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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Eh, the OP Euro was out to sea too...probably ought to punt it.

All kidding aside, who knows...at least the period looks to be getting more active as advertised. Maybe we can trend this into a 3-4 hour thump of snow on Friday. Looks like the Feb 27 event might be a cutter though ensembles suggested some colder solutions as well, so I guess we'll see.

In a way I feel like a cutter would be better, because the front would be close to the East Coast with maybe some energy left behind.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I think one of the best threats that trended colder, was the Dec 2003 snow storm. I think 4 days out it looked like a cutter.

The other more recent one, was the NYE storm on 12/31/08. I went away to NH and it looked like a low crossing SNE. I came back 60 hrs later, and I was pegged to get 6-10". That was a good one.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think one of the best threats that trended colder, was the Dec 2003 snow storm. I think 4 days out it looked like a cutter.

The other more recent one, was the NYE storm on 12/31/08. I went away to NH and it looked like a low crossing SNE. I came back 60 hrs later, and I was pegged to get 6-10". That was a good one.

Last year, actually, the Euro ...pretty much it's only blown call all season long, was a Cleveland cut at just 72 hours out... GFS won that one ;) It came east.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I think one of the best threats that trended colder, was the Dec 2003 snow storm. I think 4 days out it looked like a cutter.

The other more recent one, was the NYE storm on 12/31/08. I went away to NH and it looked like a low crossing SNE. I came back 60 hrs later, and I was pegged to get 6-10". That was a good one.

12/19/08 trended colder too...but from about d6-7...it pegged as a cutter in that time frame and then turned into a cold SWFE. Its def gonna take some work on the Fri event given its pretty close...it would be more interesting if it was 96h out instead of 72h out.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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Today we hiked the Quinebaug valley trail, call me crazy but today had a different feel to it, not that April smell, feel like it has been. IDK just seemed different, maybe we get a break.

Yup, felt that way in the yard today then my old farmer neighbor told me we were due one more big hit this winter. Hopefully intuition overrides wishful thinking and either way at least the mets on the thread can enlighten us with sensibility. lol

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Last year, actually, the Euro ...pretty much it's only blown call all season long, was a Cleveland cut at just 72 hours out... GFS won that one ;) It came east.

I was just thinking back to the memorable ones from the past. I miss the days of models busts. Now, they are getting to good. I still remember the moment where I was, when Barbara Conrad (remember her!) read the FOUS from the eta on air and said.."wow, looks like we are getting a snow storm." This is for the Jan '96 blizzard. That storm wasn't that big of a deal for most, but I got 24-26" where I was and it broke my 2' snowstorm cherry. Finally.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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12/19/08 trended colder too...but from about d6-7...it pegged as a cutter in that time frame and then turned into a cold SWFE. Its def gonna take some work on the Fri event given its pretty close...it would be more interesting if it was 96h out instead of 72h out.

That's right..I remember that.

I know...looking at the model saying 72 hrs is discouraging..lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I was just thinking back to the memorable ones from the past. I miss the days of models busts. Now, they are getting to good. I still remember the moment where I was, when Barbara Conrad (remember her!) read the FOUS from the eta on air and said.."wow, looks like we are getting a snow storm." This is for the Jan '96 blizzard. That storm wasn't that big of a deal for most, but I got 24-26" where I was and it broke my 2' snowstorm cherry. Finally.

Well we had last year with Boxing day and the 1/27 storm...those were pretty epic busts inside 48 hours.

I think I posted the 12 hour forecast for the 18z NAM on the 1/27/11 storm in my workshop presentation this summer and it showed basically no snow NW of the a BOS-PVD line.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Well we had last year with Boxing day and the 1/27 storm...those were pretty epic busts inside 48 hours.

I think I posted the 12 hour forecast for the 18z NAM on the 1/27/11 storm in my workshop presentation this summer and it showed basically no snow NW of the a BOS-PVD line.

Yeah can't forget those...but that's pretty rare nowadays. That was an epic bust...one of the best of all time, even with numerical models this good. The 12/26 bust was amazing.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
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Nobody is thinking that. The euro has moved east in the last few ones, but like we said...the only people that probably care...are those in NNE.

Not exactly.

Warning criteria snows and solid period of upslope enhancement across a large portion of VT on the 18z GFS. Nice.

I'm getting psyched for some good snows. I've got some new planks I'm ready to stress test.

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neweathereye

neweathereye

Posted
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I for one love the DGEX model run..not that it would come true..but living in Augusta Maine now...It would be nice to see some serious snow here for once this winter! Hopefully the GFS and Euro follow the trend! It was hard to read the qpf numbers on the map,but it looked as though it was close or over the 2" mark..

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
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I haven't been on here much lately in light of the severe weather depression that has afflicted me after this past weekend's whiff, but the Friday-Saturday situation has me interested for WNE. Even if a more phased solution on the Euro verifies, this is looking like a classic upslope event on the backside. In fact, the Euro could mean a monster upslope event for ski areas in VT and some accumulating snows all the way down here into the Berks later Saturday after the cold front. A deep, moist vertically stacked low going just north of the US/Canada border is a perfect recipe for big time upslope. This is looking like the best upslope potential since the 1/13 event for many in WNE, and it may be better than that for some, especially in VT. Mt. Mansfield and Jay Peak could be measuring feet the way Boston measures inches. With the Great Lakes unfrozen, they may be able to help us out more than usual for this time of year as well. Closed lows, lingering moisture, CAA, and cross barrier flow are the main ingredients for significant upslope snow in WNE.

If a less phased solution verifies (a la GFS), we stand a good chance to get front ended and keep NNE snow. Heck, the 18Z GFS appears to be keeping the Berks north of I-90 mostly snow. Not sure I buy it yet, but it's interesting. Even the GFS gets WNE good on the backside with lingering deformation and upslope. Overall, a less phased solution is better for snow around here...pretty much the polar opposite of last weekend when we were all rooting for phasing. Although the Euro could mean some pain initially, I think many in ski country are going to be happy in the end, regardless of which solution verifies.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Well some are talking about it snowing in Mass. When will people learn?

We were just saying what it showed...not predicting it. I won't be surprised if parts of MA do see a bit of snow/sleet to start...even the Euro showed it at the onset for like an hour or two between 72-78 hours. But I highly doubt the high end advisory to borderline warning criteria snow that the GFS showed north of the pike or Rt 2.

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