bass28 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Figures itd show something like that,either to progressive or a lakes cutter.this suckss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS says enjoy the cutter. 988 Low over Chicago. Much more different than the Euro ensembles. It is still 180 hours so you never know. Indicies aren't in our favor but that doesn't mean we can't see a good storm. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Much more different than the Euro ensembles. It is still 180 hours so you never know. Indicies aren't in our favor but that doesn't mean we can't see a good storm. Time will tell. I've had my doubts from the beginning, but I guess I will see if the Euro starts going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I've had my doubts from the beginning, but I guess I will see if the Euro starts going that way. Nothing is in our favor so this will most likely be a rain event.We have seen storms in the past where snowstorms happen in bad setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Nothing is in our favor so this will most likely be a rain event.We have seen storms in the past where snowstorms happen in bad setups. I guess if snow happened in any storm in this winter, it would be a bad setup and late - when we all gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 I've had my doubts from the beginning, but I guess I will see if the Euro starts going that way. Right the Euro folowing the GFS - did that happen last week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Right the Euro folowing the GFS - did that happen last week ? It was way too amplified at this range - you're right. I guess I've just been beaten down by this winter. Certainly hope it does snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 This thread has been pretty silly up to this point to say the least. The period being watched in this thread will likely be defined by a +NAO and -PNA pattern which, more often than not, supports the development of a Southeast Ridge. Such a feature will likely raise heights on the east coast to the point where it will be incredibly difficult to get snow anywhere south of Southern New England. There's definitely still a chance there will a "decent" source of arctic air over Canada. Nevertheless, with the system ejecting from the southwest states to the north and east...warm air advection and a southwest flow in the mid/low levels appears likely if the current mid range modeling is reasonably accurate. This would likely promote a surface low track well too far to the north and west for frozen precipitation in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I lov u 2 guys ...you 2 get points for making this fun . . - The set up is terrible - The indicies are not favorable , Winter never existed and you are about to stick a huge trough into the west for a few weeks , Where did this idea come from a prog 240 hrs OFF THE GFS ? . Gotta take this stuff really lightly in great years let alone disaster years like this . . I would be shocked if it we just didnt stumble into spring from here , with a small couple days of normals in between . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Right the Euro folowing the GFS - did that happen last week ? The euro caved to the GFS with the event for this upcoming Friday. The euro had a bomb of a low and people were talking about big winds. While the GFS kept it weak and developed a secondary low. The euro now looks like the gfs. Weaker low and a developing secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 This thread has been pretty silly up to this point to say the least. The period being watched in this thread will likely be defined by a +NAO and -PNA pattern which, more often than not, supports the development of a Southeast Ridge. Such a feature will likely raise heights on the east coast to the point where it will be incredibly difficult to get snow anywhere south of Southern New England. There's definitely still a chance there will a "decent" source of arctic air over Canada. Nevertheless, with the system ejecting from the southwest states to the north and east...warm air advection and a southwest flow in the mid/low levels appears likely if the current mid range modeling is reasonably accurate. This would likely promote a surface low track well too far to the north and west for frozen precipitation in our area. It's amazing how persistent the PV near Baffin Island and western Greenland has been throughout the winter. That feature, more than anything else, has made it difficult to see a favorable storm track for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I guess the only thing is if mother nature has a sense of humor... It does, it's called a raging negative NAO from about mid-April to the beginning of June with cut off low after cut off low and about 50 inches of rain in 50 days. Mother nautre always corrects itself after extremes one way or another. Take this graphic for instance, on 9/27/11, only 2.76% of the northeast was abnormally dry, currently its up to 18.91% which is up over 2% in the past week. The good news is that the local reservoirs are still above normal with many still at or above 90% capacity. The bad news is that if we get a really wet Spring, it won't take much to put them back at maximum capacity and bring on all of the problems that occur when that happens. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 This thread has been pretty silly up to this point to say the least. The period being watched in this thread will likely be defined by a +NAO and -PNA pattern which, more often than not, supports the development of a Southeast Ridge. Such a feature will likely raise heights on the east coast to the point where it will be incredibly difficult to get snow anywhere south of Southern New England. There's definitely still a chance there will a "decent" source of arctic air over Canada. Nevertheless, with the system ejecting from the southwest states to the north and east...warm air advection and a southwest flow in the mid/low levels appears likely if the current mid range modeling is reasonably accurate. This would likely promote a surface low track well too far to the north and west for frozen precipitation in our area. I agree. Unless the upper air pattern changes in a huge way between now and then, I just don't see this being a favorable pattern at all outside the upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS says enjoy the cutter. 988 Low over Chicago. It figures, basically the first system at 96-144 which was bombing out on most models yesterday no longer is and as a result the pattern is markedly less suppressed so the second storm cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's amazing how persistent the PV near Baffin Island and western Greenland has been throughout the winter. That feature, more than anything else, has made it difficult to see a favorable storm track for the NYC metro. As long as that feature continues to be in place, say hello to warmth. The next few weeks looks like more of the same, 45-55 degree temps with the occasional Lakes Cutter. Spring should get going across the SE US with blooming vegetation and numerous strong T-storm chances in the next couple weeks. My question right now is the duration of this pattern - will we continue the unholy trio of +AO/+NAO/-PNA through March into early spring, or will we see some kind of change by mid march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I agree. Unless the upper air pattern changes in a huge way between now and then, I just don't see this being a favorable pattern at all outside the upper Midwest. Probably should end up being a decent pattern for them and possibly Northern New England with the potential developing gradient between the SE Ridge and PV to the north -- as well as active Pacific/ N stream flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ...and the Euro with an overrunning MECS for everybody at Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Major snowstorm on the euro at hr 174...overrunning to a Costal. Hr 180 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ...and the Euro with an overrunning MECS for everybody at Day 7. The Canadian and NOGAPS also more resemble the Euro and look virtually nothing like the GFS post 144 hours. The GFS probably is cracked again, its done a 180 its last 2-3 runs or so vs. the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Huge hit at 186...lol...if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 998 east of Atlantic city at 186 -192 hrs...big snowstorm for the entire area...surface low goes from OBX to just off the NJ Coast...H5 closes off...deform band sitting from PHL to BOS at 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 192 beautiful ccb from bos-phl....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 998 east of Atlantic city at 186 -192 hrs...big snowstorm for the entire area...surface low goes from OBX to just off the NJ Coast...H5 closes off...deform band sitting from PHL to BOS at 12z Thursday Can you remove the 1 and make it read 86- 92 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 EURO FTW???????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The Canadian and NOGAPS also more resemble the Euro and look virtually nothing like the GFS post 144 hours. The GFS probably is cracked again, its done a 180 its last 2-3 runs or so vs. the other models. All the models are the cracked at this range. As they have been this winter. The 12z GEFS has the primary low in the Great Lakes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 998 east of Atlantic city at 186 -192 hrs...big snowstorm for the entire area...surface low goes from OBX to just off the NJ Coast...H5 closes off...deform band sitting from PHL to BOS at 12z Thursday Going towards its ensembles? Euro ensembles have had a coastal with a lot of precip for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 +pna ftw on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Lol. I guess even with a "bad" pattern, the shorter wavelengths in early March make this not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 All the models are the cracked at this range. As they have been this winter. The 12z GEFS has the primary low in the Great Lakes: God that looks so idiotic. Its driving a low into a 1030mb high with a 50/50 type low in the N ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 All the models are the cracked at this range. As they have been this winter. The 12z GEFS has the primary low in the Great Lakes: Euro ensemble mean has had a coastal storm for several runs, including last night at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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