bluewave Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The models are still a bit far out in time for specific details just yet, but this looks like an early spring warm up and cold frontal passage later this week. The specific evolution of the trough along with the strength and exact track of the low will determine the outcome. This has the general look of a pattern that could produce temperatures in the 60's for parts of the area. We could also be looking at wind event and low topped squall set up for some areas from the MA northward. The models are advertising a warm surge ahead of the front with a strong jet exit region nearby. The closer the surface low tracks tracks to the area the stronger the storm potential would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I think we are in for some wild weather starting this week - been to quiet around here for too long - expect more extremes the next month - we have had various types of extreme weather the last couple of years - blizzards floods heat - haven't really had extreme cold yet - but that might be right around the corner - actually this winter has been extreme overall - if you like mild and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The models are still a bit far out in time for specific details just yet, but this looks like an early spring warm up and cold frontal passage later this week. The specific evolution of the trough along with the strength and exact track of the low will determine the outcome. This has the general look of a pattern that could produce temperatures in the 60's for parts of the area. We could also be looking at wind event and low topped squall set up for some areas from the MA northward. The models are advertising a warm surge ahead of the front with a strong jet exit region nearby. The closer the surface low tracks tracks to the area the stronger the storm potential would be. Agreed, the late week set up looks like the most active time frame we had this month, and as I also said in the banter thread this looks to me like a classic warmth/rain/wind type of event. As long as there's no big change in the set up, the timing and location of the storm could easily allow temperatures to reach and pass 60 degrees on Friday, along with gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the form of a squall line as you mentioned. Wednesday also looks like a mild day with temperatures probably getting near 60 degrees; the NAM and GFS right now show mid 50s but I've seen them adjust warmer in the short range before in cases like this one. It's nothing that we haven't seen this winter, but at least there's finally a decent storm showing up in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'd be a little weary on forecasting 60 for Wednesday.. The Euro and GFS pretty much have 850's in the 0 -> -2 range, which really supports temps more in the low to mid 50's as opposed to upper 50's. It looks like the warm front doesn't move north until that night. Thursday, on the other hand, looks like we can definitely get well into that 55-60 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has the storm bombing out to close to 960 mb... could be looking at some mega wind around here Friday night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has the storm bombing out to close to 960 mb... could be looking at some mega wind around here Friday night and Saturday. How strong are mega winds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has the storm bombing out to close to 960 mb... could be looking at some mega wind around here Friday night and Saturday. i can't see the euro on any website... could you give more details about that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has the storm bombing out to close to 960 mb... could be looking at some mega wind around here Friday night and Saturday. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Sweet. Agree winds are awesome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I'd be a little weary on forecasting 60 for Wednesday.. The Euro and GFS pretty much have 850's in the 0 -> -2 range, which really supports temps more in the low to mid 50's as opposed to upper 50's. It looks like the warm front doesn't move north until that night. Thursday, on the other hand, looks like we can definitely get well into that 55-60 range. Wednesday does look borderline for temperatures getting close to 60 degrees, although they could be possible, with the NWS actually going on the warmer side of the guidance with a high of 58 in NE NJ. I agree about Thursday holding the better potential for upper 50s and also probably lower 60s, which the ECM suggests. Friday will be more difficult to get to 60 degrees with the rain and cloudy skies, but there could still be a temperatures spike to the lower 60s before the cold front comes through as long as the storm is northwest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 MEGA winds like mach 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 i can't see the euro on any website... could you give more details about that storm? As per the 12z Euro: From 96 hours to 120 hours, the storm would track from eastern Ohio to the vicinity of Quebec City. Its pressure would fall from 986 mb to 959 mb over that 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Agree winds are awesome lol you can keep the mega winds , ice, rain and cold just give me the mega snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 These are decent winds on the 12z ECM from the Wunderground free maps... if such a scenario was to verify there'd easily be wind advisories across the region with widespread 40+ mph gusts. The GFS and UKMET are also not too different, and the NAM appears to be taking steps towards a more GFS-like scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 These are decent winds on the 12z ECM from the Wunderground free maps... if such a scenario was to verify there'd easily be wind advisories across the region with widespread 40+ mph gusts. The GFS and UKMET are also not too different, and the NAM appears to be taking steps towards a