tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snowfall. Smidge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The place to be for this is gonna be the catskills. 1-2' will be the common theme there. As for here in MBY I can see 6-8" happening. Lets see if Upton fails us again up here. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 they are going all rain except inland SE NY and inland CT surface temps in the low 40's east wind at the coast..why would they forecast anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 These type of events usually come in like a wall of white so I wouldnt be surprised if parts of the BX or extreme north shore of LI receive some accumulation. Last weeks event went from flurries to heavy snow in a matter of 5 mins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Strong sleet signature here on the NAM. 850's pushing +2 with everything else below freezing, especially cold at 925. Regardless, not expecting much snow here. Maybe a quick 1" to sleet then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Here is my snow map for the storm http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash2/65302_351914158164922_316323805057291_1099702_964239666_n.jpg Honestly storm is changing by the minute so for the people who follow me on my site I had to release some sort of a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like the NAM gave parts of Northern NJ nearly a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 they are going all rain except inland SE NY and inland CT And they gave you nothing last week and you woke up to 4 inches. What's your point? Do they control the weather? You bust on them left and right but now their zone forecast is the absolute outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why arent we in "Storm Mode" yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like the NAM gave parts of Northern NJ nearly a foot of snow That will make ya think twice when making a forecast. I just can't see that happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why arent we in "Storm Mode" yet? don't need to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like the NAM gave parts of Northern NJ nearly a foot of snow Is it just me or are the E-Wall snow maps for the NAM exaggerated for this storm? The soundings on Twisterdata show only 1 3-hour frame with moderate snow/sleet in NE NJ, the storm on the 18z NAM loop at NCEP also seems to support a brief period of snow/sleet over to rain, yet this map has me with nearly 8 inches... it doesn't seem to make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Is it just me or are the E-Wall snow maps for the NAM exaggerated for this storm? The soundings on Twisterdata show only 1 3-hour frame with moderate snow/sleet in NE NJ, the storm on the 18z NAM loop at NCEP also seems to support a brief period of snow/sleet over to rain, yet this map has me with nearly 8 inches... it doesn't seem to make sense. I really can't speak for the accuracy of these maps -- I don't know the algorithm or how it's made. In my experience that have been pretty "accurate" to what the model is showing...this time there does seem to be some disconnect between the other model data and the snowfall maps being produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 And they gave you nothing last week and you woke up to 4 inches. What's your point? Do they control the weather? You bust on them left and right but now their zone forecast is the absolute outcome. Never said that. Just stated what their forecast was. It's a tough call. Most of the time, the rain scenario verifies. But we had the 1 in 25 event last weekend and now you think every storm will do that...with the seasonal trend I'm thinking the rainn scenario for coastal CT is the correct one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NMM 0z runs should be interesting. Hopefully they stick with the cooling trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NMM 0z runs should be interesting. Hopefully they stick with the cooling trend. For what it's worth, it seems colder than the rest of the models... the NMM though does frequently show a wet bias, and this is possibly one of them - over 1/2" QPF in just 3 hours, even the NAM shows that much precipitation in a 6 hour, not a 3 hour frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 For what it's worth, it seems colder than the rest of the models... the NMM though does frequently show a wet bias, and this is possibly one of them - over 1/2" QPF in just 3 hours, even the NAM shows that much precipitation in a 6 hour, not a 3 hour frame. MM5 is also colder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NMM 0z runs should be interesting. Hopefully they stick with the cooling trend. Lol, unless it scores a major coup, it will be far off. Big outlier (MM5 closer though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol, unless it scores a major coup, it will be far off. Big outlier (MM5 closer though.) I will be happy if I see a few hours of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I will be happy if I see a few hours of sleet. This is what it's come to, where is the toaster when you need it. I would take any fathomable precipitation type over sleet at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Never said that. Just stated what their forecast was. It's a tough call. Most of the time, the rain scenario verifies. But we had the 1 in 25 event last weekend and now you think every storm will do that...with the seasonal trend I'm thinking the rainn scenario for coastal CT is the correct one people know where to find upton's forecast, the only reason to post it is if you agree with it yeah, i am predicting every storm will do that. Show me where I said that. This is a better setup than that, that is what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This is what it's come to, where is the toaster when you need it. I would take any fathomable precipitation type over sleet at all times. You like cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 people know where to find upton's forecast, yeah, i am predicting every storm will do that. Show me where I said that. This is a better setup than that, that is what I said. You said I always bust on them and say they are never right....but yet, now I think they are right? Ok, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This is what it's come to, where is the toaster when you need it. I would take any fathomable precipitation type over sleet at all times. You are officially dubbed "Anti-Rib". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Great beginning of the latest AFD from NWSFO Minneapolis: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 523 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 .DISCUSSION... WHAT A DIFFERENCE ABOUT 125 MILES MAKES... WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING VS HOW IT APPEARED TWO DAYS AGO. OVERALL... THIS MEANS THE FORECAST IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED... EXCEPT EVERYTHING HAS BEEN SHIFTED BY ABOUT THAT DISTANCE NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN TERMS OF THE HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS... AS WELL AS THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Is anyone else observing cooler than progged temperatures? My temperature is 33 Degrees in C NJ, and the Hi-Res models that initialized at 12z today print out that I should be in the 40s right now. What the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Is anyone else observing cooler than progged temperatures? My temperature is 33 Degrees in C NJ, and the Hi-Res models that initialized at 12z today print out that I should be in the 40s right now. What the heck? 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The temps being colder pretty much makes no difference. The precip is not set to reach us until around noonish tomorrow. Many hours of heating, along with the easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 45 here I guess I must be in some cool pocket or something... I was pretty surprised to see the temperature as cold is it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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