NYCSuburbs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18z GEFS mean looks very similar to the Euro ENS, strong signal for a coastal storm with a 1011 mb low off the coast and .25-.5" of precipitation over the area in a 12 hour period. There is more precipitation before and after this frame that falls because of this storm. The mean looks nothing like the operational. There probably are a few hits in the GEFS with the higher precipitation amounts near the coast. Some of the members are noticeably colder with snow in NYC (especially P001), but it's barely worth anything at hour 180, by tomorrow night we could easily be looking at something different on the models. With the history of model performance this winter I also wouldn't count on much agreement on this until at least the 84-102 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Calling as I see it most likely, the GFS is the follower, not the lead model on this situation. GFS goes to a coastal on the 00Z 2/3 or 12Z 2/3 run as ECMWF gradually trends further out into the ocean with this. That's my gut feeling. The final verdict is a long way from being in. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 you expect the Euro to be more suppressed south and east ???? What would cause that ? There's no blocking, it's a progressive pattern basically. The west coast is rather flat. Slight ridging over the Rockies to plains usually means the trough in the east will be too far to the east. Basically, same story as last week. The only difference is that the ECMWF is more the leader on the better track with this one. No doubt it is slightly more trustworthy, but realistically, I just don't see enough cold air, and odds are it ends up further east than most of us would want. But it has a slightly better shot than last week only because it's the ECMWF leading the way. Once the ECMWF loses it to the east, I think odds of our getting this diminish to even lower, so one had better hope the ECMWF holds serve. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 There's no blocking, it's a progressive pattern basically. The west coast is rather flat. Slight ridging over the Rockies to plains usually means the trough in the east will be too far to the east. Basically, same story as last week. The only difference is that the ECMWF is more the leader on the better track with this one. No doubt it is slightly more trustworthy, but realistically, I just don't see enough cold air, and odds are it ends up further east than most of us would want. But it has a slightly better shot than last week only because it's the ECMWF leading the way. Once the ECMWF loses it to the east, I think odds of our getting this diminish to even lower, so one had better hope the ECMWF holds serve. WX/PT Just a simpler way of putting it. If I were going to have one model bangin' me, it would be the Euro. Last week it was the GFS and you saw where that ended up. ECMWF way outperformed the GFS. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Just a simpler way of putting it. If I were going to have one model bangin' me, it would be the Euro. Last week it was the GFS and you saw where that ended up. ECMWF way outperformed the GFS. WX/PT this far out as well as it did with the last weekend system i doubt it does. like you said pattern screams supressed and OTS but thing could come up the coast still just not a very good chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Does anybody have info on NYC snowstorms that had unfavorable setups ? There have not been too many huge NYC all snow events with unfavorable setups, there have however been many that transitioned to sleet or rain with relatively high amounts prior to that. 2/11/94 was a very unfavorable setup that was well timed, the NAO was positive, there was a trough out west, but the high was in place at the right time. PDII was sort of a 2/11/94 on steroids, split flow with no ridge out west and NAO quickly becoming positive. 12/28/90 could be one of the worst setups ever, raging +NAO and AO and monster trough in the west but a solid 4-7 inches for most areas. The ugliest setups for NYC usually do not involve a strong low pressure center because in poor setups you're going over to rain in that scenario. The lousy setups that produced are typically big overrunning type storms where there is a strong high in place to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like the 0z euro is going to look like the gfs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like the 0z euro is going to look like the gfs now. Not the same at this timeframe: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I have to say this brings back memories of March 2001. Anybody else remember that epic disaster? Went from a MECS 24 hours out to less than an advisory snow the day of. Storm was a beast for the inland folks, just nobody in or around the NY metro. Can't say it was a "beast" on Long Island...but certainly one of the two best March snowstorms of the decade out here; the other being in March, 2009. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - SNOW AMOUNTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1105 AM EST WED MAR 7 2001 THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE RECENT LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT. SNOW FINALLY ENDED ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS INDICATE THE MAXIMUM SNOW RECEIVED FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SUFFOLK COUNTY... AQUEBOGUE 12.2 CENTEREACH 15.6 EAST QUOGUE 10.0 EAST SETAUKET 16.0 EAST HAMPTON AIRPORT 10.0 EAST YAPHANK 12.6 HUNTINGTON 16.0 MATTITUCK 10.1 MANORVILLE 13.0 MIDDLE ISLAND 10.5 MILLER PLACE 13.0 MOUNT SINAI 13.0 NWS UPTON 14.2 PLUM ISLAND 12.0 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 13.3 RIDGE 15.0 RIVERHEAD 13.2 ROCKY POINT 10.0 RONKONKOMA 11.0 SAG HARBOR 11.0 SELDEN 14.0 SETAUKET 10.5 SHOREHAM 14.0 ST. JAMES 12.5 WADING RIVER 13.0 WESTHAMPTON 12.