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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think that is the risk..a little more like the 18z GFS op, but just speculating. If the GFS had better lift, it would be a few inches of snow even for Will.

In the end I think even Socks is going to be almost all rain. No reason why this has/would trend cold..only warmer and wetter from here on out. I'd expect that trend to continue tonight

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

15z sref selected stations snow probs for 1"/2"/4"/8" fwiw.

ORH 45/37/18/0

BOS 37/26/7/0

CON 93/84/66/9

MHT 81/71/44/5

Looking at the individual sref members it looks like the further southern solution of the 15z srefs is being skewed by 3 members. Most have ORH getting like .5"....but 3 members have like 3-6".

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

15z sref selected stations snow probs for 1"/2"/4"/8" for fun.

ORH 45/37/18/0

BOS 37/26/7/0

CON 93/84/66/9

MHT 81/71/44/5

Looking at the individual sref members it looks like the further southern solution of the 15z srefs is being skewed by 3 members. Most have ORH getting like .5"....but 3 members have like 3-6".

Who cares what that crap spits out..No snow south of SNH..and many in Sne are south of warm front
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Scott...storm where nw ct may pick up a little while e ct sucks or totally lat dependent?

NW CT could pick up a bit, but it depends on the storm track. Probably may have an idea after the 00z runs come in. There would be some latitude dependency with this too. I could see the models hold serve and I would also not be surprised if they ticked NW a bit. I don't care for my personal reasons, but hopefully the interior can cash in. If this were to have a real good front end thump...even a GFS depiction would give snow to ORH. But, that will also depend on lift.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This is a sneaky dry polar airmass that settles over the region behind the low that strengthens to our northeast tomorrow. I could def see some snow on the front end...probably not more than an inch or two...but there is def a risk of omega-thumping for a few hours ala Jan 12th...I also think there is risk for several hours of icing for N ORH county and Socks' area.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

This is a sneaky dry polar airmass that settles over the region behind the low that strengthens to our northeast tomorrow. I could def see some snow on the front end...probably not more than an inch or two...but there is def a risk of omega-thumping for a few hours ala Jan 12th...I also think there is risk for several hours of icing for N ORH county and Socks' area.

I was thinking about that one at the gym earlier today...similar timing to this one too, it was supposed to just be like an inch tops I think, and flip to rain by 6-7am, I went to school, and we ripped parachute flakes off and on until almost 10 I think. Let's make that happen. I ended with around 3", tied for third highest total for met winter. :lol:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I was thinking about that one at the gym earlier today...similar timing to this one too, it was supposed to just be like an inch tops I think, and flip to rain by 6-7am, I went to school, and we ripped parachute flakes off and on until almost 10 I think. Let's make that happen. I ended with around 3", tied for third highest total for met winter. :lol:

A lot will depend on the lift like Scott said...if we have a stronger system bombing to our northeast then that will drive the boundary further south and give us a much better potential for good lift nosing right across our area...in a solution like the 18z GFS...it isn't as good with a more amped up primary low to the west which drives the best lift to our northwest and we are left with maybe an hour or two of snow to start before flipping...a stronger primary to the west not only makes it warmer in the mid-levels via advection...but also warmer because the lack of dynamical cooling with the best lift to our northwest. A weaker primary will shove the best lift further east and also lock in the low level cold better as well to where N ORH county might not get above freezing tomorrow afternoon....the Euro actually showed this potential for ZR....though it wasn't the greatest for snow potential...maybe an inch or two.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

A lot will depend on the lift like Scott said...if we have a stronger system bombing to our northeast then that will drive the boundary further south and give us a much better potential for good lift nosing right across our area...in a solution like the 18z GFS...it isn't as good with a more amped up primary low to the west which drives the best lift to our northwest and we are left with maybe an hour or two of snow to start before flipping...a stronger primary to the west not only makes it warmer in the mid-levels via advection...but also warmer because the lack of dynamical cooling with the best lift to our northwest. A weaker primary will shove the best lift further east and also lock in the low level cold better as well to where N ORH county might not get above freezing tomorrow afternoon....the Euro actually showed this potential for ZR....though it wasn't the greatest for snow potential...maybe an inch or two.

I assume you mean Friday. But yeah, at this point I'd take an inch or two, not sure I'd be awake for this storm though as it seems to be trending to a 6z start time.

I believe the 12z nam showed zr too, on the sounding is actually showed .27 accumulated rain with temps <32F.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I assume you mean Friday. But yeah, at this point I'd take an inch or two, not sure I'd be awake for this storm though as it seems to be trending to a 6z start time.

I believe the 12z nam showed zr too, on the sounding is actually showed .27 accumulated rain with temps <32F.

Yeah I meant Fri afternoon...not tomorrow.

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
Posted

15z sref selected stations snow probs for 1"/2"/4"/8" fwiw.

ORH 45/37/18/0

BOS 37/26/7/0

CON 93/84/66/9

MHT 81/71/44/5

Looking at the individual sref members it looks like the further southern solution of the 15z srefs is being skewed by 3 members. Most have ORH getting like .5"....but 3 members have like 3-6".

Wow, id have to go out on a very thick limb, more like a tree with an extra trunk and say that that 66% chance of 8" in concord might be slightly on the generous side as much as id love to see it lol.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

In the end I think even Socks is going to be almost all rain. No reason why this has/would trend cold..only warmer and wetter from here on out. I'd expect that trend to continue tonight

Thanks for the great analysis once again. There was no reason for the last storm to trend weaker and SE last storm with the +NAO.

Can't wait until I'm ripping SN and you're RA!

Wow, id have to go out on a very thick limb, more like a tree with an extra trunk and say that that 66% chance of 8" in concord might be slightly on the generous side as much as id love to see it lol.

Dude its 66% of 4", but good try.

I don't see much if any snow south of the NH/MA border with either event. JMHO.

I think the r/s may even creep back into SNH as far up as where I'm staying but we will see. R/S line likely ends up somewhere between Plaistow and Plymouth NH.

Thanks for going out on a limb there. Thats like saying the rain and snow line will be somewhere between the south coast and ORH... lol

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the great analysis once again. There was no reason for the last storm to trend weaker and SE last storm with the +NAO.

Can't wait until I'm ripping SN and you're RA!

Dude its 66% of 4", but good try.

Thanks boss, I'm used to the other 4 panel one that goes 1",4",8" and 12" so I assumed the third one was the 8" one.

Not really sure what you thought I was "trying"

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