Weathergun Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The 12z UKMET shows less phasing than the 0z run. 993mb low over Western PA at 72hrs and Then 981mb over the Northern Maine coast at 96hrs. Less phasing, decreases the heavy rain and high wind potential for our area, out this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The 12z UKMET shows less phasing than the 0z run. 993mb low over Western PA at 72hrs and Then 981mb over the Northern Maine coast at 96hrs. Less phasing, decreases the heavy rain and high wind potential for our area, out this system: The ECM is pretty much left alone now with the big storm solution... I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up weaker with its 12z run. There's still time to narrow down the smaller details but overall this doesn't look like a big phase solution that the models showed 1-2 days ago, probably resulting in a mild but not very warm scenario with light-moderate rain and maybe some moderate wind gusts at most. Hopefully the pattern becomes more active going into March so that there will finally be something interesting to track, February hasn't been very interesting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The ECM is pretty much left alone now with the big storm solution... I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up weaker with its 12z run. There's still time to narrow down the smaller details but overall this doesn't look like a big phase solution that the models showed 1-2 days ago, probably resulting in a mild but not very warm scenario with light-moderate rain and maybe some moderate wind gusts at most. Hopefully the pattern becomes more active going into March so that there will finally be something interesting to track, February hasn't been very interesting so far. 12Z still has a wound up low it appears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12Z still has a wound up low it appears: I don't have access to the hourly time frames, but on E-wall it looks close to the 0z run. As bluewave mentioned, it's probably overphasing the northern and southern streams, while the rest of the models are slower with the southern shortwave and focus on the northern stream; the 12z GFS however handled it even more differently, as the southern shortwave is so slow that it doesn't even interact with the trough... it seems that as we approach the short range this forecast keeps getting even more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 If the primary does track to our W & no secondary forms, we got some nice winds to contend with, assuming the phased up solution is correct. Check out the 850mb winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 If the primary does track to our W & no secondary forms, we got some nice winds to contend with, assuming the phased up solution is correct. Check out the 850mb winds: What would it translate to for surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The 12z runs today, all have the northern stream energy running at different speeds. The GFS is fastest. The Euro is slowest. The GGEM and UKMET are somewhere in between. But still fast enough to miss a perfect phase with southern stream energy. The Euro was alone and correct speed of the northern stream last week. So maybe it will right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The GEFS super ensemble are indicating greater than 80% probability of above normal temperatures through the 8-14 day period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The GEFS super ensemble are indicating greater than 80% probability of above normal temperatures through the 8-14 day period as well. Awesome! Lets hit 60s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The NAM now has 60 F temperatures on Thursday afternoon across Central NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 If Friday's warmth doesn't verify (GFS has low 60s, while ECM is much colder), today would end up as the warmest day, exceeding the forecast... the models showed mid 50s for today, but as with other cases this winter, are trending warmer for today's highs, while temperatures are already in the mid 50s and still rising. EDIT: There's still a gusty wind potential for Friday evening with the cold front. The 12z NAM shows widespread 20-25 knot winds with higher gusts expected, and Upton has a HWO for gusts possibly up to 50-60 mph: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Actually the temps stalled out at noon in several locations. EWR was back down a degree If Friday's warmth doesn't verify (GFS has low 60s, while ECM is much colder), today would end up as the warmest day, exceeding the forecast... the models showed mid 50s for today, but as with other cases this winter, are trending warmer for today's highs, while temperatures are already in the mid 50s and still rising. EDIT: There's still a gusty wind potential for Friday evening with the cold front. The 12z NAM shows widespread 20-25 knot winds with higher gusts expected, and Upton has a HWO for gusts possibly up to 50-60 mph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 If Friday's warmth doesn't verify (GFS has low 60s, while ECM is much colder), today would end up as the warmest day, exceeding the forecast... the models showed mid 50s for today, but as with other cases this winter, are trending warmer for today's highs, while temperatures are already in the mid 50s and still rising. EDIT: There's still a gusty wind potential for Friday evening with the cold front. The 12z NAM shows widespread 20-25 knot winds with higher gusts expected, and Upton has a HWO for gusts possibly up to 50-60 mph: 50-60 now were talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Actually the temps stalled out at noon in several locations. EWR was back down a degree They've gone back up a little since, but although they're not quickly rising, they are still apparently on track to end up a little warmer than initially expected. Upton adjusted today's forecast to a slightly warmer one, now showing my area at 