MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 850s as is is not going to bring any snow to the region... It's further south than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's further south than previous runs And does in fact show snow for parts of the region. I don't understand why it's worth his time to be so sure of a storm that's still one week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's further south than previous runs You always harp in on that The EC is definitely the southernmost global. If it continues to trend south and the other models start heading in the same direction, I'll pay more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Gfs and euro are way different . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Gfs and euro are way different . 6z isnt that different really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It is still early yet. Can not say that for sure. Over a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It is still early yet. Can not say that for sure. Over a week away. Not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 It is still early yet. Can not say that for sure. Over a week away. 2/29 -3/1 is over a week away ? What calendar are you using? 12Z GFS is coming in rain and mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It is still early yet. Can not say that for sure. Over a week away. More like 5... And I thought you gave up on winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 this is not going to trend south enough to give NYC any frozen PERIOD Give some meteorological reasoning or take this crap to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The GFS trended north from 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like the 12z ggem has that second burst of precip that the euro had last night. From hours 120-132. The overrunning looks like the euro last night. That second burst of precip looks like the euro as well, except it looks colder then last nights euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Not true. I just don't know where these people get this stuff. Can we finally ever come to an understanding that there is NO COLD AIR indicated anywhere for the NYC Metro Region. It takes cold air to get snow or signficant wintry precip. NO COLD AIR=NO SNOW. Frankly, barring some really drastic and unusual kind of changes, this winter, which never really started, is OVER! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 I just don't know where these people get this stuff. Can we finally ever come to an understanding that there is NO COLD AIR indicated anywhere for the NYC Metro Region. It takes cold air to get snow or signficant wintry precip. NO COLD AIR=NO SNOW. Frankly, barring some really drastic and unusual kind of changes, this winter, which never really started, is OVER! WX/PT Just had a snow squall with high winds 15 minutes ago - old man winter just reminding us he is still around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like the 12z ggem has that second burst of precip that the euro had last night. From hours 120-132. The overrunning looks like the euro last night. That second burst of precip looks like the euro as well, except it looks colder then last nights euro. 12Z GGEM is a smidge further south than the 0Z. However, that burst of precip you mention... is weaker on the new GGEM as compared to the old GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 So you throw this statement in to protect yourself in case there is a future snow event up this way, but then make an anti-scientific and completely opinionated doctrinaire statement about the winter being "over"? Coming from a met, who should be better than this... Let's wait for the next few runs of the Euro before making any definitive statements. Please. Not at all true. I have seen snow squalls as far south as Virginia as late as mid-late April. In geographically favored locations locally, you can get these fifteen minute thrills into early May and then the next day it's 50, 60, or 70 degrees. That's NOT winter. It happens in October too. The fact of the matter is that there is no way right now for genuinely cold airmasses to even make their way into the CONUS no-less stick around in the necessary position (to our n and w without moving out) to produce snow or wintry precip. You and others in this forum keep denying that fact. It would take an enormous pattern change which a few runs of the Euro are not going to do. We've seen this before. You might get one ECMWF run here or there that teases, but that huge pattern change which is necessary is neither imminent or likely, period. The other option is for a storm to make its own cold air, but it's just not going to be quite cold enough. You may have seen a post of mine a day or so ago referring to the unusual weather events here in March of 1972. I said there were some similarities between this year and that year, and there are. But the difference is the extreme lack of cold air this year as opposed to then (when it was lacking, but not so much). WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I don't think its necessarily wrong to follow the models, even though I think you guys are getting your hopes higher than you should. However, when things which are blatantly false get thrown around ("The EC shows 4-8 on NYC and LI" or "Its still over a week out", both statements which have been tossed around in the last 12 hours), then we have some real issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro shows snow for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro shows snow for next week. Sure...in White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro shows snow for next week. This statement should be in banter, but how havent you been 5 posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro did come a smidge south. My friend gets the maps from the paid site and he told me it is snow. I did not see it so do not critisize me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro did come a smidge south. My friend gets the maps from the paid site and he told me it is snow. I did not see it so do not critisize me. ok Snow - I changed the sub title description for this thread to a cold rain since the Euro has some frozen just to the north - question is how far south will this continue to trend ? Also on another note - lets stop the bullying in here - no need for personal attacks against fellow posters just because you don't agree with their ideas about the weather pattern etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Sure...in White Plains. Which is well within the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ok Snow - I changed the sub title description for this thread to a cold rain since the Euro has some frozen just to the north - question is how far south will this continue to trend ? Also on another note - lets stop the bullying in here - no need for personal attacks against fellow posters just because you don't agree with their ideas about the weather pattern etc. North of NYC is still the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Sure...in White Plains. That's the first wave of precipitation. Metfan is talking about the 2nd wave of precipitation with an OV event that does give NYC snow at 123 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Hr 120 - Light-Mod precip over the area. Freezing line runs through NW jersey and SE NY. 0c 850 line is south near trenton Hr 126- Moderate Precip over most of the area. Freezing line same spot, 850's a tick cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Problem remains in the fact that the ECM has been showing snow fall occurring in the NYC region and KPHL region so much this winter and almost every time the ECM has showed these scenarios they have not come to fruition.. Those wunderground maps have given my area like 90 inches of snow this winter season and so far this winter season my area is sitting at 5.2 inches without including octobers... That is not a good record... Even today with the cold front having moved thru temps are only at seasonal levels which now (where i am ) is in the low 40s.Seasonable temps are no longer going to be able to cut a snowfall... While the ECM has been showing a further south solution etc ..its ensemble means have always been showing a further north solution.. Teleconnections wise we are currently looking at a + Arctic Oscillation A + North Atlantic Oscillation And A PNA that is declining into the negative realms... This essentially tells us that the teleconnections are lined up against a snowstorm from occurring with any cold enough air locked up over Canada and perhaps Northern New England could benefit with being nearer to the source of high pressure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 And A PNA that is declining into the negative realms... Well a -PNA may actually help us out in this instance, like it did with January 21st, because it would deamplify the flow which would prevent any storm system from becoming too strong and tracking to our north, giving us rain. That was the reason why we got snow and not rain from January 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well a -PNA may actually help us out in this instance, like it did with January 21st, because it would deamplify the flow which would prevent any storm system from becoming too strong and tracking to our north, giving us rain. That was the reason why we got snow and not rain from January 21st. Completely different teleconnections Jan 21st time frame we had a negative AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif And we has a PNA on the upswing http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif So the negative AO allowed the seasonal to below seasonal temps to occur and the PNA on the upswing was just enough for amplification.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Which is well within the NYC metro area. Awesome. I live close to White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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