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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:28 PM, ORH_wxman said:

LOL at NAM, it changes back over N ORH county and SW NH to a snow bomb at 33 hours and dumps another 4-6".

I wonder if we actually see that secondary develop further south and bomb quicker. That thing could get huge quickly.

This would put SNE in the game for front end and back end snows.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:30 PM, CT Rain said:

lol I love the NAM.

Within 18 hours I do actually put stock in it. So at least part 1 is somewhat believable.

Euro is bothering me...I thought it would come in better at 12z after it trended toward NCEP models at 00z. Its hard to think the other models are going to be so wrong inside of 18 hours though...even the RUC is showing a big thump getting in here about 12-15 hours from now.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:30 PM, CT Rain said:

lol I love the NAM.

Within 18 hours I do actually put stock in it. So at least part 1 is somewhat believable.

that's kind of how i feel. i suppose 00z could still pull the rug out from under this, but i expected that run to do it.

we'll know relatively soon just based on obs.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is bothering me...I thought it would come in better at 12z after it trended toward NCEP models at 00z. Its hard to think the other models are going to be so wrong inside of 18 hours though...even the RUC is showing a big thump getting in here about 12-15 hours from now.

That's what sucks. It's hard to think models on both sides can be wrong this far out, but I thought the GFS op was a decent compromise between the meager Euro and the obscene NAM. Something like that.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

NAM has very strong frontogenesis over SNE tomorrow morning. Combine that with the theta-e bomb at 850 riding up and hitting at brick wall over LI sound at 60kts...there is your solution.

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z. :axe:

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:35 PM, CT Rain said:

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z. :snowing::thumbsup:

fixed it for ya

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

The ukie looked kind of meh too. I don't know..part of me wonder how you can generate this much QPF on pure WAA and little PVA.

Well you sort of answered that question above. If you're able to generate the LLJ... the thump of warm advection and frontogenesis can certainly do it. At least for a couple hour period of time.

No question the NAM is likely too robust - but 18 hours out - with SREF support I think a solution juicier than Euro is a good bet.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:38 PM, CoastalWx said:

I know the storm back in January did just that, but that was over a longer period of time and a colder atmosphere. It just looks a little too amped up..but if that LLJ is anywhere near correct..I can see why the NAM has what it has.

I haven't bit on advisory snow yet...I'm sticking with 1-3" for now. But as we get closer, I'm becoming a bit more skeptical of the Euro.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:39 PM, CT Rain said:

Well you sort of answered that question above. If you're able to generate the LLJ... the thump of warm advection and frontogenesis can certainly do it. At least for a couple hour period of time.

No question the NAM is likely too robust - but 18 hours out - with SREF support I think a solution juicier than Euro is a good bet.

Yeah that's what I mean...I wonder if it is too strong with that. Just thinking out loud here. GFS has a 40-45kt jet and looks a little more realistic.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2012 at 8:35 PM, CT Rain said:

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z. :axe:

So if this were to happen..it starts snowing like 3::00- 4:00 am and just bangs down from like 5:00-8:00 ish?

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