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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it


Typhoon Tip

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OVERALL LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE

SURFACE LOW VARIES GREATLY WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER AND

WEAKER SOLUTION...AND THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER AND MORE INTENSE.

WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE A MEAN OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE

OFFERED A BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. THIS WOULD BRING

PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WOULD THEN

LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. IF EITHER

SOLUTION IS EVEN SOMEWHAT CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE

LARGEST QPF EVENT OF THE SEASON WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS IN THE

0.50-1" RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT.

Ride the ECMWF bomb... damaging WNW upslope winds and snow baby, haha.

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OVERALL LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE

SURFACE LOW VARIES GREATLY WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER AND

WEAKER SOLUTION...AND THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER AND MORE INTENSE.

WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE A MEAN OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE

OFFERED A BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. THIS WOULD BRING

PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WOULD THEN

LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. IF EITHER

SOLUTION IS EVEN SOMEWHAT CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE

LARGEST QPF EVENT OF THE SEASON WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS IN THE

0.50-1" RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT.

Ride the ECMWF bomb... damaging WNW upslope winds and snow baby, haha.

Scott-

if the Euro verifies I suspect the summit of mansfield will be crushed. Everything about the 00z Euro says rain and wet snow at the base of stowe, with just an absurd pounding of snow above 3000 feet. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if your base got 1 inch of snow, mid got 5 inches and the nose got two feet.

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