earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Sweet Homie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 this place is like the stock market - all of a sudden everyone is now enthused about this event - an hour ago a bunch of doubters - who is to believe ? The Euro or the GFS-hmmmmm....like I said earlier - "right - the Euro always follows the GFS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 this place is like the stock market - all of a sudden everyone is now enthused about this event - who to believe ? I don't know where you're getting the idea that anybody is enthused about this event....about 10 knowledgeable posters just gave several reasons as to why the pattern is unfavorable...and then a bunch of people laughed at the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The Euro trying to show another Boxing Day redux, its done this a couple of other times this winter, the only reason it is semi-believable this time is the fact the previous storm explodes in SE Canada and the entire pattern progression could be slowed a bit, still this is going to be another very tough event to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 998 east of Atlantic city at 186 -192 hrs...big snowstorm for the entire area...surface low goes from OBX to just off the NJ Coast...H5 closes off...deform band sitting from PHL to BOS at 12z Thursday uh-huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 192hr from Allan's site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 uh-huh. Yeah. My exact reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 192hr from Allan's site: This looks like the 6z GFS but more intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The Euro trying to show another Boxing Day redux, its done this a couple of other times this winter, the only reason it is semi-believable this time is the fact the previous storm explodes in SE Canada and the entire pattern progression could be slowed a bit, still this is going to be another very tough event to get. The only reason why I am slightly intrigued is because the euro ensemble mean has shown a pretty large coastal for days. And hasn't waivered at all yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Another Euro fantasy snowstorm. Maybe it can get one right this year. I have 92" of fantasy snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 The only reason why I am slightly intrigued is because the euro ensemble mean has shown a pretty large coastal for days. And hasn't waivered at all yet. The way to go with this situation right now is with the euro since the ensembles have been consistent - the GFS has been all over the place so far and what caused that 12Z lakes cutter is the previous storm was not as intense and did not supress the pattern more..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 NOGAPS also says "Go Big or Go Home" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 nogaps was the only model last week that was lock in step with the euro. Maybe its the new nogaps/euro rule starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 nogaps was the only model last week that was lock in step with the euro. Maybe its the new nogaps/euro rule starting? HAHA! One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 nogaps was the only model last week that was lock in step with the euro. Maybe its the new nogaps/euro rule starting? That was probably because it was the entire setup biting into the NOGAPS progressive bias, I think the NOGAPS nailed 2/6/10 as well, any sort of suppressed type setup will usually perform well on the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 If this happens like the euro shows i will streak down my street in the snow. Hell ill even youtube it too, thats how much confidence i have in this happening cause i would NEVER do that and this system shouldnt happen either lol. Anyway like tornadojay said the storm explodes in se canada ahead of it acting to "slow" the flow down so that is a plus the cold high in canada FTWWWW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Can't get much better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Snowman here was mentioning over at accuweather forums that Adam from this forum was floating the March 1956 analog around - anyone have that link ? Anyways that year was a strong La Nina - this year has been around 0.9 - here is the chart http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's going to snow... I will be out of town all next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Even though I am extremely skeptical, and I take note that once again a genuinely cold airmass is extremely lacking over our region, I do believe this has a slightly better shot than the last one, but that's really not saying much. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah I will be in Florida from 2/25 to 3/1, so you can pretty much lock up the Euro solution. I have to say this brings back memories of March 2001. Anybody else remember that epic disaster? Went from a MECS 24 hours out to less than an advisory snow the day of. Storm was a beast for the inland folks, just nobody in or around the NY metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Another long range fantasy storm on the Euro, which only means one thing. Expect the complete opposite in a week, either mild and dry, mild and rainy, or chilly and rainy. It's so funny how when the models show a rainstorm a week out it verifies but things like a snow event never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah I will be in Florida from 2/25 to 3/1, so you can pretty much lock up the Euro solution. I have to say this brings back memories of March 2001. Anybody else remember that epic disaster? Went from a MECS 24 hours out to less than an advisory snow the day of. Storm was a beast for the inland folks, just nobody in or around the NY metro. How? First of all that winter was completely different from this one and second, this is just a long range fantasy storm, it's not like the models are showing this 2 days out or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah I don't get that comparison either. Also less than 50 miles north and west of NYC had over a foot for 3/01 storm, so it wasn't as far off as people think. How? First of all that winter was completely different from this one and second, this is just a long range fantasy storm, it's not like the models are showing this 2 days out or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I wish I can post the euro ensemble mean maps. Extremely impressive. Has a coastal low forming off Delmarva and giving snow from DC to Boston. For a day 7 ensemble product, its impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 How did the ECM even end up showing such a storm? That pattern still isn't too favorable as the western ridge is relatively weak and transient and the PV is in a not very favorable location. With the type of pattern expected the last thing I would've expected was to see a major snowstorm show up on any model, as it could easily fail just as almost every storm during this non-winter did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 How? First of all that winter was completely different from this one and second, this is just a long range fantasy storm, it's not like the models are showing this 2 days out or anything. The other models have been hinting at this for days, It comes and it goes. As some have said, its been on the Euro ensembles for many runs now and as one met pointed out, the GEFS solution doesn't even make since given the 1030 mb high in place. Even so, I am just as skeptical as the next person. The setup looks similar to that of 2001, without knowing that much about it. I am just going by the basic surface features. (Main low cutting through the TN valley, secondary popping but too far east, NY misses the big snows). This...and the time of year. http://www.hasbrouck...s01/snow1.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I wish I can post the euro ensemble mean maps. Extremely impressive. Has a coastal low forming off Delmarva and giving snow from DC to Boston. For a day 7 ensemble product, its impressive. Also just saw the euro spaghettis. Incredible agreement on a coastal storm, centered near or just east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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