MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 huh? It shows a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 huh? Primary into the lakes and then a transfer a secondary off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Primary into the lakes and then a transfer a secondary off the coast. Yeah I know...looks warm in NY/NJ and up into parts of CT...looks good for most of SNE though. Warmer then yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Pretty much exactly what I described in my last post -- primary running to the Lakes, secondary transfer but too far north for our area, enough to save central/northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah I know...looks warm in NY/NJ and up into parts of CT...looks good for most of SNE though. Warmer then yesterday's 12z run. It is still much colder and further south than the GFS and GGEM. This will most likely change a million times as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah I know...looks warm in NY/NJ and up into parts of CT...looks good for most of SNE though. Warmer then yesterday's 12z run. Completely different upper air pattern, too. The h5 trough closes off over Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It is still much colder and further south than the GFS and GGEM. This will most likely change a million times as we get closer. Yes it will. But the overall pattern is still terrible for our area and anyone south of us. I guess if a few things break well, areas like Harrford and Boston could sneak in a few moderate events. Decent chances north of there in N MA into Central/ N New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yes it will. But the overall pattern is still terrible for our area and anyone south of us. I guess if a few things break well, areas like Harrford and Boston could sneak in a few moderate events. Decent chances north of there in N MA into Central/ N New England. Agree. I don't think the over amplified solutions will work out because of the progressive flow. I will still watch out for this storm. I know a lot of people don;t like this setup but there isn't really anything to talk about before or after this storm so this might be the last potential of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yes it will. But the overall pattern is still terrible for our area and anyone south of us. I guess if a few things break well, areas like Harrford and Boston could sneak in a few moderate events. Decent chances north of there in N MA into Central/ N New England. SWFEvents in March are usually not kind to NYC and south. Areas north of the Bronx, SWCT and northern NJ have a better chance, if the event were to turn out to be a swfe, like the euro is depicting. Still though, that H5 low closing off in Indiana can change many, many times in the next few runs. If that goes further south and closes off closer and south of our area, we could also manage a little front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yes it will. But the overall pattern is still terrible for our area and anyone south of us. I guess if a few things break well, areas like Harrford and Boston could sneak in a few moderate events. Decent chances north of there in N MA into Central/ N New England. Agreed. Wouldn't be surprised to see Boston sneak ahead of the rest of I-95 over the next couple weeks (not by much, but possibly bringing their total into the 10s for the winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It is still much colder and further south than the GFS and GGEM. This will most likely change a million times as we get closer. You keep looking at the interpretation of where the models think the 850`s are -and say " its colder " .," its further south " not sure if 2 meter temps or surface temps are that cold . In a pattern like this even when a secondary forms east of the delmarva - theres no blocking and surface temps prob not that cold on the coastal plain . with a pos AO- and pos NAO .this system will be too proggressive to be meaningful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It shows a miller B looking at those maps we dont get a whole lot...I wish I could see the previous 6 and 12 hour panels but the low develops too far north plus look at the RH fields at h7 and h85...nada...no precip. The idea of a front end dump isnt feasible it will be too warm prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 looking at those maps we dont get a whole lot...I wish I could see the previous 6 and 12 hour panels but the low develops too far north plus look at the RH fields at h7 and h85...nada...no precip. The idea of a front end dump isnt feasible it will be too warm prior to the storm. I have the maps its rain from start to finish.....Idc if it's south and colder then gfs or ggem.....a few need to understand this has no potential and read Isotherms thread about the pattern.....metfan u will not see flake in ur backyard until next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Take this stuff to the banter thread. Read earthlight's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The longwave pattern support is not there at all for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 For the first time in 9 runs, the euro ensemble mean lost the coastal. Now looks similar to the operational. Primary into the lakes through hour 150 then transfer to the coast almost on top of NYC. All rain for NYC and a decent thumping for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 For the first time in 9 runs, the euro ensemble mean lost the coastal. Now looks similar to the operational. Primary into the lakes through hour 150 then transfer to the coast almost on top of NYC. All rain for NYC and a decent thumping for parts of SNE. Another reason why model consistency for an event in the D 7-10 range means virtually nothing. Euro ensembles have had the coastal idea for a few days now, but consistency doesn't equal accuracy, that's for sure. The pattern argues for this latest correction toward the stronger primary and later secondary transfer to the coast, probably at our latitude or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 GFS and Euro are horrible for this storm. This storm looks dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 SWFEvents in March are usually not kind to NYC and south. Areas north of the Bronx, SWCT and northern NJ have a better chance, if the event were to turn out to be a swfe, like the euro is depicting. Still though, that H5 low closing off in Indiana can change many, many times in the next few runs. If that goes further south and closes off closer and south of our area, we could also manage a little front end thump. Even LI especially the north shore could get into the act too. NYC and southward tends to stay in the side with less snow. I think this will be the case in this coming even where New England and Upstate NY will get a good dumping while the Northern suburbs and even LI could get some light accumulations. NYC should be mainly rain with brief period of snow and sleet possible on the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 GFS and Euro are horrible for this storm. This storm looks dead. Never really was alive in the first place. Too far out and as some people here already said, the pattern doesn't support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Never really was alive in the first place. Too far out and as some people here already said, the pattern doesn't support it. Looks like NNE does well once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It was obvious from the get-go how horrible the overall pattern was for this storm for the East Coast, so it's not surprising in the least that it's becoming a big cutter. It could benefit New England if the low starts occluding, or if a stubborn high anchors in some cold air. Around here though, cold rain like today. You really need the blocking to be in place, or perfect timing/amplification. Neither are likely given the progressive nature of the flow, and downright awful pattern up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 you know it's bad winter around here when we have a 7 page thread on a Lakes cutter. You received 3" of snow out of nowhere last night. You should not be complaining at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Its sad to say another one bites the dust. I was really hoping we could pull out at least one MEC. The clock is ticking and its not looking good,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 2/25/2012 00Z ECMWF is showing a Leap Day 2/29 and 3/1 MECS event for NYC, LI and New England for Warning criteria of SN/IP and ZR. Looks like a disruptive winter storm threat north of I-78. Confluence and high position are excellent. First warning event of the winter. Around next Saturday 3/3 it looks like a 40-45 degree 55 knot gust SouEaster rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 2/25/2012 00Z ECMWF is showing a MECS event for NYC, LI and New England for Warning criteria of SN/IP and ZR. Looks like a disruptive winter storm threat north of I-78. Confluence and high position are excellent. First warning event of the winter. Around next Saturday it looks like a 40-45 degree 55 knot gust SouEaster rain event. Call me nuts but the two assertions seem to conflict one with the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Leap Day Event and the 3/3/12 events ... sorry.. Call me nuts but the two assertions seem to conflict one with the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 2/25/2012 00Z ECMWF is showing a Leap Day 2/29 and 3/1 MECS event for NYC, LI and New England for Warning criteria of SN/IP and ZR. Looks like a disruptive winter storm threat north of I-78. Confluence and high position are excellent. First warning event of the winter. It shows nothing of the sort. Maybe a little slop snow right at the end on 3/1. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 850s as is is not going to bring any snow to the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 In fairness, there is some snow progged in the lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. But nothing of significance over NYC and LI proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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