Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

the thurs system getting its act together sooner is really helping out the friday event for the north country. two-fold assistance as you get a much stronger push of CAA behind it and it's helping to keep the follow-up system flatter. if the trend continues, wouldn't be surprised if some areas in C/N NE stay all frozen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Jeff you don"t like system 1? that seems like a sneaky good time for you

too warm on that one

Steve, I look to be torchy in the BL for the 1st one unless the nam is wrong and it tracks further south, # 2 is agood front end thump before we taint then drz once the low passes but most of the damage should already be done, SR is going to probably get a dbbl whammie though

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Steve, I look to be torchy in the BL for the 1st one unless the nam is wrong and it tracks further south, # 2 is agood front end thump before we taint then drz once the low passes but most of the damage should already be done, SR is going to probably get a dbbl whammie though

Yea I just looked at soundings, just to your North in elevation is where you want to be on the NAM, system 1 sets you up good though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Adam AMPSU said

'I'm definitely concerned about busting the period post March 7. There is quite a large difference between the Roundy MJO guidance (which shows the MJO zipping through the phase space, getting into P7 by March 11 and P1 by the 18th) and the Euro Weekly Ensemble (which shows the MJO in P5 and P6 at those same periods, respectively). The Roundy guidance would bring cold back to the East much more quickly than the Euro, which shows very warm temps through its Week 3 and Week 4 periods.

Solar off-setting...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

LOL..you mean the one that was sheared out and then at 00z was over BUF..

The GFS has been in the vicinity of BUF for at least 4 runs...it was there at 12z and 18z yesterday..no sheared out. It really intensifies the northern stream just like the NAM...the Euro does a partial phase with the southern stream and keeps the northern stream weak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Seein' as the GFS is nearer to a coup on this next system (00z ECM having been reviewed) ... Will might like this. The 384 hour accumulated snow fall off the 06z GFS is over 24 inches for interior N-central mass. Granted in March there will be some slop and melt-off between the events, but there were 3 bigger snow producing events on that run.

Unfortunately, looking over the particulars, much of that appears "accidental" (fractal) in nature, having small perturbations cutting off just perfectly over the top of a SE persistent ridge - doesn't make a lot sense.

Anyway, yes ... the 00z Euro came east and with less overall insane rage - it should change the title of this thread to something tamer seeing as the title was based purely on mocking effort. I still maintain, thought, that this morning's initialization is particularly of more importance as both previous models depiction timing, combined with observed WV imagery show that a bigger chunk of the S/W mass is now moving over land in the Pac NW.

There are a few options on the table for what this will ultimately mean down over the eastern U.S., but these SE heights, and balanced mid level geostrophic wind velociities are out of phase for a lot of digging potential. I think conserving the progressive nature to the flow is the best bet. That could still mean significant cyclogenesis, but a low origina and track from the deep SE then up the seaboard Miller A style is not favored in this circulation type. I could see a wave in the OV passing to and through NE, whether a tad N or S notwithstanding. NJ model low perhaps ... but would like to see more BL forcing; we may be cold aloft, but you really need the 1000-850mb cold to offer resistance to cyclonic curvature propagating inland. Otherwise, the mean of all the guidance types I've seen with regard to the vort max placements combined with a warmish lower level isn't really conducive to forcing the low track S of LI. Of course...the other option is that the Pac NW S/W comes in more powerful, and that would "cut" into the SE height wall a little more, and a slightly southerly vort track would result - that's more of the needle threading thing...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been in the vicinity of BUF for at least 4 runs...it was there at 12z and 18z yesterday..no sheared out. It really intensifies the northern stream just like the NAM...the Euro does a partial phase with the southern stream and keeps the northern stream weak.

When the Euro was over Buffalo and phased over N maine....the GFS was sheared out and basically a fropa.lol..total garbage

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

holy disagreement...NAM/GFS are heavy rain but not too far from a snowstorm around here and the Euro is way to the SE such that I barely get precip. Weird.

All depends on picking up that southern energy. That really sets off the secondary development along the coast on the Euro

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

You and the GFS cult followers FTL. Euro and me FTW

I get the humor ...but, the underpinning fact that you are heavily biased in favor of the ECM gets you into trouble on this particular system.

I mean ...why? All evidence to the contrary goes against every run of the Euro's big phased solution - why are you ignoring the fact that it was off with that?

Nothing's verified just yet... but, all prognostic indicators for the time being appear that the GFS will have SMOKED the Euro for 3 solid days worth of runs up through 00z last night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...