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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

areas to the north of them just had 8+ inches of snow, that may help with this upcoming storm.

That was a surprisingly heavy snow dump last night in the elevations. Good to start the 3-day snow totals with 7-8" from round 1.

Smugglers Notch Resort is reporting 10" overnight last night at the summit. We had 7.5" at 3,000ft and over 8" at 3,600ft.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Nice to see the 00z Euro try to maintain at least "some" semblance of continuity regarding that D8 deal from yesterday's 12z run. Although, admittedly it looks kinda weakened and garbage like... almost like fragile. There are still some monster strong westerly cores out there, and they just so happened to spatial relocated ...leaving the domain from the MV-NE temporarily relaxed and allowing for anything stranded in that region to do a kind of quasi "bowling ball" - as they are lovingly referred. Real fragile... any incursion by said streams and said domain gets obliterated for that event. With 7 or 8 days left to perturb that fragility ...heh, better off playing pick-up-sticks until further notice.

With the exception of the GFS which has very little or no presentation for that time period, most other guidance types have the impulse though - if perhaps handling it in there own inimitable ways. GGEM does it's typical 'get the wave to the N pole as quickly as possible' bias, and the GONAPS model of all models agrees with the Euro. heh, weird. I suppose at this time range anything's possible and I have already expended more energy discussing than is really warranted.

The overnight teleconnectors that were previously heralding in spring, still have that appeal but it is weakened some The PNA is below 0.0 SD at both CDC and CPC, but only between 0.0 and -1 SD. That's pretty close enough to neutral to suggest that any correlation on the physical appears of the pattern over N/A is less applicable. But, these seem to change nightly by a few decimals worth of SD so... I'm sure at least a few eyes are rolling because we want to believe the shortening wave lengths ...etc.... There is certainly truth to that, but the first half of March that is less applicable actually. The real shortening thing kicks beyond the Equinox. That said, -.5 combined with some spring-time increasing stochastic climo could be interesting depending on other usual suspects.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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well yeah...but beggars can't be choosers. considering what this looked like 48 hours ago...it's pretty remarkable that advisory criteria snows may very well be flirting with parts of SNE.

Agree whole-heartedly. If we had a colder antecedent air mass I'd be honking for all. Hell, I may even see some sleet now given how the 12z runs have played out thus far.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Did you look at the soundings? It's kind of weird looking. At 12z, is has this funky dry layer above 500mb, but strong lift at 700mb where it is saturated. I would rather have seen a much more saturated look.

i don't have access to them yet. i was just going on the basic charts.

but the NAM also has that to some degree.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Fail fail fail

post-218-0-99204200-1330011544.png

Nice...where is that product from? Looks like AWIPS output to me.

Anyhow GFS a little less aggressive with the front end lift compared to the NAM. Given the mesoscale nature of the NAM, this is not totally surprising. Given that were inside of 24 hours, the NAM may have some credibility to it. Thermally, the GFS may be a tad warmer due to lighter precip, but it's pretty similar around here overall for the meat of the front end event. It's probably 2-4" for me, 3-5" for Pete, and maybe 5-6" for 2K for the front end. We'll see what the CAA side offers up.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I think the 12z gfs verbatim would be a coating to 1" for south of the pike, 1-3" north of the pike up to ma/nh border (2 low el, 3-4" elevation), then it pretty much stays all snow so all of VT+NH and most of Maine are good for 3-6" this run.

i actually think it would be a bit better than that. for places like KTOL and BDL there's a decent thump of precip by 12z.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

i actually think it would be a bit better than that. for places like KTOL and BDL there's a decent thump of precip by 12z.

Temps looked too warm to me, but yeah there was a decent thump. I might have to wake up early for this being that a 2-3" event is like a top 3 event for the year...and most snow I've got in like 5 weeks lol.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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Yeah it actually has a decent burst for Kevin. Nice lift at 700mb flies ENE right into western SNE.

Hmm...I'm concerned with this antecedent airmass. I mean IMBY it is 52.5F and cloudy. One break is that this arrives after a night of cooling.

I'd bet on less than an inch here. Maybe west of 495 can get 2-3" similarly in S NH.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Yeah it actually has a decent burst for Kevin. Nice lift at 700mb flies ENE right into western SNE.

yeah there's a period in there between 9z and maybe 14 or 15z before the 850 jet turns more WSW in response to the secondary where there's some really solid WAA and nice tightening thermal gradient over the region. so the precip shield might start kind of ragged to our SW but could actually get more formidable as it evolves over the region.

we'll see what the euro does. it seemed to me at quick glance that it wasn't as strong with the initial waa as the 850 low over the lower lakes was weaker and the secondary was a bit more pronounced...so it sort of split the precip in two pieces.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Hmm...I'm concerned with this antecedent airmass. I mean IMBY it is 52.5F and cloudy. One break is that this arrives after a night of cooling.

I'd bet on less than an inch here. Maybe west of 495 can get 2-3" similarly in S NH.

Yeah I don't have much hope for lower spots..except maybe up in SNH. Although if it really thumps..Ray's area could get a surprise couple of inches.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

GUN TO HEAD FORECAST

Connecticut

Hartford 0.5"

Tolland 0.8"

Litchfield 1.5"

Fairfield T

Rhode Island

Newport T

Providence 0.5"

NW Hills 1.0"

Massachusetts

Boston 0.2"

Worcester 1.5"

Wilmington 0.5"

Taunton 0.2"

W. Chesterfield 2.5"

Hubbardston 1.8"

New Hampshire (southern)

Nashua 2.2"

Manchester 2.8"

Keene 3.5"

Portsmouth 1.3"

I think we'll see a trend towards weaker lift at the onset of precip (ala the 00z EURO), which will screw much in SNE - weaker onset means temps in the 34-37 range, as opposed to the 31-34 range. Heck, its 55F before the noon hour. This has bust written all over it if you are expecting much more than outlined above in SNE.

As Will said regarding 3/1, all in or bust!

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Hmm...I'm concerned with this antecedent airmass. I mean IMBY it is 52.5F and cloudy. One break is that this arrives after a night of cooling.

I'd bet on less than an inch here. Maybe west of 495 can get 2-3" similarly in S NH.

well i wouldn't be expecting much on the coastal plain.

you'll definitely want elevation and latitude overall.

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