick little front-end thump before temps rise. the way this winter is going, who knows if it will verify...

[powderfreak]

We like this map...

On top of storm #1 last night... could be some decent 72 hour totals up this way after upslope wraps up, too.

[Quincy]

EC 2mAG temps stay AOB +2C in Boston, until briefly rising to around +3C at 10 p.m. tomorrow night.

[mattb65]

Wow people are so traumatized by this winter it's crazy. Throwing in the towel has basically become a defense mechanism at the slightest hint that a threat will go south.

Every model - SREF, Ukie, GGEM, GFS, NAM all show accumulating snow for most of the region a 1-3" type deal for most with some possible boundary layer issues close to the coast and imby, but one questionable euro run and everyone is running for their toasters.

[CoastalWx]

He said I have a good shot at seeing 1-3 and that all models have it

Well I could see an inch or two of the GFS is right. It will all depend if you can get a strong band coming in from the sw. If not, then all bets are off. Very tricky forecast, but the euro is concerning.

[danstorm]

You thought a mile was 4k feet? Does that mean your 10mi runs are only 8 lol

[weatherMA]

Wow people are so traumatized by this winter it's crazy. Throwing in the towel has basically become a defense mechanism in case it goes to hell.

Every model - SREF, Ukie, GGEM, GFS, NAM all show accumulating snow for most of the region a 1-3" type deal for most with some possible boundary layer issues close to the coast and imby, but one questionable euro run and everyone is running for their toasters.

It's looked like this the past 3 runs, and before that it had a bomb into BUF that was saying rain and 50 for tomorrow.

[N. OF PIKE]

Wow people are so traumatized by this winter it's crazy. Throwing in the towel has basically become a defense mechanism in case it goes to hell.

Every model - SREF, Ukie, GGEM, GFS, NAM all show accumulating snow for most of the region a 1-3" type deal for most with some possible boundary layer issues close to the coast and imby, but one questionable euro run and everyone is running for their toasters.

what are you expecting in jamaica plain tomm for accums on your doorstep. 1-3?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Dont forget the sun angle. Even at night, that comes into play.

[CoastalWx]

ROA was 60, and then 7" of snow the next day folks.

[CT Rain]

Well I could see an inch or two of the GFS is right. It will all depend if you can get a strong band coming in from the sw. If not, then all bets are off. Very tricky forecast, but the euro is concerning.

Yeah if the Euro is right stick a fork in it... but the GFS shows the potential for 3" along the CT/MA border. NAM is more. So we'll see.

[dryslot]

lol at these last 4 pages, Qpf is all over the board on this one, I have to figure out which model or models i am going to hug

[weatherMA]

Yeah if the Euro is right stick a fork in it... but the GFS shows the potential for 3" along the CT/MA border. NAM is more. So we'll see.

So you're not on air tonight I'm guessing?

[mattb65]

It's looked like this the past 3 runs, and before that it had a bomb into BUF that was saying rain and 50 for tomorrow.

I posted the 0z run earlier in this thread it had 1-3" region wide albeit with a QPF shield that was weakening as it moved east. 12z yesterday similarly had about 1-2" region wide. This run shows similar but it just shifted it further south.

Euro has been all over the place on this threat, and as far as I'm concerned I'd go with the consensus and place the euro as an outlier.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah if the Euro is right stick a fork in it... but the GFS shows the potential for 3" along the CT/MA border. NAM is more. So we'll see.

That's why I was kind of thinking a GFS compromise, but that's not the most comforting. Euro looks a little too meager, but I don't like seeing that.

[CT Rain]

So your not on air tonight I'm guessing?

Nope... worked the morning.

[CT Rain]

That's why I was kind of thinking a GFS compromise, but that's not the most comforting. Euro looks a little too meager, but I don't like seeing that.

I wish the Euro was right there in the middle lol

UK is sort of meager... GGEM is definitely juicier.

[N. OF PIKE]

ROA was 60, and then 7" of snow the next day folks.

i didn't realize the same dynamics were forecast to be in play here for tomm am in boston

[weatherMA]

I posted the 0z run earlier in this thread it had 1-3" region wide albeit with a QPF shield that was weakening as it moved east. 12z yesterday similarly had about 1-2" region wide. This run shows similar but it just shifted it further south.

Euro has been all over the place on this threat, and as far as I'm concerned I'd go with the consensus and place the euro as an outlier.

Yeah I was thinking...honestly the gfs/nam has been more consistent then the euro for this threat...18z nam out in 20 minutes so hopefully it doesn't trend to the euro.

[amarshall]

I was just going by the Mile High City..but you get the point. I didn;t know their exact elev,

vs BOS who sits at sea level on a torched by winter standards Atlantic Ocean

Anecdotally here is the sea surface temps 100 miles South of Nantucket in Veatch Canyon. That should be high 40s low 50s tops this time of year.