Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[N. OF PIKE]

euro fails to delivers the accumulation goods.

berks /mondads and weenie ridge may do well should the omega burst get in here later in the morning...think BL will torch and high elevations could be the only places that accumulate

[weatherMA]

euro fails to delivers the accumulation goods.

Can't really complain about 1-2" this year though.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro seems unsure of where to focus the dynamics...it def trended faster and had a nice punch of omega/qpf into SE NY State and starting to get into W SNE at 12z...but then it just dies....the 12z run hardly had any qpf at all into SNE by 12z Fri...so it trended faster and more robust with that front running stuff...we'll see if it continues...it certainly looks like its lagging the NCEP/Canadian guidance, but you never want to count the Euro out...sometimes it can be lagging and then pull a win 24 hours out.

[weatherMA]

Either way...no guidance really has a lot of rain anymore S of the pike. Either 2-4" of snow followed by zr, and -RA. Or 1" of snow and that's it per the euro?

[N. OF PIKE]

Euro seems unsure of where to focus the dynamics...it def trended faster and had a nice punch of omega/qpf into SE NY State and starting to get into W SNE at 12z...but then it just dies....the 12z run hardly had any qpf at all into SNE by 12z Fri...so it trended faster and more robust with that front running stuff...we'll see if it continues...it certainly looks like its lagging the NCEP/Canadian guidance, but you never want to count the Euro out...sometimes it can be lagging and then pull a win 24 hours out.

q

so were hoping the nam/gfs hold serve and euro makes a move qpf wise toward them at 12z tommorrow basically?

[Snow Bow]

Euro seems unsure of where to focus the dynamics...it def trended faster and had a nice punch of omega/qpf into SE NY State and starting to get into W SNE at 12z...but then it just dies....the 12z run hardly had any qpf at all into SNE by 12z Fri...so it trended faster and more robust with that front running stuff...we'll see if it continues...it certainly looks like its lagging the NCEP/Canadian guidance, but you never want to count the Euro out...sometimes it can be lagging and then pull a win 24 hours out.

How is qpf north of the ma/nh border on the euro?

[ORH_wxman]

q

so were hoping the nam/gfs hold serve and euro makes a move qpf wise toward them at 12z tommorrow basically?

Yeah pretty much...Euro def came in a lot colder and faster with the qpf...but it really weakens it as it crosses the the region so we don't get that impressive 3-5 hour thump of mod/heavy snow...its more like a "thump" of light snow...but given that the Euro seems to be trailing other guidance (which is surprising), its probably not unreasonable to think it might be better at 12z....however, I still wouldn't get expectations up as it could be right. One thing I've learned over the years is not to doubt the Euro too much...but it has shat the bed at times.

[weatherMA]

How is qpf north of the ma/nh border on the euro?

Wunderground shows like .2" for Bow.

[ORH_wxman]

How is qpf north of the ma/nh border on the euro?

It stinks. In fact I think KCON is probably in a total screw hole this run...maybe 0.10-0.15 total....the first main piece weakens across SNE (CON is too far north to get a whole lot from this)...then the second piece is more like N VT into the adjacent Canada towns.

[weatherMA]

Wunderground shows like .2" for Bow.

It stinks. In fact I think KCON is probably in a total screw hole this run...maybe 0.10-0.15 total....the first main piece weakens across SNE (CON is too far north to get a whole lot from this)...then the second piece is more like N VT into the adjacent Canada towns.

Not even I guess. LOL

[weatherMA]

When he gets up in two hours, Kevin will tell us to trust the euro, it probably gives him like an inch of snow too. 00z gfs and nam are kevins worst nightmare...borderline advisory for Will and Ray while Kevin sees some snow but not much.

[Snow Bow]

Wunderground shows like .2" for Bow.

On my phone or I would've looked. Thanks. Euro trails other guidance, comes in around 24-36 hrs before and steals the s(n)how at last minute. Sounds about right for this winter, but I'd like to see it be wrong and the nam score this time.

[ORH_wxman]

When he gets up in two hours, Kevin will tell us to trust the euro, it probably gives him like an inch of snow too. 00z gfs and nam are kevins worst nightmare...borderline advisory for Will and Ray while Kevin sees some snow but not much.

