eyewall Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I just wanted to say briefly what I have learned from the 2/19/2012 snow event. Yes it can snow even in the worst of winters I need to better separate emotion from meteorology and stick with what the science is telling me Deformation bands in NC can always deliver in the end Weather4NC was right about me getting another video of great snow rates I love miller A storms! That is all, Jeremy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I just wanted to say briefly what I have learned from the 2/19/2012 snow event. Yes it can snow even in the worst of winters I need to better separate emotion from meteorology and stick with what the science is telling me Deformation bands in NC can always deliver in the end Weather4NC was right about me getting another video of great snow rates I love miller A storms! That is all, Jeremy Good point on separating the emotion and wishcasting from the meteorology and science. Our junior members that post 5+ times an hour in the threads in 3 to 5 days leading up to the event will evenutally learn that as they grow in their understanding of their hobby. It's great that our forum provides the opportunity for each of us to share in our enjoyment of meteorology and each event brings a learning experience for all. All along I felt like this one trend a bit north and would produce the best accumulations north of us in KY/WV/VA and snow around 3 inches in the NW Mountains and possibly along the NC-VA Border counties down 2 counties from the Virginia line and along the I-40 corridor. Myself, so eager to get a solid day in of back country cross country skiing, I got swayed too much in the heard mentality following the models where my confidence had increased the NW Mountains could get 6 to 10. Instead, we ended up with 2 - 3 which is less than what we got in the upslope last weekend and the skis did not make it out of the rack. (last thing you want to do is carve up the bottoms of a good pair of cross country skis when there is not enough snow accumulation) Sure enough, yesterday morning, the main largest batch of precipitation steadily worked it's way up west of the NC Apps delivering good accumulations in KY, WV and western VA. Most everything we got in Avery came in early afternoon from some of the secondary development in NW SC that worked the way northward. At that time is was obvious why the real mountain folk never had a feeling this one was going to produce. Still, considering this winter, for the individuals along and NW of the I-40 corridor, this turned to be a winter event and most importantly our only gulf based winter event so far this winter. Hopefully we can squeeze another one out of the pattern in a bit over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. And quickly at that! In the end they have more of impact on how long the snow cover lasts after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I learned that we really need a Red and Yellow taggers only thread. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Good point on separating the emotion and wishcasting from the meteorology and science. Our junior members that post 5+ times an hour in the threads in 3 to 5 days leading up to the event will evenutally learn that as they grow in their understanding of their hobby. It's great that our forum provides the opportunity for each of us to share in our enjoyment of meteorology and each event brings a learning experience for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 My curiousoty was piqued by the ground temp disco/argument. I used a laser temp gun to take ground temps during the snow fall. The concrete cooled very fast followed by the asphalt. The ground was much slower. Don't know how scientific it was but it was interesting. Thanks to all of you that provide your insights. Learning alot from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 A team worker in Charlotte sent me this that was apparently related to posts on the Charlotte Observer this morning over the event that gave everyone a good retrospective laugh: "For the past two days Chicken Lyttle has been hyping a "24 hour soaker", with 1 - 2 inches of rain, and some snow late Sunday night. Reality: A few hours of light rain totaling 1/4 -1/2 inch. No measurable snow. No ice. No problems. What a shocker!" "As usual all the hype artists are dead wrong. WCNC's - Panicovich was going off the rails about 2 inches of rain - all night Saturday, and all day Sunday - resulting in icy roads Monday morning. WBTV's - Thomas was warning about the "wall of water" coming our way starting Saturday evening. The official forecast from the National Weather Service indicated about 1/4 inch of rain for Sunday. Chicken Little - the sky is always falling in Charlotte Read more here: http://www.charlotte...l#storylink=cpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. in two weeks, you'll have to deal with the angle of the sun hysteria ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 A team worker in Charlotte sent me this that was apparently related to posts on the Charlotte Observer this morning over the event that gave everyone a good retrospective laugh: "For the past two days Chicken Lyttle has been hyping a "24 hour soaker", with 1 - 2 inches of rain, and some snow late Sunday night. Reality: A few hours of light rain totaling 1/4 -1/2 inch. No measurable snow. No ice. No problems. What a shocker!" "As usual all the hype artists are dead wrong. WCNC's - Panicovich was going off the rails about 2 inches of rain - all night Saturday, and all day Sunday - resulting in icy roads Monday morning. WBTV's - Thomas was warning about the "wall of water" coming our way starting Saturday evening. The official forecast from the National Weather Service indicated about 1/4 inch of rain for Sunday. Chicken Little - the sky is always falling in Charlotte Read more here: http://www.charlotte...l#storylink=cpy My recollection was that the 1-2" rain corridor was mostly in the midlands area from say Augusta, GA to Wilmington, NC, and mainly due to storm #1 Saturday night. Many areas east of that line got near 2", so it was there, just not in Charlotte. I don't believe anyone thought storm #2 would bring much more than 1/2" liquid to Charlotte. All-in-all, I thought Charlotte would get 0.75-1" rain with snow flakes in the air. Any hyping by the local TV mets was just that, hyping. Edit: NWS at CHS did a very good job with his storm