Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[dendrite]

LOL yeah. Probably won't be anything but that signal has been there for someone in the northeast.

There is strangely high QPF over a wide area with that for a d8-9 ens mean run.

[SouthCoastMA]

I liked Will's comment on it last night

Are you all in?

Screw playing it safe, it's almost March. Time to put all the chips on the table. Go big or go home.

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS has higher resolution than the GGEM.

GGEM: .03 by .25 lat/lon grid

GFS: .5 by .5

[Tropopause_Fold]

GGEM: .03 by .25 lat/lon grid

GFS: .5 by .5

i think its ~28km to ~33km in favor of the GFS

[dendrite]

i think its ~28km to ~33km in favor of the GFS

Yes

[Typhoon Tip]

Do you remember that story about the elephant trainer who lubed up his arm with some kind of oil ... then inserted it up the anus of the animal in an attempt to relieve the animal of an intense bout of impacted constipation ?

The Pacific is the elephant, the U.S. is the idiot trainer -

It wasn't a good day for the trainer, not for a long sight. He's dead. The elephant's ass immediately exponged aboout 500 pounds of fecal matter in a great rush, and it crushed the trainer's sternum. He died almost instantly. I think this may have even been and entry in the Darwin Awards -

We've been waiting all winter for anything at all to happen, now the Pac is shooting S/W after wave down stream over N/A and they all are pieces of schit!

[Typhoon Tip]

i think its ~28km to ~33km in favor of the GFS

Huh, what are the sources for that information -

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yes

yeah i think after the GFS upgrade a couple of years back it moved ahead of the ggem vertically (i think) and horizontally

[ChrisM]

Do you remember that story about the elephant trainer who lubed up his arm with some kind of oil ... then inserted it up the anus of the animal in an attempt to relieve the animal of an intense bout of impacted constipation ?

The Pacific is the elephant, the U.S. is the idiot trainer -

It wasn't a good day for the trainer, not for a long sight. He's dead. The elephant's ass immediately exponged aboout 500 pounds of fecal matter in a great rush, and it crushed the trainer's sternum. He died almost instantly. I think this may have even been and entry in the Darwin Awards -

We've been waiting all winter for anything at all to happen, now the Pac is shooting S/W after wave down stream over N/A and they all are pieces of schit!

LOLLLLL

[Tropopause_Fold]

Huh, what are the sources for that information -

my brain...and the internet.

[moneypitmike]

There is strangely high QPF over a wide area with that for a d8-9 ens mean run.

Nothing says "get excited" like things that include the phrase d8-9.

Maybe a little whitening tonight.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So whats the verdict on Tip's nude bomb? Is the EURO too far west?

I'm betting the euro is overboard here. Every single event all winter has trended SE and weaker in close.

BRB going to ask the M/A folks what they think.

[dryslot]

So whats the verdict on Tip's nude bomb? Is the EURO too far west?

I'm betting the euro is overboard here. Every single event all winter has trended SE and weaker in close.

BRB going to ask the M/A folks what they think.

See you in a couple days

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah i think after the GFS upgrade a couple of years back it moved ahead of the ggem vertically (i think) and horizontally

Yeah it may be that most information resources are not updating the statistics yet -

Eh, whatever.... Neither model looks like it's handling the next week's worth of events very well.

[Tropopause_Fold]

See you in a couple days

[Typhoon Tip]

my brain...and the internet.

Yeah, again ...I think that all the sites out there are just not updated... Haha - I went to f* NCEP its self and the docs are dated 2003

Don't tell us a memo can't be written because of funding! jaggovs

Anyway, I keep getting .5X.5 for the GFS, and slightly better .3X.25 for the GGEM, but if anyone has a more recent resource, by all means enlighten -

[CoastalWx]

I liked Will's comment on it last night

Are you all in?

Eh, in this winter...I don't know if you ever can be. The signal has been there though.

[dendrite]

Huh, what are the sources for that information -

Not sure if you have a COMET account, but there is some good stuff on this page.

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, again ...I think that all the sites out there are just not updated... Haha - I went to f* NCEP its self and the docs are dated 2003

Don't tell us a memo can't be written because of funding! jaggovs

Anyway, I keep getting .5X.5 for the GFS, and slightly better .3X.25 for the GGEM, but if anyone has a more recent resource, by all means enlighten -

here...took me a while to put this on the new site...had it on my old site but couldn't find it...just added it now.

i'm pretty sure this is up-to-date (compiled using various sources):

http://www.capecodweather.net/computer-models/

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure if you have a COMET account, but there is some good stuff on this page.

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

Shttp won't let me open much at the office, but I can check shizzle out later -

[Typhoon Tip]

here...took me a while to put this on the new site...had it on my old site but couldn't find it...just added it now.

i'm pretty sure this is up-to-date (compiled using various sources):

http://www.capecodwe...omputer-models/

Interesting ... "....The GEFS is run at a T254 (50-55km) resolution for the first 8 days..."

not trying to be a dic head just trying to get to the bottom of this:

50-55km is roughly 1/2 of 1 degree of latitude or longitude; 1 degree is 60 nautical miles where 1 nautical mile = 1.852 km, implies 111.12km/degree of latitude or longitude.

So, if 50 to 55 km is the current resolution (per your source), that's still 50/111.12 = a .45lat/lon mesh, or 49lat/lon if using 55km.

Meanwhile, if you go to the Canadian Environmental sources, they list the GGEM as being .3 by .25.

This suggests no, the GGEM does have a finer mesh.

Why am incorrect - what am I missing then?

[CoastalWx]

Eh, in this winter...I don't know if you ever can be. The signal has been there though.

I should add the long wave pattern kind of sucks, so it doesn't seem all that great.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Interesting ... "....The GEFS is run at a T254 (50-55km) resolution for the first 8 days..."

not trying to be a dic head just trying to get to the bottom of this:

50-55km is roughly 1/2 of 1 degree of latitude or longitude; 1 degree is 60 nautical miles where 1 nautical mile = 1.852 km, implies 111.12km/degree of latitude or longitude.

So, if 50 to 55 km is the current resolution (per your source), that's still 50/111.12 = a .45lat/lon mesh, or 49lat/lon if using 55km.

Meanwhile, if you go to the Canadian Environmental sources, they list the GGEM as being .3 by .25.

This suggests no, the GGEM does have a finer mesh.

Why am incorrect - what am I missing then?

no problem.

that's the gefs not the g f s that you just quoted there

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is run on T574 according to this which is a 27km grid

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/#GFS

[dryslot]

18z GFS is colder and further south for the friday storm

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is run on T574 according to this which is a 27km grid

http://www.nco.ncep....oducts/gfs/#GFS

Yeah ...funny thing is, I remember reading about this last year ... I tell ya, that head of mine -

[ORH_wxman]

GFS front end thumps us even here on this run.

[dryslot]

If only it was right..

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS front end thumps us even here on this run.

Dude ... you gotta appreciate the significance of operational ECM -vs- the GFS at 84 flippin hours before ...whatever in the f* takes place.

Heh, I wonder if we will be experiencing 2 completely different storm events at the same quantom moment in time? ...that's weird.

[ORH_wxman]

I think rt 2 northward would be all snow on the GFs, lol. What an abortion of model runs we've seen.