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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, you and Will have been beating your chest about the 3/1 timeframe for a number of days now. When y'all talk, I listen.

Well maybe not beating our chest..lol, but it has looked like something may be around. I hope at this point. Nothing really else to say since it's still pretty far out.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I like this discussion, if I am interpreting it correctly, for the slower further south solution. It is the model diagnostic from HPC.

THE NCEP GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT GFS...NAM...AND SREF

MEAN/ IS COMPARATIVELY MUCH QUICKER/STRONGER WITH ENERGY EJECTING

OUT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...EVEN

MORESO THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...BUT IT HAS

PICKED UP THE PACE SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN.

TELECONNECTION-WISE...INCREASED RIDGING UPSTREAM AND A SPOKE OF

THE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN HUDSON BAY/NUNAVUT

SHOULD ENSURE A SLOWER RATHER THAN A QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THIS

FEATURE...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY EJECT

OUT IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE GFS

AND GEFS/RSM MEMBERS CAN BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE

WESTERLIES...WHICH FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.

WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE...THE MORE NORTHERN GUIDANCE /GFS AND

CANADIAN/ HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THEIR PAST DAY

OR TWO OF RUNS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER ITS

PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY

SOUTHEAST OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO

THE MODELS ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SURFACE LOW IN

THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY /SHOWN ON THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS A

FEW DAYS AGO PER GFS AND UKMET INPUT AT THE TIME BUT DROPPED IN

THE DAYS SINCE/...WHICH NOW THAT THEY ALL FINALLY AGREE WILL

EXIST...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WHICH FORCES THIS

UPSTREAM WAVE TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. SINCE THERE HAS

BEEN A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE MORE

NORTHWARD 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /GEFS AND CANADIAN BASED/

CAN BE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT. ONCE ELIMINATED FROM CONSIDERATION...A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET OR 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF LIES WITHIN

THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING...IS CLOSEST TO THE GUIDANCE

WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY...AND IS PREFERRED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I like this discussion, if I am interpreting it correctly, for the slower further south solution. It is the model diagnostic from HPC.

THE NCEP GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT GFS...NAM...AND SREF

MEAN/ IS COMPARATIVELY MUCH QUICKER/STRONGER WITH ENERGY EJECTING

OUT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...EVEN

MORESO THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...BUT IT HAS

PICKED UP THE PACE SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN.

TELECONNECTION-WISE...INCREASED RIDGING UPSTREAM AND A SPOKE OF

THE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN HUDSON BAY/NUNAVUT

SHOULD ENSURE A SLOWER RATHER THAN A QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THIS

FEATURE...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY EJECT

OUT IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE GFS

AND GEFS/RSM MEMBERS CAN BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE

WESTERLIES...WHICH FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.

WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE...THE MORE NORTHERN GUIDANCE /GFS AND

CANADIAN/ HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THEIR PAST DAY

OR TWO OF RUNS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER ITS

PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY

SOUTHEAST OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO

THE MODELS ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SURFACE LOW IN

THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY /SHOWN ON THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS A

FEW DAYS AGO PER GFS AND UKMET INPUT AT THE TIME BUT DROPPED IN

THE DAYS SINCE/...WHICH NOW THAT THEY ALL FINALLY AGREE WILL

EXIST...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WHICH FORCES THIS

UPSTREAM WAVE TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. SINCE THERE HAS

BEEN A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE MORE

NORTHWARD 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /GEFS AND CANADIAN BASED/

CAN BE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT. ONCE ELIMINATED FROM CONSIDERATION...A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET OR 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF LIES WITHIN

THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING...IS CLOSEST TO THE GUIDANCE

WITH THE BEST CONTINUITY...AND IS PREFERRED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

This discussion is loaded with caution flags, But they are acknowledging the SE trend due to the Thurs Vort

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

06z GFS is snow even for Dendrite and down to Socks for a time.

It gets ugly pretty quickly though at 60, much too warm for the Monadnocks as the low winds up over NY State:

I'm also a little concerned for BL temperatures given that it's supposed to be nearly 50F today here. That first wave should bring some CAA but still think it could be a non-accumulating slop, especially if models shift west again.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

It gets ugly pretty quickly though at 60, much too warm for the Monadnocks as the low winds up over NY State:

I'm also a little concerned for BL temperatures given that it's supposed to be nearly 50F today here. That first wave should bring some CAA but still think it could be a non-accumulating slop, especially if models shift west again.