59 degrees (previous forecast was 57) with Teterboro's latest observation showing 57 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 My favorite part of spring is watching the warm fronts get hung up near Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 My favorite part of spring is watching the warm fronts get hung up near Trenton That's a big gradient, mid 60s in SNJ and mid 30s in NW NJ. The NAM actually keeps temperatures near freezing for most of the storm in Orange county. It would've been more interesting here if that gradient had been just a little more north though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Let's get backdoor season started early!! Why can't these ever work out in winter to keep us cold enough for snow while other places torch? They only show up in time to ruin spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Let's get backdoor season started early!! Why can't these ever work out in winter to keep us cold enough for snow while other places torch? They only show up in time to ruin spring. The 18z NAM blew the warm front through...and generally, just glancing at where the surface low is...and given the lack of any snow pack or really cold airmass in place..and a decent LLJ...I think this one has a decent chance of coming through. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Despite the 0z GFS trending south with the warmth, it still barely includes NYC and is even warmer, with nearly 65 degrees just SW of NYC. It's going to be a close one, a small difference with the location of the storm and the warm front would mean either 60-65 degrees or 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (big typo, should say FRIDAY) another look at the temperature gradient on the WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Hows the wind situation looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 We are on our way to highs above 60 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 We are on our way to highs above 60 today. Sea breeze shouldn't be a factor either as winds will have a westerly component to them all day. Niceeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like today is the warmest of the week...nam still keeping warm front south of us tomorrow....rather have a beautiful 60 degree day....then a tainted one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like today is the warmest of the week...nam still keeping warm front south of us tomorrow....rather have a beautiful 60 degree day....then a tainted one Gotta wonder what's holding it up. Funny we were just chatting about this yesterday. Usually when I see one of these solutions there are several things which you want to check out immediately that can typically hold up warm fronts to the south of the area. The LLJ...snow cover, cold air source to the north, secondary surface lows, etc. In this case I think the redeveloping surface low is to blame...the low level jet swings off to the east a bit by 15z Friday and the new surface low develops...so despite the initial WAA as the primary goes really far to our north and west...the NAM says that the surface front will stall as the low level jet swings east. Many times the last few years we saw warm fronts have trouble getting through here even in mid spring as a result of things like this...and this time it looks like we may have a similar situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone in Southern NJ hit 70 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Gotta wonder what's holding it up. Funny we were just chatting about this yesterday. Usually when I see one of these solutions there are several things which you want to check out immediately that can typically hold up warm fronts to the south of the area. The LLJ...snow cover, cold air source to the north, secondary surface lows, etc. In this case I think the redeveloping surface low is to blame...the low level jet swings off to the east a bit by 15z Friday and the new surface low develops...so despite the initial WAA as the primary goes really far to our north and west...the NAM says that the surface front will stall as the low level jet swings east. Many times the last few years we saw warm fronts have trouble getting through here even in mid spring as a result of things like this...and this time it looks like we may have a similar situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone in Southern NJ hit 70 F. Lol....I know you love those kind of days....today is absolutely amazing.....57 here now....def going to 60....... Intense temperature gradient tomorrow......trials will be in the low 40's.....while phl is dancing near 70....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Lol....I know you love those kind of days....today is absolutely amazing.....57 here now....def going to 60....... Intense temperature gradient tomorrow......trials will be in the low 40's.....while phl is dancing near 70....... Good thing I'll be in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Good thing I'll be in Philly. For all the right reasons....bring flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've seen numerous cases in which warm fronts blow by our area in March/April but get hung up to our south in May/June (in the same spring). Late winter / early spring we generally have stronger surface cyclones, which obviously help tremendously w/ getting warm air advection very far north. Later in the spring, we often have boundaries with weaker lows attached to them, as the natural progression into summer occurs of less intense mid latitude jet stream and lessening baroclinicity. Given the pattern we're in and today's temperatures, I'd be surprised if most of us aren't in the warm sector tomorrow. 12z GFS indicates the front should easily be through NYC by 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Good thing I'll be in Philly. philly is one town full of hot air all year long.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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