more GFS-like scenario. We want stronger then that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We want stronger then that! 40mph is child's play. Starts getting interesting upwards of 45-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 40mph is child's play. Starts getting interesting upwards of 45-50. Yeah if it's not a high wind warning it's Boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah if it's not a high wind warning it's Boring Agreed. I start to get interested if we are 55+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah if it's not a high wind warning it's Boring We've had advisory criteria winds so far but barely any high wind warning criteria winds... I'm rooting for the ECM with this one so at least it could get close to high wind watch/warning criteria in some places, although realistically at this time I'm thinking the gusts could be somewhere near the 40-45 mph range. The 12z UKMET also looks windy with a 977mb storm over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Euro has the storm bombing out to close to 960 mb... could be looking at some mega wind around here Friday night and Saturday. UGGGGHHHH not what I wanted to here, I have a flight out of EWR on Saturday evening. Maybe by then the winds will have time to die down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Way too early to begin wind casting. (Strong) winds are one of the most difficult parameters to forecast, even within 48 hours. If I had a nickel for every time a storm was forecast too bring strong winds, only to watch a calm precip event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Way too early to begin wind casting. (Strong) winds are one of the most difficult parameters to forecast, even within 48 hours. If I had a nickel for every time a storm was forecast too bring strong winds, only to watch a calm precip event... Lately during wind events the winds have overperformed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 For what it's worth, the 18z GFS took a huge leap towards the NAM - in other words, a much flatter solution with a weaker storm, temperatures not as warm, and nothing impressive with the wind. I'm hoping it doesn't trend that way so that we'll still have something interesting to track, but with the way the models have been this year, who knows what'll happen next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 That was unexpected... I thought the GFS was by itself with its weird 18z solution, but the NAM handles this even more differently. I'd rather wait to see the rest of the 0z models, and after all it's still the NAM's less accurate long range with the ECM/UKMET still showing a strong storm, but if it is onto something after all and isn't just an outlier solution, the forecast for Friday could noticeably change towards a less interesting outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 European still showing quite an intense storm system traversing across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The models just can't seem to agree on something even 72 hours out... it's down to the UKMET/ECM (strong amplified storm) against the CMC (which develops a secondary low offshore) and the GFS, which only has a mostly dry cold front moving through. Normally I would think that the NAM/GFS would cave in to the more amplified models, but with so many differences it's hard to tell for sure which model is correct, although given this pattern the ECM may be a bit too amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Winds don't really get interesting until they're up past 65-70 mph. At that range it turns into a roaring sound and trees start really taking damage. That's what March 2010 was here and it was really almost devastating for this area. Parts of town had no power for over a week. And that was almost entirely unforecasted (I believe we initially were in a wind advisory). We also had 3-4" of rain from the storm. It really resembled a hurricane, and windwise I would say it was worse than Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 We've had advisory criteria winds so far but barely any high wind warning criteria winds... I'm rooting for the ECM with this one so at least it could get close to high wind watch/warning criteria in some places, although realistically at this time I'm thinking the gusts could be somewhere near the 40-45 mph range. The 12z UKMET also looks windy with a 977mb storm over Maine. To get a really bad wind event, you would want the storm to be west of us after being over the open water and strengthening rapidly. Again, that's what March 2010 did. It literally curved back to the NW after forming off the Delmarva. We were in the extremely windy NE quadrant and under the brunt of the low level jet and dynamics off the Atlantic for many hours. The winds lasted for at least 6-8 hours-the worst was right after dusk when we had 75 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Winds don't really get interesting until they're up past 65-70 mph. At that range it turns into a roaring sound and trees start really taking damage. That's what March 2010 was here and it was really almost devastating for this area. Parts of town had no power for over a week. And that was almost entirely unforecasted (I believe we initially were in a wind advisory). We also had 3-4" of rain from the storm. It really resembled a hurricane, and windwise I would say it was worse than Irene. Definitely agree with the last statement; the rain was far worse with Irene, but the strong winds were much more sustained with March 2010. With that storm, I lost power in the middle of the storm while there were still 60+ mph gusts with very heavy rain and thunder, while with Irene I only lost power with a moderate gust a couple of hours after the rain ended. Even if this storm blows up as much as the ECM/UKMET show it, the gusts still aren't going to match those of March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hows it looking as for winds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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