This is a case where the trend might be your friend....it is about time you benefit from being >1K in the Monads.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It gets ugly pretty quickly though at 60, much too warm for the Monadnocks as the low winds up over NY State:

I'm also a little concerned for BL temperatures given that it's supposed to be nearly 50F today here. That first wave should bring some CAA but still think it could be a non-accumulating slop, especially if models shift west again.

Well yeah you weren't all snow, but it gave you some. I definitely would be concerned for warmer temps since you are on the line and models could wiggle west. As of now, seems like you could see some snow and sleet. Even BOS had the risk of sleet in the onset.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if Bethel in Maine will be too warm. Maybe a trip to Sugarloaf is in order.

dude, just dude

WITHPERHAPS MOST AREAS SEEING A DECENT THUMP OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNINGINTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP A BIT AND THE BESTFORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES NORTHEAST. SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL ZONESWILL SEE LESS SNOW...AND THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY SEE THE MOSTAS IS USUALLY THE CASE

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

dude, just dudeWITHPERHAPS MOST AREAS SEEING A DECENT THUMP OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNINGINTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP A BIT AND THE BESTFORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES NORTHEAST. SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL ZONESWILL SEE LESS SNOW...AND THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY SEE THE MOSTAS IS USUALLY THE CASE

Are you excited for our <40* rain?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Adam AMPSU said

'I'm definitely concerned about busting the period post March 7. There is quite a large difference between the Roundy MJO guidance (which shows the MJO zipping through the phase space, getting into P7 by March 11 and P1 by the 18th) and the Euro Weekly Ensemble (which shows the MJO in P5 and P6 at those same periods, respectively). The Roundy guidance would bring cold back to the East much more quickly than the Euro, which shows very warm temps through its Week 3 and Week 4 periods.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Adam AMPSU said

'I'm definitely concerned about busting the period post March 7. There is quite a large difference between the Roundy MJO guidance (which shows the MJO zipping through the phase space, getting into P7 by March 11 and P1 by the 18th) and the Euro Weekly Ensemble (which shows the MJO in P5 and P6 at those same periods, respectively). The Roundy guidance would bring cold back to the East much more quickly than the Euro, which shows very warm temps through its Week 3 and Week 4 periods.

Sounds like the Euro has a good handle on things, Don S. likes March 1985 for the east, he has been spot on perfect.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Sounds like the Euro has a good handle on things,

That is not what I am saying at all. The last time there was large disagreement between Roundy and the Euro (remember all the consternation about whether the MJO would get to P8 about 3 weeks ago?), Roundy won handily. I'm worried that my warm forecast after the 10th will bust.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

That is not what I am saying at all. The last time there was large disagreement between Roundy and the Euro (remember all the consternation about whether the MJO would get to P8 about 3 weeks ago?), Roundy won handily. I'm worried that my warm forecast after the 10th will bust.

I just saw what you are referring to. That's interesting.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Holy fook, Just took peak at the Euro, Looks like it moved towards the Gfs, I guess the cutter is off the table for know,messenger was right,This the 1-5 chance the euro could be wrong

Tip, to me the Euro has issues with any deep feature in the s/w. Sometimes it misses closed lows and represents them as weaker impulses, sometimes it goes the other way. This time in 12 hours it shifted that feature stronger and as a result 300-500 miles west in Big Texas. That dramatically changes what happens well NE.

Dryslot, we'll see. It was definitely wrong in the handling of that feature but beyond that who knows. It's a rare miss for the Euro but easy to see in the sense that it's one of those key differences that stuck out, is in a region where it seems to have some problems from time to time...and didn't make much sense.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Tip, to me the Euro has issues with any deep feature in the s/w. Sometimes it misses closed lows and represents them as weaker impulses, sometimes it goes the other way. This time in 12 hours it shifted that feature stronger and as a result 300-500 miles west in Big Texas. That dramatically changes what happens well NE.

Dryslot, we'll see. It was definitely wrong in the handling of that feature but beyond that who knows. It's a rare miss for the Euro but easy to see in the sense that it's one of those key differences that stuck out, is in a region where it seems to have some problems from time to time...and didn't make much sense.

Scott, I am cautiously optimistic going forward here on this threat after the winter we have had so far nothing is set in stone even approaching the last 24hrs with any of these models, We will just monitor the trends...

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