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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

That low over Nova Scotia ending up a bit stronger would help BUF and CNE, actually. But I doubt there's enough time to see a big shift like that.

unfortunately i think it's already helping as much as it can...going from a 1000-ish low a few days ago to now looking like a 988-er...

i think it's helping to feed in some "potential / conditional" cold into the northeast...allows for a good thump over C/NNE

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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unfortunately i think it's already helping as much as it can...going from a 1000-ish low a few days ago to now looking like a 988-er...

i think it's helping to feed in some "potential / conditional" cold into the northeast...allows for a good thump over C/NNE

it certainly is helping...just wondering if it could help more.

Difference between the Euro and the GFS are like night and day.

I actually think the Euro will fold pretty decisively at 12z.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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With the sun climbing higher by day and it currently being 53F with light wind here at the office - it's ... it's almost arresting on winter desires, really.

It would be nice either way in my mind - win win. I just hope that we don't get lousy weather in spring. Missing a big snow storms sucks, and suffering a bad winter ...etc, notwithstanding. But nothing gets to me like a toxic April/May.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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it certainly is helping...just wondering if it could help more.

Difference between the Euro and the GFS are like night and day.

I actually think the Euro will fold pretty decisively at 12z.

And Kevin will post, "Euro FTW!" :huh:

j/K ... seriously though, over the long haul it may in fact be the better model, but if indeed it does fold - and there is a palpable feeling that it will - and then goes on to verify, this last 3 days of modeling will have the GFS crushing it. I think it is the native progressivity to the flow, and seeing as the GFS has a bit of a bias in that regard anyway, the flow et al is more conducive to its success perhaps.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Yeah I'm feeling good about 12"+ at least at the mountain.  A few inches tomorrow followed by 6" on Friday then upslope well into Saturday.  Nice snowy weekend finally.  

12z GFS and NAM look good.

Could be the weekend you have been waiting for all winter long, wet base with upslope powdah on top.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I get the humor ...but, the underpinning fact that you are heavily biased in favor of the ECM gets you into trouble on this particular system.

I mean ...why? All evidence to the contrary goes against every run of the Euro's big phased solution - why are you ignoring the fact that it was off with that?

Nothing's verified just yet... but, all prognostic indicators for the time being appear that the GFS will have SMOKED the Euro for 3 solid days worth of runs up through 00z last night.

Both models sucked on this one. The phased bomb ain't happening..but neither is the GFS over Buffalo or it's weak fropa it had 2-3 days ago

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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And Kevin will post, "Euro FTW!" :huh:

j/K ... seriously though, over the long haul it may in fact be the better model, but if indeed it does fold - and there is a palpable feeling that it will - and then goes on to verify, this last 3 days of modeling will have the GFS crushing it. I think it is the native progressivity to the flow, and seeing as the GFS has a bit of a bias in that regard anyway, the flow et al is more conducive to its success perhaps.

the euro is definitely the better model but what people miss is..the GFS can still occasionally beat it, and the 12 hour advantage is huge. The 12z GFS at 48 hours will have a higher verification score than the Euro at 60 hours.

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
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I guess MHT to CON is an important place to watch this...could get anywhere from rain to a nice 6-8" thump.

Seems like with every storm this year that had a chance of producing more than an inch or two, I've ended up right on the fringe of being just far enough north to know there will be some snow and not far enough south to not want to pay attention because you know it's going to be all rain. Hard to really get too invested but I seem to have been on the 50/50 chance of rain/snow line every time there was a shot this year. Better odds than some, I know.

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