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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Well again, this is more for the interior so I have limited expectations imby...but it makes a difference if I have rain or a slushy inch.

I'm very skeptical of the american guidance particularly because earlier on the NAM dropped south towards the Euro. In the end it recovers, but beyond 18-24 the NAM always seems to default back to earlier. Just IMHO I don't like what I saw and as it stands now I'd be right under the most QPF on the NAM.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Look at the thermal gradient over CT/RI/MA at 850mb! It's like a 8-10C gradient over 50 miles.

NAM may a little too wet ans a shade too cool, but I noticed the SREF 1" probs came south just a bit, while the gradient between 0% and 50% really tightened up. So this tells me that you could go from 33F rain to 33F snow in about 10 miles. I'd like to see whatt he GFS does.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Tough forecast for here in terms of both the low-levels and the mid-levels. 12Z NAM is a nice thump starting around 09Z. We're still safely snow at 12Z, but a sneaky warm layer comes in between 750-800 mb by 15Z as the precip lessens. As with a lot of these SWFEs, it will be a battle between mid-level WAA and dynamical cooling from the heavier precip. The heaviest precip could easily be 1-2" per hour 1/4 mile visibility +SN if the NAM has its way. Low-levels could be sketchy in the lower elevations of the Hudson and CT River Valleys, but above 1K should be okay.

Tough call, but if I went with the NAM I'll go with 3-5" for me, 4-6" for Pete and MPM, maybe 6-7" at 2K. Hudson and CT Valleys are probably 1-2" of slop. I'll wait for the GFS before finalizing my forecast. After first batch, we probably go to a light sleet or rain for the bulk of the day before cold front comes in tomorrow evening. CAA behind the front could yield another inch or two from upslope as moisture gets wrung out.

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
Posted

Interesting morning AFD from GYX, has us missing the better qpf twice - heavier precip from the initial low tomorrow stays south, then the secondary is a bit too far to our east. At this point, however, advisory level snow would boost Feb snowfall here by about 10X, so it's all good.

Exactly, that half inch from Tuesday night boosted my total for Feb by more than 10x and it was great to see. Even if its just a 2-4 event thats going to feel like a 4-8 event in a normal year.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Tough forecast for here in terms of both the low-levels and the mid-levels. 12Z NAM is a nice thump starting around 09Z. We're still safely snow at 12Z, but a sneaky warm layer comes in between 750-800 mb by 15Z as the precip lessens. As with a lot of these SWFEs, it will be a battle between mid-level WAA and dynamical cooling from the heavier precip. The heaviest precip could easily be 1-2" per hour 1/4 mile visibility +SN if the NAM has its way. Low-levels could be sketchy in the lower elevations of the Hudson and CT River Valleys, but above 1K should be okay.

Tough call, but if I went with the NAM I'll go with 3-5" for me, 4-6" for Pete and MPM, maybe 6-7" at 2K. Hudson and CT Valleys are probably 1-2" of slop. I'll wait for the GFS before finalizing my forecast. After first batch, we probably go to a light sleet or rain for the bulk of the day before cold front comes in tomorrow evening. CAA behind the front could yield another inch or two from upslope as moisture gets wrung out.

Nice Mitch. Look forward to your final call later. Is it snowing in Lenox? Nice snow has been falling here for the last hour.
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