Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think you have to be north of I-84 to really have a shot here, but I agree that some slushy accums are possible for the south shore of CT and the White Plains area before a quick switch to rain or junk. Anyone on Long Island and the NYC area is out of it. The real accumulations won't be until you're well east of Hartford if the NAM is to be believed. Boston might get more from the storm than even the Berkshires or Litchfield Hills. and with a mid-day start time, that won't help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This is a WAA event. The precip usually arrives faster like you have stated with these type of events. Boston does very well on the NAM. Looks like over 1 QPF. Mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 and with a mid-day start time, that won't help us. You have a much better chance then the poster you quoted. Totally different animal between Long Beach sand bar on LI and you in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You have a much better chance then the poster you quoted. Totally different animal between Long Beach sand bar on LI and you in CT. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 similar situation to last Thursday night. don't count the area out yet, especially NE*** of the City for a quick front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12Z RGEM total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12Z RGEM total snowfall. A smidge further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A smidge further north. How about Minneapolis, going from 1' to 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A smidge further north. Congrats SNE How about Minneapolis, going from 1' to 1"? That's insane. I would have been pissed off big time if I was living there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How about Minneapolis, going from 1' to 1"? Like I said last night, that has to be the worst heartbreak area. Just yesterday morning they looked set for a major event. They might be almost all rain or slop now. Places like St. Cloud and Duluth look to get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah that is crazy. I'd much rather take our current situation...no chance of anything whatsoever...than think you're in line for something big a day or two out and have it not happen. Like I said last night, that has to be the worst heartbreak area. Just yesterday morning they looked set for a major event. They might be almost all rain or slop now. Places like St. Cloud and Duluth look to get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Congrats SNE That's insane. I would have been pissed off big time if I was living there. If you could take a snapshot of a classic Nina storm, this would be it, along with the lake cutter. Midwest and New England always get theirs sooner or later in these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ARW and NMM are much colder than the gfs and has more of cad for our area. Looks like a nice front end thump on the NMM . ARW looks ok . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 ARW and NMM are much colder than the gfs and has more of cad for our area. Looks like a nice front end thump on the NMM . ARW looks ok . what exact area are you talking about? obviously if the thump is frozen it is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 what exact area are you talking about? obviously if the thump is frozen it is wrong NYC area. Precip comes in early on both models and it's colder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 what exact area are you talking about? obviously if the thump is frozen it is wrong Both the MM5 and the NMM keep the 850 line south of NYC through hour 33. The Euro is pretty close to that as well. The surface temps are the issue, but if the precip comes in heavy, like the NMM shows, its possible to get slushy accumulations on non-paved surfaces. The MM5 also brings in the precip heavy before hour 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SPC-WRF also has heavy precip. This is only 3 hours of precip, hours 30-33: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 what exact area are you talking about? obviously if the thump is frozen it is wrong what are you talking about? Nothing today has changed the general idea that the precip comes in pretty heavy and the 850's across the entire area are below freezing to start the event with areas just to the north of the city staying below 0 for more of it. The other side is that there is plenty of room to wetbulb down to surface temps that will support slushy accumulations away from the beaches and UHI of nyc and further n and w I can easily see accumulations on all surfaces. The euro, gfs, ukmet, NMM, and Suny MM5 are all pretty close to bringing a more significant frozen even to the city itself. This doesnt mean accumulating snow, but I could see a prolonged period of sleet for the city after an initial burst of heavy wet snow. Further n and w I still see 2-4+ starting from the north bronx on n and w into hudson valley at CT with Danbury on North possibly getting to the magic 6 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 what are you talking about? Nothing today has changed the general idea that the precip comes in pretty heavy and the 850's across the entire area are below freezing to start the event with areas just to the north of the city staying below 0 for more of it. The other side is that there is plenty of room to wetbulb down to surface temps that will support slushy accumulations away from the beaches and UHI of nyc and further n and w I can easily see accumulations on all surfaces. The euro, gfs, ukmet, NMM, and Suny MM5 are all pretty close to bringing a more significant frozen even to the city itself. This doesnt mean accumulating snow, but I could see a prolonged period of sleet for the city after an initial burst of heavy wet snow. Further n and w I still see 2-4+ starting from the north bronx on n and w into hudson valley at CT with Danbury on North possibly getting to the magic 6 inch mark. Even in the UHI if it comes down heavy it would quickly accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Even in the UHI if it comes down heavy it would quickly accumulate. Surface temps will most likely be in the mid to upper 30s so if we do see snow , it will most likely accumulate on the colder surfaces . