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Friday Night Into Saturday High Wind OBS And Discussion


bluewave

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Bullish high wind signal off the latest SREF's. Usually when they show 40kt at the surface like that nearby

to our area, we see gusts of 50-60 mph or a little higher. Looks like greatest potential is for NYC

Metro eastward.

This is absolutely the strongest wind signal of the 2011-2012 "winter" so far, easily edging out the smaller 12/7-8 and 1/13 events. Also, I'm impressed by the duration we could see; the front comes through in the 10pm range tonight, and the gradient stays tight through sunset tomorrow.

This should be an event with two peaks: the first one along and shortly after the front itself, and the second during the middle of the day tomorrow with the sharp gradient and great mixing potential. As you said, the coast (as usual) will see the strongest winds. I have a weather station at a beach house on the Jersey Shore and can't wait to see how this storm does down there.

Already quite gusty this morning so it's possible we see even stronger winds later today and tonight, Wind advisory for parts of central nj, HWW further east.

The E-NE winds in the area now aren't really related to what will happen later, as it'll probably go calm/nearly calm later today as the warm front hangs up to our south. All that matters here is what happens after the cold frontal passage tonight.

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This is absolutely the strongest wind signal of the 2011-2012 "winter" so far, easily edging out the smaller 12/7-8 and 1/13 events. Also, I'm impressed by the duration we could see; the front comes through in the 10pm range tonight, and the gradient stays tight through sunset tomorrow.

This should be an event with two peaks: the first one along and shortly after the front itself, and the second during the middle of the day tomorrow with the sharp gradient and great mixing potential. As you said, the coast (as usual) will see the strongest winds. I have a weather station at a beach house on the Jersey Shore and can't wait to see how this storm does down there.

The E-NE winds in the area now aren't really related to what will happen later, as it'll probably go calm/nearly calm later today as the warm front hangs up to our south. All that matters here is what happens after the cold frontal passage tonight.

Winds usually tend to under perform around here but the latest Nam shows some squalls with the front later today so that could be interesting.

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Yeah to me this is far more exciting than some flakes in the air or a slushy inch of snow that melts in 3 hours.

This is absolutely the strongest wind signal of the 2011-2012 "winter" so far, easily edging out the smaller 12/7-8 and 1/13 events. Also, I'm impressed by the duration we could see; the front comes through in the 10pm range tonight, and the gradient stays tight through sunset tomorrow.

This should be an event with two peaks: the first one along and shortly after the front itself, and the second during the middle of the day tomorrow with the sharp gradient and great mixing potential. As you said, the coast (as usual) will see the strongest winds. I have a weather station at a beach house on the Jersey Shore and can't wait to see how this storm does down there.

The E-NE winds in the area now aren't really related to what will happen later, as it'll probably go calm/nearly calm later today as the warm front hangs up to our south. All that matters here is what happens after the cold frontal passage tonight.

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Winds usually tend to under perform around here but the latest Nam shows some squalls with the front later today so that could be interesting.

I totally disagree - usually the short-term forecasts are very close. There are also events like 3/13/10 and 12/27/10 (the back end of the blizzard) that seriously overperform. There are far less underperforming (relative to forecast, since that's the only way we can define "underperforming") wind events than there are underpeforming snow events, in my opinion, since model qpf and temp forecasts can be rather unreliable for snow events.

I actually think the true squall line will stay well to our south, maybe as far north as Philly at best - but the wind potential is synoptic-scale here, anyway.

Yeah to me this is far more exciting than some flakes in the air or a slushy inch of snow that melts in 3 hours.

Agreed completely, though I take that way farther! I like snow and all, but wind is my thing.

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The ground is wet but it's hardly saturated. Irene was coming after we had over a foot of rain in the previous 3 weeks, plus what fell before the high winds kicked in. So far this month most locations have barely gotten over half an inch and we also have no foliage on the trees

Awesome wind event coming our way, could bring down many trees though the ground is pretty wet and 60mph gust would make this bigger then Irene for most of us

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It also looks like the NAM may be trying to show gravity wave potential with any convection later on.

Notice that bend in the isobars near the coast well west of the bombing low to our east. The SREF's are

also indicating some thunder potential around the same time.

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The ground is wet but it's hardly saturated. Irene was coming after we had over a foot of rain in the previous 3 weeks, plus what fell before the high winds kicked in. So far this month most locations have barely gotten over half an inch and we also have no foliage on the trees

Yeah that's true, I was speaking on my neighborhood ('marine park Brooklyn) we usually lose trees with winds 50+ I lose power a lot to here even with 40mph. But needless to say I'm sure there are going to be many power outages and trees/limbs down with 60mph winds

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It also looks like the NAM may be trying to show gravity wave potential with any convection later on.

Notice that bend in the isobars near the coast well west of the bombing low to our east. The SREF's are

also indicating some thunder potential around the same time.

I'm sorry Ive heard gravity wave before but what exactly is it, thanks

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Irene and the october snowstorm are the only 2 times I've ever lost power for more than 30 minutes. But usually with no foliage it would take winds of at least 50 mph for widespread power outages.

Yeah that's true, I was speaking on my neighborhood ('marine park Brooklyn) we usually lose trees with winds 50+ I lose power a lot to here even with 40mph. But needless to say I'm sure there are going to be many power outages and trees/limbs down with 60mph winds

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Irene and the october snowstorm are the only 2 times I've ever lost power for more than 30 minutes. But usually with no foliage it would take winds of at least 50 mph for widespread power outages.

True I think I've lost power every wind advisory this winter lol, there's so many trees in this neighborhood that the limbs hit transformers when they fall etc but I know queens and staten island also lose power and trees pretty easy

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Yeah usually we need downed trees to have power problems. Our towns trim the trees, sometimes leaving gaping holes in the middle of them to avoid power lines. It's ugly but effective I guess.

True I think I've lost power every wind advisory this winter lol, there's so many trees in this neighborhood that the limbs hit transformers when they fall etc but I know queens and staten island also lose power and trees pretty easy

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Yeah usually we need downed trees to have power problems. Our towns trim the trees, sometimes leaving gaping holes in the middle of them to avoid power lines. It's ugly but effective I guess.

They were actually doing that here the other day but it never works cause they only cut what's touching or near the wire so anything else can still fall and bring it down. It's NYC what more should I expect ha

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