Well Kevin said zero snow south of the NH/MA border and that it won't trend colder....so he can't believe the Euro either.

[OSUmetstud]

Idk...I just don't believe what the Euro is selling.

In other news, nice surprise 3-4" paste job tonight in BUF. NWS had little to no accumulation and mid-30s rain/snow. A really nice 850 frontogenesis band just set up over the area for like 3 hours.

[Snow Bow]

It stinks. In fact I think KCON is probably in a total screw hole this run...maybe 0.10-0.15 total....the first main piece weakens across SNE (CON is too far north to get a whole lot from this)...then the second piece is more like N VT into the adjacent Canada towns.

Thanks Will, better for you guys down south than here and i've had 86% of climo to date in the snowfall category so I would like to see areas further south get something appreciable. Particularly Scott he needs a nice event, been terrible for him moreso than most. Ray too but I know he doesn't want 2-4.

[ORH_wxman]

Idk...I just don't believe what the Euro is selling.

In other news, nice surprise 3-4" paste job tonight in BUF. NWS had little to no accumulation and mid-30s rain/snow. A really nice 850 frontogenesis band just set up over the area for like 3 hours.

It bothers me slightly that it agrees fairly close to the Ukie...usually those two when in tandem are pretty unbeatable...but both trended toward NCEP guidance tonight too...so that is another red flag. I could see a compromise with the 00z camps. That would probably be like a 2-4" event for BOS-ORH (1-2" in one camp and 3-6" in the other)...but in this winter even an inch or two would be a win. I'll laugh if BOS gets 1.3" from this event to get their snowfall total to 9.1".

[Snow Bow]

Idk...I just don't believe what the Euro is selling.

In other news, nice surprise 3-4" paste job tonight in BUF. NWS had little to no accumulation and mid-30s rain/snow. A really nice 850 frontogenesis band just set up over the area for like 3 hours.

nice consolation prize in case you miss out on the main storm. Might even get more than here if euro is to be believed. Helps living next to a big lake sometimes doesn't it?

[OSUmetstud]

It bothers me slightly that it agrees fairly close to the Ukie...usually those two when in tandem are pretty unbeatable...but both trended toward NCEP guidance tonight too...so that is another red flag. I could see a compromise with the 00z camps. That would probably be like a 2-4" event for BOS-ORH (1-2" in one camp and 3-6" in the other)...but in this winter even an inch or two would be a win. I'll laugh if BOS gets 1.3" from this event to get their snowfall total to 9.1".

yeah it's tough...I just think the NAM/GFS combo has pretty stubborn with the strong primary and a really dynamic system. The Euro went from a perfect phase job to a POS. The tracks are similar but the dynamics aren't even close.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah it's tough...I just think the NAM/GFS combo has pretty stubborn with the strong primary and a really dynamic system. The Euro went from a perfect phase job to a POS. The tracks are similar but the dynamics aren't even close.

Euro and Ukie are holding that vortmax back rather then letting it get stung out to the east like the NCEP/Canadian guidance...but its been trending more stung out from the tighter jobs they have had the past few runs. So it might be a rare win for NCEP...a compromise from this point forward would be bad at all....we'll have to see. I'd expect to see 06z guidance trend toward Euro but then the 12z Euro to trend toward NCEP if I had to guess.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro says we do the SWFE thing all over again on 2/29-3/1...which isn't unreasonable given the more Nina like pattern...the KU type storm it showed earlier was unlikely. Nice high N of Maine on that one too.

[bboughton]

Wundermaps seems to give more snow to CT than to MA

[OSUmetstud]

Euro and Ukie are holding that vortmax back rather then letting it get stung out to the east like the NCEP/Canadian guidance...but its been trending more stung out from the tighter jobs they have had the past few runs. So it might be a rare win for NCEP...a compromise from this point forward would be bad at all....we'll have to see. I'd expect to see 06z guidance trend toward Euro but then the 12z Euro to trend toward NCEP if I had to guess.

I couldn't believe how far south the 00z NAM was...the majority of that was snow for me. That's most likely too far south. I'm thinking something similar to the 00z gfs...slightly weaker.

