Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:20 PM, messenger said:

Blows. Big coastal front, super warm SST's....coast front will be tea bagging Ray during the height of the storm.

The good news is the euro hasn't been prone to wrapping up bombs at days 5-10...I can't remember the last time it did such a thing.

i assume you are kidding?

[OSUmetstud]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:17 PM, HubbDave said:

Here is the e-wall version

I'm talking about the Friday-Saturday one in the 60 hours...not the fantasy one.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I don't know how to copy a part of the screen from Wunderground...it only goes to 180 anyways

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:22 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I'm talking about the Friday-Saturday one in the 60 hours...not the fantasy one.

Ahh... What is happening on your Wunderground? It works fine here at home?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:21 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

i assume you are kidding?

You have to factor in sun angle per Kev.

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:24 PM, messenger said:

You have to factor in sun angle per Kev.

it's day 7/8 so it's complete fantasy land anyway...but that evolution would be pretty darn near perfect. low goes south of the BM a bit, fresh HP north of NE, really cold low/mid levels...

would be a full on a blizzard.

1/100 odds, but fun to look at it.

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:29 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

it's day 7/8 so it's complete fantasy land anyway...but that evolution would be pretty darn near perfect. low goes south of the BM a bit, fresh HP north of NE, really cold low/mid levels...

would be a full on a blizzard.

1/100 odds, but fun to look at it.

Classic high position. Maybe it's good to see a day 8 jackpot instead of a day 5?

LOL...

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:29 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

it's day 7/8 so it's complete fantasy land anyway...but that evolution would be pretty darn near perfect. low goes south of the BM a bit, fresh HP north of NE, really cold low/mid levels...

would be a full on a blizzard.

1/100 odds, but fun to look at it.

made me sick to my stomach, somehow I knew we would get one of those runs. Scooters bucket over the head, nips to a battery analogy made me LMAO, so true

[dryslot]

18z nam colder and ticked SE again, MPM and MRG look like they see snow out of this

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:22 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I'm talking about the Friday-Saturday one in the 60 hours...not the fantasy one.

Buf is toast, great CAD in CNE though from first low.

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Classic high position. Maybe it's good to see a day 8 jackpot instead of a day 5?

LOL...

that's right...my bad...it's right where we want it with jackpot at day 8. lol.

did you see at hr 198 it even closes a -12C 850 pocket over E MA as it "makes its own cold" lol

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:32 PM, Dryslot said:

18z nam colder and ticked SE again, MPM and MRG look like they see snow out of this

the stronger 1 gets the farther south that CAD is coming, would not be surprised if it tickles Kevs fanny

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:32 PM, Dryslot said:

18z nam colder and ticked SE again, MPM and MRG look like they see snow out of this

Close here, depending on how crappy the airmass is...

And it will be very crappy. Tubes is looking better

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:34 PM, HubbDave said:

Close here, depending on how crappy the airmass is...

And it will be very crappy.  Tubes is looking better

I would not say crappy bro

[weatherMA]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:32 PM, Dryslot said:

18z nam colder and ticked SE again, MPM and MRG look like they see snow out of this

It starts at 6z and its over by 18z. Would be a 3am to noon type event... definitely colder this run...verbatim I think ORH might get a quick 1-2" on the front end. Looks like all snow north of CON...similar to the euro. 6" for you?

[Tropopause_Fold]

18z NAM really hits the north country hard - given how crappy the winter has been...at face value that run looks like it would be one of the better events of the entire season for some folks up there?

unfortunately, we aren't inside of 18 hours, so the NAM can't be relied upon yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:31 PM, Ginx said:

made me sick to my stomach, somehow I knew we would get one of those runs. Scooters bucket over the head, nips to a battery analogy made me LMAO, so true

I guess the only thing better than a bomb at D10 in the Euro, is one at D7.5; Instead of a 7% chance of verifying, it's about 15

Just 3.5 days until the Euor wheel house - lol

[OSUmetstud]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:32 PM, Ginx said:

Buf is toast, great CAD in CNE though from first low.

hmm...it looks like a good track...okay

NAM is awfully close.

[dryslot]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:37 PM, weatherMA said:

It starts at 6z and its over by 18z. Would be a 3am to noon type event... definitely colder this run...verbatim I think ORH might get a quick 1-2" on the front end. Looks like all snow north of CON...similar to the euro. 6" for you?

Yeah, Looks like low end warning here 6-7" depending on ratio, Probably 8-10:1 is a safe bet

[weatherMA]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:39 PM, OSUmetstud said:

hmm...it looks like a good track...okay

NAM is awfully close.

Yeah just N of BUF is all snow...I would think you would get something.

BOX afternoon update should be interesting. SNH is actually close to advisory criteria on some of these runs.

[weathafella]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:29 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

it's day 7/8 so it's complete fantasy land anyway...but that evolution would be pretty darn near perfect. low goes south of the BM a bit, fresh HP north of NE, really cold low/mid levels...

would be a full on a blizzard.

1/100 odds, but fun to look at it.

lalalal lock it. Futility buster and thensome. Winter redeemer. Hackysackyfreezer.

[dryslot]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:37 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

18z NAM really hits the north country hard - given how crappy the winter has been...at face value that run looks like it would be one of the better events of the entire season for some folks up there?

unfortunately, we aren't inside of 12 hours, so the NAM can't be relied upon yet.

fyp

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:36 PM, Ginx said:

I would not say crappy bro

Not entirely crappy, but still a bit warm for my liking. Still, better than before.

Tick tick tick

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:42 PM, weathafella said:

lalalal lock it. Futility buster and thensome. Winter redeemer. Hackysackyfreezer.

Boring is a boring does

[weathafella]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:44 PM, HubbDave said:

Boring is a boring does

as.

[dendrite]

lol...the NAM drops almost 1" of liquid up here on Friday. There is a pesky warm 750mb layer though around 45hr that some will have to watch out for. It gets me to near 0C there, but keeps me all snow while CON/AFN turn over to pingers.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hm... decent snow storm for ALB ... Good interior front ender for interior SNE...

[mahk_webstah]

my favorite words in the zones just out...."heavy snow accumulation" for me Jeff, Brain and Eric is moderate I think. Should be an interesting drive to Montreal on Friday, up rt 89.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/22/2012 at 8:37 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

18z NAM really hits the north country hard - given how crappy the winter has been...at face value that run looks like it would be one of the better events of the entire season for some folks up there?

unfortunately, we aren't inside of 18 hours ago, so the NAM can't be relied upon yet.

Corrected:

[weatherMA]

I feel like the 18z gfs will come in with a weenie solution with all snow N of rt 2 to suck SNE in and the 00z gfs will trend warm again.