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like the 0z euro is going to look like the gfs now. Not quite but it did trend north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Not the same at this timeframe: http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS192.gif I think he was referencing the further west solution taking away the MECS that the 12 Z was showing.. GGEM is slower then the GFS as well but also a western solution... The GFS is just more progressive then what the ECM is at the present time.. Even the NOGAPS is slower then the GFS,,should be a tell tale indication that the most progressive model looks more like the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It looks weaker, but at least the development was not the same. Looks like a swfe on the euro. SNE cashes in on this Friday's event and also this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Significantly better 6z GFS, not that it matter this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Significantly better 6z GFS, not that it matter this far out. almost looks like the 6z from yesterday but a bit warmer... also another threat showing by day 9-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Gfs is looking much better. These solutions will keep on changing as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Can't really trust any model solution right now especially after the 6Z GFS OP shifts way south so drastically the 6Z ensembles are suppressed also - I tend to doubt this storm will end up as suppressed as the last one though the main problem is the availability of cold enough air - even with stronger HP somewhere to the north - timing has to be just right with this one http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z GFS has a coastal.. warm verbatim for much of it, but big step to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z GFS has a coastal.. warm verbatim for much of it, but big step to the Euro. Think you mean 6z GFS. Euro Ens look fine for this storm still. Nothing to worry about, yet, other than the overall unfavorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z GFS has a coastal.. warm verbatim for much of it, but big step to the Euro. 00z euro has no coastal..lakes cutter and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 00z euro has no coastal..lakes cutter and rain do the Euro Ensembles have a lake cutter ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 do the Euro Ensembles have a lake cutter ????? No, they have a low that goes into SE Ohio and then transfers off the coast of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 GFS going back to Cutter idea into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Guys ,that SE ridge means business - The trough is goin into the west - we are not getting a snowstorm in this pattern . your about to limp into spring , with a few days of normal mixed in . There is no cold air and thats not news . Its an unfavorable pattern for a system to creae its own cold air during this tiem frame . Its a flate wave at best with a pos NAO . I know its been a crap winter , but this isn`t our answer . I dont care if it doesnt go to the lakes ( which is more likely with the ridge ) it will still find a way not to snow in this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 with no blocking and +AO and +NAO, it's the probable solution. In a progressive pattern with no blocking you can still get a lakes cutter. Notice how each these moves through very quickly over the next two weeks on the GFS. This also means that the likelihood of getting a meaningful 50/50 low is extremely remote. That in combination with increasingly warm air pouring into each system out of the GOM fuels each storm to make that left-hand turn into the lakes. If this holds to be true, the tornado season will get underway early for folks in the plains, Mississippi Valley and midwest. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 we can still get a temporary 50/50 from the storm that will be crossing to the north a couple days before this one - also how strong does that storm become ? There is strong high pressure in southern canada right behind that storm which could also help to suppress the 2/29 - 3/1 storm The models aren't even close to getting all the data they need to start giving a close to accurate run.... Even with strong high pressure, there's nothing in the pattern downstream that would lock that cold over southern Canada, like a 50/50 low or blocking feature. Given the surrounding synoptics, the burgeoning SE ridge is likely to run the low into at least the lower Lakes, before it transfers too far north to have any favorable impact for NYC southward. I can maybe see a situation in which the secondary develops far enough south to save interior SNE, but in general this pattern looks like a snowy one for the Lakes and northern New England. Significant snow is a very far fetched idea for the I-95 corridor over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 OK since everyone has given up lets lock up the thread - no need talking about it anymore....... Or maybe we could just set you to 5 posts a day for consistently clogging up threads with crap like this. You pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I just un-approved over 20 posts from the last 24 hours in this thread that were either off topic or were statements with absolutely no backing or reasoning to them. Get your stuff together, dudes. You guys are better than this and the post quality here has been absolutely atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Through 132 hours, you can already see that the Euro has completely abandoned its handling of the northern stream from yesterdays run. The trough axis is already deep over the Central Plains. Without any blocking this is a very bad set up for the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 In case anyone is wondering, the 12z euro shows a massive lakes cutter for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 In case anyone is wondering, the 12z euro shows a massive lakes cutter for this storm. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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