It's weird that in some respect the 12z Euro looked more like the GFS than the 00z Euro does.

[ORH_wxman]

Wundermaps seems to give more snow to CT than to MA

Those snowfall maps are a bit weenie-ish...i think they don't do a good job at finding marginal warm layers.

[ORH_wxman]

I couldn't believe how far south the 00z NAM was...the majority of that was snow for me. That's most likely too far south. I'm thinking something similar to the 00z gfs...slightly weaker.

It's weird that in some respect the 12z Euro looked more like the GFS than the 00z Euro does.

For SNE, the 00z Euro looks more like the GFS than the 12z Euro did...it gets precip in here faster and is colder....but it really weakens that batch coming into W SNE at 12z in the 12-18z frame. The 12z Euro was warmer and had almost no precip in here at 12z Fri. It did trend a bit more strung out with the vortmax at 00z...but still not nearly to the extent that the non-European guidance has it.

[H2Otown_WX]

Euro says we do the SWFE thing all over again on 2/29-3/1...which isn't unreasonable given the more Nina like pattern...the KU type storm it showed earlier was unlikely. Nice high N of Maine on that one too.

Is it just me, or is the 12z run always full of you know what compared to the 00z run? It seems in the mid-range the Euro has had a tendency lately to have weenie outcomes on its 12z run for whatever reason.

[OSUmetstud]

It seems like either the GFS or the GFS BUFKIT file omega got kinda messed up. BUF GFS profile has max omega around -20...but it's way up at 450mb..above the SGZ. The NAM has the max omega from below the SGZ through the SGZ at about -20...seems more reasonable give the majority of the liff from these type of events comes from low-level frontogenesis.

[ORH_wxman]

It seems like either the GFS or the GFS BUFKIT file omega got kinda messed up. BUF GFS profile has max omega around -20...but it's way up at 450mb..above the SGZ. The NAM has the max omega from below the SGZ through the SGZ at about -20...seems more reasonable give the majority of the liff from these type of events comes from low-level frontogenesis.

Don't be 100% sure...the 12/16/07 SWFE here had max lift in the 500mb region which is why the rates were like 2" per hour...the temp at 700mb in that event were like -2C...huge warm punch there....if there is a huge warm punch higher up than 850mb...then naturally the omega will be above that region...with a good LLJ at 750mb...then lift can be a bit higher. That said, 450mb sounds a bit high...but I wouldn't be shocked given the GFS warm nose at 700-750mb.

I've been following the lakes/midwest thread...it seems the Euro might be choking there in the short term which might lend us credence that its wrong for us too. (and you) Hopefully that is the case....I'd like to see a very strong shot of omega.

[OSUmetstud]

Don't be 100% sure...the 12/16/07 SWFE here had max lift in the 500mb region which is why the rates were like 2" per hour...the temp at 700mb in that event were like -2C...huge warm punch there....if there is a huge warm punch higher up than 850mb...then naturally the omega will be above that region...with a good LLJ at 750mb...then lift can be a bit higher. That said, 450mb sounds a bit high...but I wouldn't be shocked given the GFS warm nose at 700-750mb.

I've been following the lakes/midwest thread...it seems the Euro might be choking there in the short term which might lend us credence that its wrong for us too. (and you) Hopefully that is the case....I'd like to see a very strong shot of omega.

right...but it's got downward vertical motion from 650mb to the surface...which doesn't make a lot of sense. I know you can max out somewhat high...but it should be negative when you are getting that type of convergence/frontogenesis, I think.

[ORH_wxman]

right...but it's got downward vertical motion from 650mb to the surface...which doesn't make a lot of sense. I know you can max out somewhat high...but it should be negative when you are getting that type of convergence/frontogenesis, I think.

If the frontogenesis is strong enough above that level, then it could come out as downward in the 850-950 range....but yeah that does seem a bit extreme. I've seen it here before.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sleeping well...so I took a peak at the 06z NAM....looks colder for you Nick even though it was warmer early on around 18h. I wonder if that translates to SNE later on...it was warmer early on, but then went colder near the center.