NYCSuburbs Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The 0z NMM was finally back to reality again after its 12z run which was too cold compared to the rest of the models. There's still some conflicting signs between a slightly cooler outcome, or a warmer one which the NMM/ARW, NAM and the 0z CMC are supporting, but for now I'd go with a solution a little colder than the NAM/CMC considering that there's still some cold around when the precip moves in, but with no accumulations in NYC, little to no accums in the N/W suburbs, and at least 1-3" going into southern CT and interior SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I agree that the colder solution. I expect a brief heavy burst of hesvy wet snow then go to sleet and eventually to rain for city and most of LI with little or no acculumation. It may the case that parts of LI may see more snow than NYC in this type of set up CAD is more prolong. The. E/SE flow will prevent this being major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 precip is advancing much faster than models had anticipated, although that is typical of SW flow events... it also seems significantly heavier than expected across NRN Indiana/Ohio. we're likely seeing mostly rain in the city regardless but it'll be interesting to see whether it starts as some decent snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z EC is snowier for these parts... Should be an interesting day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 6z NAM... 850s below freezing in NYC at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 probably grasping at straws but the precip is much more impressive than forecast over the GL (obvi time sensitive) http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php it may simply be rain to start, but if NYC has the NAM's thermal profiles for 3-4 hours after the onset of precip I would not be surprised to see a slushy accumulation and persistent rain/snow mix with huge gloppy flakes... the rates could be quite nice before changeover. looks like the event may even be significant for the northern suburbs? (question; more likely to see more snow with ~150' or so of elevation in West Harlem or 500' up in Midtown? we shall see come 10AM...!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Why ppl are surprised montauk will be colder then NYC is beyond me, they are further north, DUH. EDIT: DUH :facepalm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 HP in wrong place. That's all i can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I would wet bulb to 29 right now, in NYC not that it matters but if hi-res are right......uh-oh! (still expect sleet to rain although I love sleets effects when unexpected.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Why ppl are surprised montauk will be colder then NYC is beyond me, they are further north, DUH. EDIT: DUH :facepalm: Lack of onshore flow, rural radiational cooling and slightly further north position closer to the cold air source are the name of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Lack of onshore flow, rural radiational cooling and slightly further north position closer to the cold air source are the name of the game. I know, if the onset was sooner people would be surprised, but its not. montauk is in a better situation then NYC in this setup due to latitude but the end result is the same cold, Sh%*y rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Why ppl are surprised montauk will be colder then NYC is beyond me, they are further north, DUH. EDIT: DUH :facepalm: Now that this is effectively a banter thread i will respond...i am not surprised...i said it is weird...because 19 times out of 20 montauk will be warmer in a winter storm. Did i ever mention how could montauk be colder on a clear night? Or during the summer with a sea breeze? Im not a moron dude, i was stating that it was peculiar and abnormal, which it is. Sometimes you need to realize we have a bit more knowledge than you think and elevate the discussion a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Most areas south of I -80 will start as rain - areas north of I-80 might see a mix at the start only areas that will see mainly frozen to start are northwest NJ and maybe northern Westchester - orange counties http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I know, if the onset was sooner people would be surprised, but its not. montauk is in a better situation then NYC in this setup due to latitude but the end result is the same cold, Sh%*y rain. If latitude was the issue, why are sections north and west of here warmer too? Montauks latitude has very little to do with why they might stay colder longer....their longitude does in this case though. LOL at expecting montauk to be colder because its further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 There is sleet as far south as Fort Indiantown PA (MUI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Most areas south of I -80 will start as rain - areas north of I-80 might see a mix at the start only areas that will see mainly frozen to start are northwest NJ and maybe northern Westchester - orange counties http://www.intellica...cation=USDC0001 i disagree with this statement. I think alot of people will start has sleet south of I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 There is sleet as far south as Fort Indiantown PA (MUI). If the precip/rain shield stays like this and comes in as a wall, I could see some brief snow or sleet for the NYC metro before quickly going to rain. The cold air aloft is a little deeper here and the precip seems to be advancing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Surface temp and dewpoint will play a big role. Around NYC dews are still in the low 20s, but as close by as TTN its already up to 31 and rising. TTN south probably won't see anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 My temperature is 43 with a dewpoint of 33 in northeastern Middlesex County right across from Staten Island. Surface temp and dewpoint will play a big role. Around NYC dews are still in the low 20s, but as close by as TTN its already up to 31 and rising. TTN south probably won't see anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 39 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 According to mesonet, dewpoints are currently in 30s up to I-78 in NJ and along the south shore of NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 According to mesonet, dewpoints are currently in 30s up to I-78 in NJ and along the south shore of NYC and LI. Dew point 34 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's not looking so good south of I-80. DPs are quickly on the rise with an east wind. It's not really looking so great south of the apprx. 287 line. But it's possible the surface temps will cool a few degrees below the wetbulb temp as sometimes happens in heavy precip. I think I saw 43/29 at Newark. That's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wet bulbs are already above 35 in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wetbulb temps, rising fast. Already in mid 30s from North-Central NJ through LI, at this hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 No way NYC starts as anything but rain way to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Dew point 34 here Still holding at 24 here with a temp of 39...still think we start as rain...maybe sleet...90% rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 No way NYC starts as anything but rain way to warm Agreed. Maybe 5 minutes of sleet, but that's pushing it also. Congrats to the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Agreed, radar looks quite impressive thats for sure. No way NYC starts as anything but rain way to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 No way NYC starts as anything but rain way to warm I think NYC and at least the northern half of the metro will have some kind of frozen precip at some point in the first hour after onset. I bet places a close by as southern westchester will see an hour or two of moderate/heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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