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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted

That was it's highlight reel this season

Whatever has happened to Ekster?

I'm here. There hasn't been much to talk about at all this winter. I don't have much time to check in anymore when things are incredibly quiet. I am planning on going to the conference though as long as I get my leave approved.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

A 2-6" forecast always irked me. An odd range. Just as bad as 3-7".

Anyway, I would expect them to play this conservative until the last minute because they've been burned a few times this winter (the year without snow)

Hard to go advisory snows in the BOS-ORH corridor until the Euro decides it wants to joint the party...it might if the other 00z trends are any indication, but we've seen it go on its own before and be correct countless times. I think at least 1-3" is looking a lot more likely though...even the 12z Euro had a quick inch or two on the front. If it can go colder at 00z, then maybe the possibility of advisory snows becomes much higher.

SWFEs are quite quirky though and not easy to pin down. You can get some surprises when you have a really nice thump of omega in the SG region...and sometimes they can disappointment, especially when lift is weaker.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Harv was kind of conservative. Not much in MA, 2-6" in ski country. Nothing for Tolland.

Which is a smart and prudent approach. I'm a little excited at this point based on models and my latitude, however, I'm also not on tv issuing a public forecast. Go low and apologize later if we get nailed is a good policy for mets. this winter. So far there have been too many misses not to take that approach.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted

A 2-6" forecast always irked me. An odd range. Just as bad as 3-7".

Anyway, I would expect them to play this conservative until the last minute because they've been burned a few times this winter (the year without snow)

I suspect - not speaking for him of course - that he's doing 2" in the valleys and more up top. Boundary layer troubles.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

This storm is going to have a quick round of very strong lift moving through Friday morning. Strong WAA coupled with strong PDVA along with mid level frontogenesis ... 5"/3 hours for someone.

Hopefully some of the local SNE mountains can get something to at least have a good final weekend of Feb vacation. 1-3"/2-5" BOS metro would certainly get people in the spirit to go skiing.

After 60F today, I think people are thinking spring cleaning instead.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This storm is going to have a quick round of very strong lift moving through Friday morning. Strong WAA coupled with strong PDVA along with mid level frontogenesis ... 5"/3 hours for someone.

I'd like to see when the GFS BUFKIT profiles come out some big lift shooting up into the 500-600mb range because if its mostly underneath that level then we'll end up with worse snow growth and we won't get solid 15 to 1 ratios...probably more like 9 to 12 to 1 (9 to 1 being on the CP where it would be more of a paste job)

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I suspect - not speaking for him of course - that he's doing 2" in the valleys and more up top. Boundary layer troubles.

He seemed very optimistic for all areas aside of the hills of NE CT where a strong WAD signature would yield a quick flip.

Will et all, appreciate in advance the 1am update. Will be reading from the phone. I assume the UKIE was cold?

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

UK is cold, 42 hours the 0c at 8h hasn't made it to the MA border on the PSU maps. Precip can't tell, doesn't look super wet.

Thinking 3-6/4-8 most of the mountains.

Couldn't really tell on the Univ. of WY maps. At 42, 0C 850 line probably in extreme N ORH Co. But I think much of the precip has passed through by then. At 48, much of it has passed into NNE.

All and all, looks like a decent front end thump for much of SNE again.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

Ukie is pretty slow...I'd probably discount it given how slow it is...barely has any precip in here by 12z. Maybe .05-.10. It def trended colder though.

Yeah, very slow. Even gets a secondary going off the NJ coast that jets to the Gulf of ME with some appreciable backlash it appears (esp for the mountains), but even gets northern parts of MA - S NH.

After this passes...PF gets his additional 12"+ with upslope.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The GFS profile for ORH suggests there could be a period of heavy snow...its not 100% ideal, but not bad at all...it has a nice ribbon of 20-25 microbars per second getting in the SG region...the best lift is just below it though which is the unideal part, but with the lift of greater than 15 micros getting to 450mb..this deep layer lift suggests there could be a few hour period of heavy snow if its correct.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Well...I was out all night, great to see the trends at 00z tonight. Looks like with the SWFE motto in mind "snow starts early, sleet comes quick," we can guess this will probably be at 3am-7am type event for thumping snow here. The way this winter has gone, I may have to stay up for it tomorrow...esp. if it continues to trend colder :lol:

GFS bufkit shows 3.5" of snow at 9z followed by .18 accumulated precip as ice.

NAM bufkit shows (only) 3.4" surprisingly as I thought it would be more.

I'd def. be happy with 3-4" though...would be my 1st/2nd best event of the winter haha.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

i honestly don't really care (if it snow's at all) if it's snow to rain washing it away but so long as the ski resorts gets a nice moist 6 or so i'm happy.

i'm certainly not rooting for futility

lets get a few bowling balls rolling thru in late march that dump 5-10 inches of cement via closed low's goin ape shiat

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well...I was out all night, great to see the trends at 00z tonight. Looks like with the SWFE motto in mind "snow starts early, sleet comes quick," we can guess this will probably be at 3am-7am type event for thumping snow here. The way this winter has gone, I may have to stay up for it tomorrow...esp. if it continues to trend colder :lol:

GFS bufkit shows 3.5" of snow at 9z followed by .18 accumulated precip as ice.

NAM bufkit shows (only) 3.4" surprisingly as I thought it would be more.

I'd def. be happy with 3-4" though...would be my 1st/2nd best event of the winter haha.

BUFKIT will sometimes transition the ptype to sleet/ZR too early in a marginal sounding...I suspect that it what's its doing tonight. ORH is still all snow at 12z on the actual sounding of the GFS and NAM (NAM easily still snow at 36h). Sometimes when the sounding gets within 1C of 0C, BUFKIT likes to flip it. It usually over estimates the amount of sleet that falls. I usually will only be sleet here for an hour or two at most...then ZR. But once in a while we will get sleet bombed to death...but not normally in these types of SWFEs...its usually more like events like Vday 2007 or St. Patty's day 2007...where we have a sloped coastal system.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Euro qpf is not impressive at all...probably would only imply an inch or two on the front end (and then literally not much after that)...it looks like it really weakens the front running omega thump and this is due to the much slower timing. Its trying to hold back the energy....I'm not sure if its right though. But I wouldn't bet against it yet....however it has been trending toward other guidance rather than the other way around.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Euro is way colder than 12z...its actually a bit slow like the Ukie (not quite as slow, but still on the slow side)...only about 0.10" here by 12z, but 850 temps are around -3C here at 36h.

The timing of this event is killing me. I don't have school so I could stay up for it but if the euro is right it would be much smarter to go to bed and wake up early for it. Anyway, good to see it trend cooler. Can't really complain about timing the way this winter's gone. Hopefully I wake up to an advisory tomorrow....but I bet seeing how drastic the changes have been they wait till tomorrow afternoon.

edit: I guess the whole system is weak, but with the gfs and nam in agreement for about .6" here and at least 2/3 of that snow, its odd to see the euro so dry.

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