IMHO. Kudos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. Clarification...on grassy and elevated surfaces yes, on roads it's more difficult. Look at Eyewall's video in Chapel Hill....awesome rates but roads looked fine and cars were driving on wet streets (probably some slush). I'm talking about when the temp is 32 and above. To get EVERTHING covered in white, I still think you've got to have temps 31 and below or high rates for a real long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. Can't forget the sun angle affecting the rates...lol. I can't help but laugh at most of those arguments, the dynamics of a storm are not to be messed with. Heck, the roads were bad even after an hour of IP in Raleigh. My brother fishtailed twice when he was out buying groceries and the roads were already slush from IP. Clarification...on grassy and elevated surfaces yes, on roads it's more difficult. Look at Eyewall's video in Chapel Hill....awesome rates but roads looked fine and cars were driving on wet streets (probably some slush). I'm talking about when the temp is 32 and above. To get EVERTHING covered in white, I still think you've got to have temps 31 and below or high rates for a real long time. Not so fast....my street in NW Raleigh was completely white about 30-40 minutes after the onset of snow. Rates can cover anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Can't forget the sun angle affecting the rates...lol. I can't help but laugh at most of those arguments, the dynamics of a storm are not to be messed with. Heck, the roads were bad even after an hour of IP in Raleigh. My brother fishtailed twice when he was out buying groceries and the roads were already slush from IP. Not so fast....my street in NW Raleigh was completely white about 30-40 minutes after the onset of snow. Rates can cover anything. To me the sun angle argument was always based on after the snow fell and how fast it melts once skies clear. The bolded part is why every on air met has to take any winter weather very seriously and alert people to the chance of it. I didn't hear one met in CLT "hyping" the storm. Like almost every red tagger on this board it all came apart in the bottom of the ninth....can't blame them for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Can't forget the sun angle affecting the rates...lol. I can't help but laugh at most of those arguments, the dynamics of a storm are not to be messed with. Heck, the roads were bad even after an hour of IP in Raleigh. My brother fishtailed twice when he was out buying groceries and the roads were already slush from IP. Not so fast....my street in NW Raleigh was completely white about 30-40 minutes after the onset of snow. Rates can cover anything. What was the temp? Ok....from everyone's experiences mentioned I'll concead that it's possible to get more accumulation than slush on the roads >32 degrees. I'm just saying in my 30 some years in Charlotte, that's all I've ever seen at those temps; slush. The other thing I've learned.... that it seems consistent in winterstorms that radar and QPF doesn't live up to model guidance many times, and systems seems to end earlier than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What was the temp? Ok....from everyone's experiences mentioned I'll concead that it's possible to get more accumulation than slush on the roads >32 degrees. I'm just saying in my 30 some years in Charlotte, that's all I've ever seen at those temps; slush. The other thing I've learned.... that it seems consistent in winterstorms that radar and QPF doesn't live up to model guidance many times, and systems seems to end earlier than models show. That could have a lot to do with traffic in the area. IIRC Feb. 2010 started as snow @32 and streets started going white pretty fast. I also think March 2009 had temps hovering around 31 - 32 at the start and roads were covered quick. The thing about QPF and radar is there will always be winners and losers in Southeast winter snow storms due to just typical banding. Same thing happens with rain we just tend to not notice it much because you have to be looking at a rain gauge and reading reports of others in your area. Seems like Charlotte the last few years is just always on the losing side of that. Just MHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Learned several positive things from this storm: - Soil temps are pointless with storms like this, unless maybe it's August or something...(but even then hail stones can accumulate lol) - Birds in the backyard are like models, only the EURO/GFS is better - NWS radars do poorly showing the back end of precip, esp. with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Learned several positive things from this storm: - NWS radars do poorly showing the back end of precip, esp. with this storm Please explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Please explain? A lot of times they won't pick up moisture still around. You need a better radar like TDWR. Last night it was obvious using the NWS composite(?) radar it showed nothing. However using the TDWR you could see bands still heading east affecting parts of I-40. Here is a link to one such radar: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Good post Jeremy! I just wanted to say briefly what I have learned from the 2/19/2012 snow event. Yes it can snow even in the worst of winters I need to better separate emotion from meteorology and stick with what the science is telling me Deformation bands in NC can always deliver in the end Weather4NC was right about me getting another video of great snow rates I love miller A storms! That is all, Jeremy Nope.. It will always be brought up.. Nope.. It will always be brought up.. Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Hopefully, we can all finally agree that antecedent warm ground and road conditions can be easily overcome by snowfall rates. I hope there is less argument about this next time. It can stick in July if it's cold enough...and I hope I'm around to see it, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Please explain? I had around 3 hours of extra steady snow as the precip went east. Others on here were also reporting the same thing from Hickory north-east to Yadkinville. Not sure if the radar was picking up what was over the mountains spilling eastward or what. Charlotte radar was showing precip Blacksburg and Greenville were not once the invisible precip reached Iredell County. Ended up getting 2-3.5inch snow totals across these counties even when the best precip went eastward that gave the Piedmont accumulating snow too. EDIT - And Charlotte's radar did not do me much good in the north-central part of Wilkes County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I had around 3 hours of extra steady snow as the precip went east. Others on here were also reporting the same thing from Hickory north-east to Yadkinville. Not sure if the radar was picking up what was over the mountains spilling eastward or what. Charlotte radar was showing precip Blacksburg and Greenville were not once the invisible precip reached Iredell County. Ended up getting 2-3.5inch snow totals across these counties even when the best precip went eastward that gave the Piedmont accumulating snow too. EDIT - And Charlotte's radar did not do me much good in the north-central part of Wilkes County. thank you. Maybe the mountains creating a precip shadow of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What I learned from the 2/19 event : It can't snow even in the worst of winters. This is shaping up to be only the 3rd winter in my lifetime without at least a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 To me the sun angle argument was always based on after the snow fell and how fast it melts once skies clear. The bolded part is why every on air met has to take any winter weather very seriously and alert people to the chance of it. I didn't hear one met in CLT "hyping" the storm. Like almost every red tagger on this board it all came apart in the bottom of the ninth....can't blame them for that. Yeah that was the main sun angle argument but I was going back and forth with someone saying it will affect rates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 As far as sun angle goes, I'm pretty sure that it can play a significant role in limiting snowfall accumulation. In March 2009, I had 3 hours of thundersnow, the heaviest snow i've ever seen, and only 1/2" accumulated. I'm guessing about 6" actually fell from the sky. It happened in the middle of the day, which i'm sure had something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Euro is still king of the model world with me day 3-5. GFS with it's App/boderline OV tracks are a joke looking back. And Nam was ok catching on to some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I learned that we really need a Red and Yellow taggers only thread. ; ) You might jest, but I'd actually appreciate something like that. Just because I have access to models and radar doesn't make me an expert. We need an "unsubstantiated claim" filter on here during storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 As far as sun angle goes, I'm pretty sure that it can play a significant role in limiting snowfall accumulation. In March 2009, I had 3 hours of thundersnow, the heaviest snow i've ever seen, and only 1/2" accumulated. I'm guessing about 6" actually fell from the sky. It happened in the middle of the day, which i'm sure had something to do with it. That had to do with boundary layer temps. It was most likely 34 to 35 degree's on the day you are referring to. I guess you can make the arguement that sun angle increases the boundary layer temperatures. I think the sun angle arguement is more along the lines of at a given temperature snow will melt faster in March. Let's say it's 30 degree's at the surface and you have heavy snow. Will the accumulation of that snow be affected because it is mid-March or mid-January?? My thoughts are that it has a very minimal affect on accumulation. It has a larger affect on the rate at which snow melts after it has accumulated. For instance, if it's only 30 degree's for the high on the following day, the snow depth would decrease at a faster rate in march than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Euro is still king of the model world with me day 3-5. GFS with it's App/boderline OV tracks are a joke looking back. And Nam was ok catching on to some things. It was actually the Canadian model that was most consistent with this storm. The Euro actually waffled back and forth between the GFS and Canadian solution for a couple of days before it finally did hone in on the threat. By far and away, the Canadian was the first to get the separation between the main northern and southern streams correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I under-estimated the back piece of upper-level energy for North Carolina east of the Apps. My last forecast post was back on Friday before going to ski. It was mountain-focused, fading the Piedmont. Left the door open, but with lots of doubt. Very happy it worked out for y'all receiving snow. Tennessee went as I figured: no snow in the valley of death; accumulation Plateau, Smokies and extreme northeast Tenn. The system was tilted from the surface low at the coast, to the mid-level low over NC, back to the 500mb wave and cyclonic jet streak back over the Tennessee Valley. I'm not talking positive/negative tilt, but vertical tilt. The "Saturday" night rain-maker lead short-wave (s/w) had pushed offshore by Sunday morning while the back s/w was just coming across Tenn. Many times we see that second s/w fizzle as it approaches the "main" system. This time it would appear that the "main" upper-level system was the back one, even as the surface low moved along. When rain changed to snow in the Piedmont that precip was driven by PVA from the back s/w; lead s/w was about off-shore. Meanwhile the 700 and 850 lows tracked out of GA/SC into southern NC, promoting the snow in northern NC. North winds sfc to 700 cooled the column as the lift/PVA came in from Tenn. The system was vertically tilted, helping precipitation hang back long enough for lower levels cool off and change it to snow. Normally I'd still forecast the second s/w to weaken; and, lead s/w rain to end before the cold air arrives. However, this case was different because of how the system lined up well vertically. Perhaps the copious amount of moisture available, with the tropical tap, also promoted the efficiency of the back s/w. The models honed in on the vertically tilted structure and healthy QPF with the second/back wave by 24-36 hours out. While model performance could have been better, operational forecasters can learn from this system. Though no two are alike, this one is yet another addition to the pattern recognition tool belt. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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