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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

The NAM is really only a 3-5 hr snow deal..almost closer to 3-4 hrs near I-90..lol.

Scott, I'm wondering if we can that low a little further south that maybe areas like NE MA SE NH and SW ME Can almost get into a convergence zone of where they cash into that initial band and then as the coastal takes over and throws moisture back into those areas.

It's gonna be interesting. Anyways, first storm I've felt decent about since that other SWFE that overperformed( feela like that was in 1998.or something)

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

The bottom line for us is that most of the qpf falls as snow. As long as it stays intense it snows...as it tapers off in intensity we get pingers, but by then the "damage" is done. Looks like a solid 3 to 6 inches to me... I'm liking January 12th as a comparison.

Occluded front in the afternoon could have some shrn to briefly heavy shsn around here.

Nice Mitch. Look forward to your final call later. Is it snowing in Lenox? Nice snow has been falling here for the last hour.

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
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amazing how much colder tomorrow has trended. nam and euro basically keep almost the entire region in the 30s tomorrow - some areas N of the pike stay below freezing for basically the entire day.

Do you think we can trend even colder or is it over? I mean we've trended 25* colder over 2-3 days, can we get another 5 over 24 hours? lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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amazing how much colder tomorrow has trended. nam and euro basically keep almost the entire region in the 30s tomorrow - some areas N of the pike stay below freezing for basically the entire day.

Not sure how dependable this source is, but http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm shows there is a sneaky cold wedge just right next by us to the north. ALB's DP has dipped below 32 and temps are steady in the upper 30s. The cool air mass has a little umph it would appear.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Do you think we can trend even colder or is it over? I mean we've trended 25* colder over 2-3 days, can we get another 5 over 24 hours? lol

at this point i wouldn't expect any more real big changes...a degree or two +/- is always possible

but 30-40 compared to 50-60 is pretty amazing.

the NAM and EC would actually flip parts of N MA, S VT, SNH over to ice during the afternoon before tapering down.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

That 06z NAM was a total weenie run lol...-35 ubar/s through the SGZ. But the 12z NAM and 06z GFS still look relatively decent for around here. I'm hoping the combination of last night's suprise 3-4" snowfall from the southern tier into Watertown and the stronger vertical motion models verify so we can get heavy 32/33 degree paste for a few hours.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Not sure how dependable this source is, but http://www.pdfamily....her/mesomap.htm shows there is a sneaky cold wedge just right next by us to the north. ALB's DP has dipped below 32 and temps are steady in the upper 30s. The cool air mass has a little umph it would appear.

yeah when you widen out the view a bit there isn't *a lot* of cold around but the air mass definitely dries out in N and WNYS and up into S canada. so when this morning's system deepens today and the NW flow increases it just grabs enough of that air to make a difference across the area tonight and tomorrow.

tomorrow really has a pretty classic CAD/secondary signal now.

cool stuff.

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
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at this point i wouldn't expect any more real big changes...a degree or two +/- is always possible

but 30-40 compared to 50-60 is pretty amazing.

the NAM and EC would actually flip parts of N MA, S VT, SNH over to ice during the afternoon before tapering down.

Im just grasping for straws to see a couple inches of snow lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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For most of SNE ...less south... to me this really has a "kitchen sink" vibe about.

That's what we used to call these back in my UML lab days, kitchen sink storms. It's when you get all kinds of weird layers of warm and cold aloft, and the UVM is shredded, at other times, consolidated into a nice band or two. Where precipitation falls, it can be simultaneous noodles, pingers, straight small rain drops, and even few big cotton ball aggregates falling at the same time (redundancy but wanted to emphasize the simultaneous nature) here and there. Some places the cotton balls might even take over and go more pure snow ...others they go to straight rain (south); there's always one person that gets 32.1F rain, and they look at Bedford Mass and it's "hey, what gives - 32.9 with S" - the surface temps are only a part of the story.

This type of scenario for obvious reason doesn't accumulate as much snow as it could if it were all snow. That said, the QPF in this is not a monster by any stretch. For New England climatology this is forgettably light really... .6"? meh. I guess though this winter's standards have uttery rocked that awareness to the core, and set up an in situ time period sort of shortened yard stick if you will.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

No snow south of the ma/nh border? :yikes:

I actually feel decent for 2-4", unless the euro doesn't increase qpf. 9z srefs met another jump in the right direction.

f12s33.gif

Your SREF's are coming into their useful range. Steady south trend. NW winds are really starting to kick here at 2K.
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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

Not sure how dependable this source is, but http://www.pdfamily....her/mesomap.htm shows there is a sneaky cold wedge just right next by us to the north. ALB's DP has dipped below 32 and temps are steady in the upper 30s. The cool air mass has a little umph it would appear.

areas to the north of them just had 8+ inches of snow, that may help with this upcoming storm.

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