Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[mahk_webstah]

We've got you right around 5", which kicks wording to the higher category.

I think you guys are prudently waiting for 12Z to see if this goes advisory or low end warning. With the Euro not on board it's a toughie I'd say.

[mattb65]

Despite the negative posts from kev calling for no snow south of the pike - here's what his favorite model actually printed out at 0z as far as accumulations from the front end snows. Also it's below freezing from 850 mb all the way to the surface per wunderground. Who knows if it's right or wrong, but verbatim it shows accumulating snow for all of SNE.

[OceanStWx]

I think you guys are prudently waiting for 12Z to see if this goes advisory or low end warning. With the Euro not on board it's a toughie I'd say.

I'm more than happy to pass this off to the short term forecaster today.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Despite the negative posts from kev calling for no snow south of the pike - here's what his favorite model actually printed out at 0z as far as accumulations from the front end snows. Also it's below freezing from 850 mb all the way to the surface per wunderground. Who knows if it's right or wrong, but verbatim it shows accumulating snow for all of SNE.

Those maps have given me about 10' of snow this winter, they are mostly useless.

[Ginx snewx]

Those maps have given me about 10' of snow this winter, they are mostly useless.

To be fair, Under 72 hours they have given you what you got pretty much though

[CoastalWx]

Despite the negative posts from kev calling for no snow south of the pike - here's what his favorite model actually printed out at 0z as far as accumulations from the front end snows. Also it's below freezing from 850 mb all the way to the surface per wunderground. Who knows if it's right or wrong, but verbatim it shows accumulating snow for all of SNE.

LOL, that is way too weenie-ish.

The whole thing is very marginal. No good antecedent airmass and not even a good high. There are a lot of variables with this...certainly a low confidence forecast. I could see a slushly inch for HubbDave, or 3-4"..lol. Considering this was looking like 55-60 on the euro a few days ago..not a bad turn of events.

[tamarack]

In the forecast discussion they said that amounts of 4-8 were expected in the mountains but didn't feel it warranted a watch based on the small size of area affected.

Interesting morning AFD from GYX, has us missing the better qpf twice - heavier precip from the initial low tomorrow stays south, then the secondary is a bit too far to our east. At this point, however, advisory level snow would boost Feb snowfall here by about 10X, so it's all good.

[mattb65]

Those maps have given me about 10' of snow this winter, they are mostly useless.

I've found them quite good at predicting p-type so far, but a little aggressive at times as far as accumulation amounts. I don't have soundings for the euro but based on the look at 850 and the 2m temps, things look fine for a quick accumulation of snow before it flips over. It's the difference between flakes not accumulating and a quick 1 or 2" of snow. Usually not significant but it could bust futility for KBOS if we get lucky.

[dryslot]

I'm more than happy to pass this off to the short term forecaster today.

I bet you are, Could be a tough call..

[snowNH]

SREFs are less juiced and colder for N MA and SNH

Probs are gonna be real good here I think.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL, that is way too weenie-ish.

The whole thing is very marginal. No good antecedent airmass and not even a good high. There are a lot of variables with this...certainly a low confidence forecast. I could see a slushly inch for HubbDave, or 3-4"..lol.  Considering this was looking like 55-60 on the euro a few days ago..not a bad turn of events.

Might be but pretty much in line with all other guidance

[CoastalWx]

Where is that from, Steve?

[CoastalWx]

It comes down to good lift. If it comes in strong, than it could surprise some folks, especially south of the Pike. If it comes in rather meager, than it won't be much.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I always feel the Wunderground Euro snow maps are displaced south a bit

No real proof, just what I remember

This is going to have to get good lift for those of us south of NH

[HoarfrostHubb]

It comes down to good lift. If it comes in strong, than it could surprise some folks, especially south of the Pike. If it comes in rather meager, than it won't be much.

Lol

[scoob40]

Local met here still calling for close to 50.

http://www.wwlp.com/dpp/weather/WWLP_Local_Forecast

[Ginx snewx]

Where is that from, Steve?

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Biggest NAM run of our lives.

Drier and wicked ugly.

[Ginx snewx]

It comes down to good lift. If it comes in strong, than it could surprise some folks, especially south of the Pike. If it comes in rather meager, than it won't be much.

I am not expecting anything but like you say if we get this heavy burst of lift that would be cool. System 1 will have tremendous impact on what transpires.

[Ginx snewx]

Biggest NAM run of our lives.

Drier and wicked ugly.

out to what hour/, you fool us

[Clinch Leatherwood]

out to what hour/, you fool us

Looks like it may hit 55 in CT by morning, Kev was right.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

All kidding aside...Euro was bad up until probably last night at the 0z.

0z NAM got drier. We're heading that way with the 12z, we'll end up seeing a solution not far from the Euro...probably wetter to some degree, but IMDB not sure we're seeing a hoard of QPF

[SouthCoastMA]

All kidding aside...Euro was bad up until probably last night at the 0z.

0z NAM got drier. We're heading that way with the 12z, we'll end up seeing a solution not far from the Euro...probably wetter to some degree, but IMDB not sure we're seeing a hoard of QPF

the 0z RSM/ETA/WRF meso models indicated this slower/drier appeal last night as well, at 0z. Seemed like bit of a red flag to me

[CoastalWx]

You can see what the result of big lift is. The GFS tries to give me like 2-3" of snow, but it's also important to see where the lift is. If it is more shallow, like850-750mb, then we have crappy snowgrowth and not much dynamic cooling. If there is deep lift, you have lift in the DGZ which overall would cause more cooling and better snow growth. So you can see how the uncertainty in this is kind of high.

[Ginx snewx]

You can see what the result of big lift is. The GFS tries to give me like 2-3" of snow, but it's also important to see where the lift is. If it is more shallow, like850-750mn, then we have crappy snowgrowth and not much dynamic cooling. If there is deep lift, you have lift in the DGZ which overall would cause more cooling and better snow growth. So you can see how the uncertainty in this is kind of high.

This is thumper the dumper for some of you guys

[CoastalWx]

NAM has mega lift moving into western ma and CT by 09z.

[CoastalWx]

NAM has strong frontogenesis and lift overhead at 12z. That would be fun for many, and a 33F snow at Logan probably.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

the 0z RSM/ETA/WRF meso models indicated this slower/drier appeal last night as well, at 0z. Seemed like bit of a red flag to me

below

NAM has mega lift moving into western ma and CT by 09z.

I'll ride the Euro on this one I think...esp if the 12z comes in a little wetter...10-30%.

I think the NAM is going to bust too moist, all the warning signs are there of a rapidly diminishing band of intense snow the question is just when it starts to crumble and at what rate.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, 70s in srn NJ and 30s here. Poor LL.

[Mr Torchey]

Win, win............snow for many while the +10 isotherm tickles my fancy! En fuego down here, nice temp gradient, enjoy the snow up there guys, looks like precip swings through here quickly, yielding to another gem on dowsloping west winds.