tornadojay Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Only issue I see in places like KMSV is that it doesn't look like it's completely saturated in the snow growth region so it's possible that even if temps are marginally cold enough, it might be a sleet or freezing rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 South Coast of Connecticut looks like it has good chance to receive one to three inches of snow overnight; especially Bridgeport and points east; one caveat is a possible warm push of air between 750 mb and 800 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Rgem came a little south. Has the heaviest precip over SWCT and northern NJ. Tmagan needed for the accumulated snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 South Coast of Connecticut looks like it has good chance to receive one to three inches of snow overnight; especially Bridgeport and points east; one caveat is a possible warm push of air between 750 mb and 800 mb. If that ends up as sleet, which at least some of it should with that warm layer, accumulations would be lower than 1-3 inches, and I'm not so sure if some of the model snow maps take sleet into consideration (although others here probably know about this more than I do). Still, there's a clear trend for this to bring frozen precipitation, apparently accumulating, as far south as NW NJ, southern CT, and Rockland/Westchester counties, which is quite a big change from what the models had 12 hours ago for this. Interesting why the storm changed so much on the models despite being only 1 day away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If that ends up as sleet, which at least some of it should with that warm layer, accumulations would be lower than 1-3 inches, and I'm not so sure if some of the model snow maps take sleet into consideration (although others here probably know about this more than I do). I didn't look at any "snow map" to reach my determination... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I didn't look at any "snow map" to reach my determination... I was just saying in general that some snow maps posted out there that show 1-3" for southern CT may not be taking into consideration the sleet. Your post didn't mention anything about a snow map and I didn't try to say it did, although my point probably didn't come out clear enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I was just saying in general that some snow maps posted out there that show 1-3" for southern CT may not be taking into consideration the sleet. Your post didn't mention anything about a snow map and I didn't try to say it did, although my point probably didn't come out clear enough. Rgem separates snow and ice/sleet. Curious to see what it shows since it has the best band right over swct and northern NJ this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Rgem separates snow and ice/sleet. Curious to see what it shows since it has the best band right over swct and northern NJ this run. That sounds even further south than the 0z NAM... what a crazy trend, in a matter of 24 hours we've gone from possible 55-60 degrees in NYC to accumulating snow in northern NJ, possibly even getting close to NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The 0z RGEM slams the northern half of the area with a brief yet heavy band of snow... NW NJ to SE NY and SW CT are likely the jackpot according to this map. That's much colder and even a little wetter than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The 00z NAM has a line of heavy rain/thunderstorms moving through the area in association with the cold front at 23z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The NAM is also a borderline warning criteria snow over the hills of New Jersey and SE NY...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The NAM is also a borderline warning criteria snow over the hills of New Jersey and SE NY...yikes. The rgem is even colder and wetter for northern NJ and into SWCT then the NAM. Even has mixed precip for northern parts of NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It's not that unusual, it's not anything we haven't seen before and we usually end up with gusts in the 30-35 mph range with local 40 mph gusts. I would say 50 - 55 at this point high end advisory. In this mundane winter ill take it. Living on the ocean wind events are always exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1036 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241145- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.120224T0500Z-120224T1400Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 1036 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO SUSSEX COUNTY OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND COULD PRODUCE ABOUT AN INCH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. VALLEYS SHOULD BE HOVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THERE. * IMPACTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN ELEVATED AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just a little radar OBS... the simulated radars on the NAM and CMC did not handle the precipitation near Michigan well, showing it too far south compared to the latest radar. Meanwhile, the precipitation for this storm continues to steadily advance ENE. While the storm is south of what the models had early yesterday morning, I'm wondering if the 0z NAM and CMC perhaps took it a little too far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 00Z RGEM total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I won't be surprise because in this kind of situation and setup the NAM always has it cold southern bias. I doubt any of NYC and most of LI will see any snow or frozen precipitation except the Northern twin Folks and North shore may see some snow or sleet mixed with the rain. At best for NW NJ especially and Orange County will probably see some light accumulations on colder surface before a change to wintry mix and then rain. NYC will stay on the cool sector tomorrow where it will not get out of the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 We might see some sleet in NYC, this morning. There is a sub-freezing layer, below the melting layer aloft on the 0z NAM soundings between 9z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It is possible to get some sleet or wet snow for a brief period in NYC but North shore and Eastern LI have better change to see some snow where the aloft is colder. I do think the NAM is taking it too far where RGEM seems a bit more realistic about it. Accumulation should stay north of Tappen Zee bridge, I-80, Southern CT and possibly as far south as the North Folk of LI could even see coating to half inch before changing to sleet and rain. It will be a raw day for NYC where the warm front will get hung in Central NJ near Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Getting sleet now in Brooklyn =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Getting sleet now in Brooklyn =) Just heard it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Upton saying Gish 46-57 so wind advisory likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Mix here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snow here in New Paltz, even though I'm not that close to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 HIgh Wind Watch for NYC and Long Island, for tonight and tomorrow: NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-241715- /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.120225T0300Z-120225T2300Z/ NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 413 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES...POWER POLES AND LINES...AND MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MALOIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 So who called the snow last night? I had sleet even here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I won't be surprise because in this kind of situation and setup the NAM always has it cold southern bias. I doubt any of NYC and most of LI will see any snow or frozen precipitation except the Northern twin Folks and North shore may see some snow or sleet mixed with the rain. At best for NW NJ especially and Orange County will probably see some light accumulations on colder surface before a change to wintry mix and then rain. NYC will stay on the cool sector tomorrow where it will not get out of the 40's. Nice 4 inch report in northern fairfeild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Was awoken by heavy sleet around 3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 2" for BDR 3.7" for Danbury We have a bunch of posters from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like a 2"-4" snowfall fell for our NWNJ and our Hudson Valley posters. And the same for our CT posters. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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