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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

It actually has the secondary over the outer Cape. It develops that and still is slower than the GFS, but it sped up.

Probably just taking a step towards the nam and gfs. I have a hard time believing the euro is right with the slower timing, gfs and nam are in pretty good agreement of a Friday morning time frame.

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
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We're really on the line here...a shift of 50 miles in the track could make this go from a coating here to 4-6"...I still think the best snows will definitely be north although the Monadnocks could pull something off if the first wave amplifies enough to draw good CAA into New England. Partly sunny and 50.1F out there right now so we definitely need a better airmass in place for a mostly snow event.

It should be pretty close between me and you, im further north but you've got the elevation. You probably have the edge over me. This is as good a chance as we've had in a while though so who knows the worst that could happen is it rains right? This winter already reeks of failure what's one more nail in the coffin.

53.4 torchy degrees here, days like today do kind of make you think about spring but im still not quite ready for that yet.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Hows it look for NH Scott? Say from Plymouth NH north.

Looke like it give you about 4-6". You might mix with a little IP near Plymouth, but north and east of there look good. Might be mtns of Maine FTW here I think, as another batch of precip develops with the secondary, but most of that QPF may be closer to the warmer air....IE downeast Maine.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Euro snow weenie maps on wunderground are impressive

GGEM was the colder solution I've seen ... at least N of the CT/RI border with Mass. Fwiw, it had a few hours of snow Fri morning, then icing in the interior if you are in January but probably 33.4F rain at this time of the year. Also forces secondary to squeeze out underneath.

It may be that the CAA OSU' and Phil were talking about for behind tomorrows fropa is in fact offering a little bit more BL resistance than the GFS/NAM are modeling.

But...it's just one run of an iffy model performer -

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Looke like it give you about 4-6". You might mix with a little IP near Plymouth, but north and east of there look good. Might be mtns of Maine FTW here I think, as another batch of precip develops with the secondary, but most of that QPF may be closer to the warmer air....IE downeast Maine.

Thanks for the info. Wunderground maps are all we can look at right now. They show north of MA/NH border all snow basically. Is that accurate or are the wunderground maps off?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Thanks for the info. Wunderground maps are all we can look at right now. They show north of MA/NH border all snow basically. Is that accurate or are the wunderground maps off?

Euro looked like mostly snow north of KCON. Maybe a little sleet at the end from LCI to CON, but most of it was snow. Verbatim, it sort of skipped parts of interior Maine from the good QPF, but that may be because it's trying to develop the low near CHH. Anyways, mtns of Maine probably would be ok.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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lol, The king was jousted off the throne

Until another storm opportunity comes up and it wins that..lol.

There are some things to take from both models, that's what I always try to tell kevin. I told him yesterday that the euro was too wound up. But the GFS probably will have more of a secondary, than it shows. So you blend it in, and you have a decent forecast.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Thanks Scott. We're not set on where we will ski. If it shoves north hopefully Bretton Woods. South we'll do one of the closer joints like waterville or loon. Is what it is, more about getting on the mountain than location this go round'

I feel like NNE in general will do ok. Loon may get shadowed a bit with erly flow.

And lock in hr 186-192..lol.

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