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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Latitude check...elevation uncheck. I am on a hill though. About 150' elevation IMBY. :yikes:

well by latitude...i mean more like C/NNE. lol.

i wouldn't be expecting some huge event anywhere in SNE - but given this looked like strong southerlies and 60F+ possible a few days ago...big change.

and i wouldn't be surprised if combo of snow/sleet/ice is enough to warrant an advisory for parts of the higher terrain of C and W MA.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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well by latitude...i mean more like C/NNE. lol.

i wouldn't be expecting some huge event anywhere in SNE - but given this looked like strong southerlies and 60F+ possible a few days ago...big change.

and i wouldn't be surprised if combo of snow/sleet/ice is enough to warrant an advisory for parts of the higher terrain of C and W MA.

Oh okay...back to hibernation mode I guess.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

there is a sneaky warm layer on the GFS that races in around 800 mb. so if you really wanted to dig into details (only bothering because this is the most boring winter ever) on this model run...by 12z >.25" of precip has fallen in W MA and a good chunk of C and W CT, but not all of that would be snow. some would be sleet.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

there is a sneaky warm layer on the GFS that races in around 800 mb. so if you really wanted to dig into details (only bothering because this is the most boring winter ever) on this model run...by 12z >.25" of precip has fallen in W MA and a good chunk of C and W CT, but not all of that would be snow. some would be sleet.

It eventually gets almost all the way to Mt Washington - the warm layer. RGEM does the same, torching VT but sparing upper NH and Maine.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I'm afraid to even look at the euro, but given the fact that it only had .10-.15 last night I think it would be difficult to be worse today at 12z....I think :yikes:

Yes, It was nothing to do cart wheels over as far as qpf, Looks like we caught in the transistion of primary to secondary transfer up here..

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

RGEM/GFS want to get the mix way north before it all collapses after 36 hours. Not a big front end thump at all on the RGEM way north, but it looks like it does well on the flip.

Not that exciting. NAM is totally the other way about 300 miles further south with the cold air.

It looks to me that all the meaningful qpf falls as snow on the gfs for the MA/NH border N. It might get warm enough for rain, but there's only like .1 or so that falls as rain. I would be surprised if MA/NH border north didn't see advisories and even northern ORH is borderline being that this falls during commute time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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RGEM/GFS want to get the mix way north before it all collapses after 36 hours. Not a big front end thump at all on the RGEM way north, but it looks like it does well on the flip.

Not that exciting. NAM is totally the other way about 300 miles further south with the cold air.

You are going north. How can you not be happy to have fresh snow OTG???

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

RGEM/GFS want to get the mix way north before it all collapses after 36 hours. Not a big front end thump at all on the RGEM way north, but it looks like it does well on the flip.

Not that exciting. NAM is totally the other way about 300 miles further south with the cold air.

Dude where the hell are you getting these distances? 150-200 miles? 300 miles?

The CT coast to the Canadian border is only 250 miles... so you're saying the RGEM has the 850 to Montreal? Stop exaggerating.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
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Dude where the hell are you getting these distances? 150-200 miles? 300 miles?

The CT coast to the Canadian border is only 250 miles... so you're saying the RGEM has the 850 to Montreal? Stop exaggerating.

His posts are ridiculous. Analyzing it and saying its warmer then we are saying it is is one thing, but saying its a 300 mile difference is a little bit of an exaggeration.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

You are going north. How can you not be happy to have fresh snow OTG???

I don't think the RGEM is as promising as most of you, same with the GFS. Bretton Woods would be fine, Plymouth NH going to be tight. Front end thump is dying as it moves north, will need to rely on the redevelopment.

Dude where the hell are you getting these distances? 150-200 miles? 300 miles?

The CT coast to the Canadian border is only 250 miles... so you're saying the RGEM has the 850 to Montreal? Stop exaggerating.

I use the backroads.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

His posts are ridiculous. Analyzing it and saying its warmer then we are saying it is is one thing, but saying its a 300 mile difference is a little bit of an exaggeration.

It was supposed to be 200 miles. I'm deeply sorry I missed a digit.

By the afternoon Friday the GFS has the 1000-850cts into Canada along the VT/NY border. The NAM is down around Hudson NY. Massena to Hudson is about 200 miles...and Massena ain't Canada.

Beyond about 18-24 hours the NAM is useless, unless the Euro agrees with it, toss it. Most of the snow has already fallen at that point, the big difference is if the NAM is right it's going to fall further south in terms of the max amounts. GFS keeps the primary going and a bit stronger driving the warm air further north, it doesn't get much further though than CNH....even on the GFS.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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It was supposed to be 200 miles. I'm deeply sorry I missed a digit.

By the afternoon Friday the GFS has the 1000-850cts into Canada along the VT/NY border. The NAM is down around Hudson NY. Massena to Hudson is about 200 miles...and Massena ain't Canada.

Beyond about 18-24 hours the NAM is useless, unless the Euro agrees with it, toss it. Most of the snow has already fallen at that point, the big difference is if the NAM is right it's going to fall further south in terms of the max amounts. GFS keeps the primary going and a bit stronger driving the warm air further north, it doesn't get much further though than CNH....even on the GFS.

Ok, fair enough. There is a huge difference in sensible outcome. For instance, nam bufkit has 7.7" for MHT and 3.6" for ORH, even .7" for BOS. I highly doubt that happens. GFS bufkit isn't out yet but I bet it will be like 4-5" for MHT, 2" for ORH, and nothing for BOS, probably a much more reasonable outcome. Even that may be too high though.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Ok, fair enough. There is a huge difference in sensible outcome. For instance, nam bufkit has 7.7" for MHT and 3.6" for ORH, even .7" for BOS. I highly doubt that happens. GFS bufkit isn't out yet but I bet it will be like 4-5" for MHT, 2" for ORH, and nothing for BOS, probably a much more reasonable outcome. Even that may be too high though.

I really did screw up the number 3 v 2, sorry about that. In reality it doesn't matter "much" ...but obvioiusly if the NAM is way too cold it'll have the best forcing way too far south which is I think the likely case right now...waiting on the Euro which will ultimately tell the tale I think.

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