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12z NMM... Close but no cigar for the city, per this wright-weather.com animation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM sounding at 18Z tomorrow. That may be mixed at the surface, or even pure wet snow, but its gonna have real trouble sticking. GFS sounding same time. I'd bet more on the NAM thermal profiles, but just showing that the GFS is even warmer. NAM sounding at 21Z tomorrow. Just to show how quickly it warms. The typical bias is colder surface, warmer aloft. Of course that makes things REALLY tricky because colder surface might mean snowier but warmer aloft might mean sleetier. Right now in the city, I'd bet on a brief bit of snow, then some sleet perhaps accumulating a light coating before switching over to rain by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM sounding at 18Z tomorrow. That may be mixed at the surface, or even pure wet snow, but its gonna have real trouble sticking. GFS sounding same time. I'd bet more on the NAM thermal profiles, but just showing that the GFS is even warmer. NAM sounding at 21Z tomorrow. Just to show how quickly it warms. The typical bias is colder surface, warmer aloft. Of course that makes things REALLY tricky because colder surface might mean snowier but warmer aloft might mean sleetier. Right now in the city, I'd bet on a brief bit of snow, then some sleet perhaps accumulating a light coating before switching over to rain by mid afternoon. Euro and Ukie appear colder then both the NAM and GFS. Do you have soundings for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 what are you talking about? Nothing today has changed the general idea that the precip comes in pretty heavy and the 850's across the entire area are below freezing to start the event with areas just to the north of the city staying below 0 for more of it. The other side is that there is plenty of room to wetbulb down to surface temps that will support slushy accumulations away from the beaches and UHI of nyc and further n and w I can easily see accumulations on all surfaces. The euro, gfs, ukmet, NMM, and Suny MM5 are all pretty close to bringing a more significant frozen even to the city itself. This doesnt mean accumulating snow, but I could see a prolonged period of sleet for the city after an initial burst of heavy wet snow. Further n and w I still see 2-4+ starting from the north bronx on n and w into hudson valley at CT with Danbury on North possibly getting to the magic 6 inch mark. I just don't see this being a big deal anywhere near the city. The precip arriving at mid day, east flow off the water, and rapidly retreating cold air dome really make this a tough sell for any kind of big impact here. 38-40 degrees won't allow much if any sticking, even heavy. If the snow comes in as a wall, I could see a surprise or two happening, but it's hard for me to see this as being more than just some slush up to around White Plains. Out toward Danbury, there most likely exists more potential for real accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just don't see this being a big deal anywhere near the city. The precip arriving at mid day, east flow off the water, and rapidly retreating cold air dome really make this a tough sell for any kind of big impact here. 38-40 degrees won't allow much if any sticking, even heavy. If the snow comes in as a wall, I could see a surprise or two happening, but it's hard for me to see this as being more than just some slush up to around White Plains. Out toward Danbury, there most likely exists more potential for real accums. what part of my post says "BIG DEAL"? Where did I say that there would be big impact? I am sorry you live on the beach and need a HECS to feel satisfied, but in a winter like this, getting any kind of winter weather is a win. Stop projecting. The city could easily see 3 hours of frozen precip with some slushy accumulations to start, especially away from the beaches and mid-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro and Ukie appear colder then both the NAM and GFS. Do you have soundings for them? the 12z nam run is an oulier for precip arrival time and temperatures compared to the other higher resolution models and even the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No significant changes on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Look at the wet bulb potential at 24 hours on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro and Ukie appear colder then both the NAM and GFS. Do you have soundings for them? EC isn't colder than the GFS where it counts... the BL. Its essentially identical as the GFS from 925 mb down to the surface. I can't show the sounding on AmericanWx so you'll just have to take my word for it. The EC is colder at 850 but it doesn't really matter. Here's the UKMET... its a lot like the EC sounding actually. Notice its still got a toasty BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like its all frozen in some form from just after 21 hours to just before 27 hours on the NAM for the city. Still below 0 at 850 for areas just to the n and w and ne but a there is a warm tick at 800 so probably just turning to pingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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