Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

hard to believe the GFS is going to botch it this bad. Euro for some reason is in phase fantasy land. It's rushing that energy across the Baja etc...GFS ain't buying it and I think its probably the normal Euro bias.

Track ends up similar around 48ish, but without the uber phase.

I bring the snow almost every time I head north. Outlaws arrive Thursday night and I'll make a hasty exit north with the snow on my heels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's a little ugly outside of the NNE higher elevations.

You are all snow on that second system (the Friday into Saturday one)... GFS lingers snow across all of NNE/CNE into Saturday. Impressive.

Its like a 24 hour storm on the GFS... still going on Saturday morning.

gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Biggest QPF event of the season on the American models.

gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

hard to believe the GFS is going to botch it this bad. Euro for some reason is in phase fantasy land. It's rushing that energy across the Baja etc...GFS ain't buying it and I think its probably the normal Euro bias.

Track ends up similar around 48ish, but without the uber phase.

I bring the snow almost every time I head north. Outlaws arrive Thursday night and I'll make a hasty exit north with the snow on my heels.

The Euro bias was to hold SW energy too long though -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Canadian and UKMET came in a bit colder for Friday too...but I really do not think this will mean much for 98% of the forum...well unless we count maybe an inch or two of junk on the front end for some of us interior folk...but eh...in terms of advisory or better. It will definitely have powderfreak doing naked cartwheels in his bedroom community and posting 7 posts to himself about upslope though...should be good up there. At least we'll be able to see some decent snow for someone.

Maybe dendrite to dryslot can cash in on Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

stowe can continue to enjoy a winter while the rest of new england can **** in a hat

i gotta get to stowe

Well to be fair, its been a pretty much complete garbage winter in Powderfreak's town too...but its all relative to average. They will still have snow to ski on and some snow pack even in garbage winters...and of course at 3400 feet on Mt. Mansfield will always have snow in the biggest abortion of winters. But its been pretty bad there too....but if this storm and upslope behind it happens as modeled, then they will get a nice boost toward climo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I suspect 12z this next morning might be more important because the 00z initialization still has the N stream dynamics over the lower Alaskan gulf area just off-shore the Pac NW. If that comes in stronger, it will dig more and effectively capture this southern stream that heretofore the GFS runs keep bi-passing - tonight's run is no different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

ya will for me and i can't weight this enough is......that if i had continual snow pack for the winter i wouldn't really be upset if my ave. is 210"YTD and i received 125" and i wouldn't really care if temps were running 5F above ave. if it was enough to keep the snowpack and ski conditons were decent.

I mean if he had 35" more inches but had 3 MORE cutters in the last 6 weeks i wouldn't say that (alternative) winter was better...perhaps worse...to me there is more to the grading of a winter than the final snowfall stats and temp departures.

but this is just me

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

ya will for me and i can't weight this enough is......that if i had continual snow pack for the winter i wouldn't really be upset if my ave. is 210"YTD and i received 125" and i wouldn't really care if temps were running 5F above ave. if it was enough to keep the snowpack and ski conditons were decent.

I mean if he had 35" more inches but had 3 MORE cutters in the last 6 weeks i wouldn't say that (alternative) winter was better...perhaps worse...to me there is more to the grading of a winter than the final snowfall stats and temp departures.

but this is just me

Yeah we have all our own expectations a lot of it is relative to climo...we always say "I'd be happy with a crap winter there"...which is true while we live where we are....but then after living there for a while then it becomes annoying if you are running way below average in the snow department, whether there is snow pack or not. I remember having lived in Texas and getting no snow for 3 winters in a row (literally nothing) just thinking I'd be happy every winter to see snow a few times....back then I'd never think that I would be annoyed at getting like 30 or 40 inches of snow in a season, but I've been appalled by those winters many times since including this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Lol, Euro tracks the storm over CHH...never brings the 0C 850 line NW of SNH...it comes in two pulses though unlike other guidance...it still has a more robust low around 78h from deeper trough....the first wave goes south of SNE of 66h and might bring light snow to interior spots in MA...second wave is more robust...more snow for CNE/NNE...but possibly some ice for N ORH county and Cheshire county and GC...we'll see if it goes colder in future runs...def no bomb in W NY idea anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Lol, Euro tracks the storm over CHH...never brings the 0C 850 line NW of SNH...it comes in two pulses though unlike other guidance...it still has a more robust low around 78h from deeper trough....the first wave goes south of SNE of 66h and might bring light snow to interior spots in MA...second wave is more robust...more snow for CNE/NNE...but possibly some ice for N ORH county and Cheshire county and GC...we'll see if it goes colder in future runs...def no bomb in W NY idea anymore.

Does it throw much precip back here? Looks cold enough. The wunderground maps are being a little funky with euro updates, lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Does it throw much precip back here? Looks cold enough. The wunderground maps are being a little funky with euro updates, lately.

Its pretty much a complete whiff for BUF on the synoptic stuff...maybe .05-.10..but it does have some LES behind it..but it looks mostly south of the city though close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...