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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I feel like NNE in general will do ok. Loon may get shadowed a bit with erly flow.

And lock in hr 186-192..lol.

You laugh but I actually kinda like that system -

No teleconnector support, BUT, the wave lengths from Hawaii to NF are shrunk up a bit during that particular time frame, and because of that, the standard statistical packages are less correlated.

Not a certainty by a long shot, of course, but something to consider; that and because the end of the month + has been flagged in the various operational tendencies for a while now.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

You laugh but I actually kinda like that system -

No teleconnector support, BUT, the wave lengths from Hawaii to NF are shrunk up a bit during that particular time frame, and because of that, the standard statistical packages are less correlated.

Not a certainty by a long shot, of course, but something to consider; that and because the end of the month + has been flagged in the various operational tendencies for a while now.

Yeah I think that timeframe looks decent for something in the northeast, but the overall pattern isn't pretty. It will come down to timing this right once again..but maybe we can get lucky.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Repeat after me.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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lol...man...12z euro is about as perfect as it could get for 3/1.

As I was just telling Scott

- there's a sneaking reason why that period of time bears watching. The wave lengths in the mean flow from the eastern Pac to D Straight have suddenly shrunk up; that means the standard teleconnector spread may not necessarily apply. As is, they are aweful, but shrink the wave lenghs? Eh, not sure the numbers work out the same -

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

Repeat after me.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I did not just look at the 12z Euro.

I know right...

-10C at 850. at hr 180 ... cant see soundings or go beyond 180 on wunderground but that just looks perfect. I think i'll join Will and be all in on 3/1 - not much to lose. Would love a storm that gets everyone from DC up the entire east coast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I just took a closer look at the details of the Euro run. Clearly, there is an attempt at 2ndary closer to the upper Del Marva Coast at hour 48. Then it scoots to ACK or just SE of their; meanwhile the primary decays up over eastern NY/VT. This solution would probably warm aloft some but we'd end up with a-geo drain in the lower 150mbs of the atmosphere over interior SNE. Not sure what that would mean precisely for p-types, but initially the atmosphere does support white.

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