Dark Energy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Models often underestimate cold air, especially with a surface high in a good position. The solutions may trend colder with each run coming up and STILL be too warm the day of the event. We have to watch this one carefully. The only thing I'm not too crazy about is the sfc wind direction. If we can get any ENE or NE flow, then game on, but this E to SE flow is a killer. The position of the high and the position of the warm front will be key. The isentropic lift is there for sure. Can we just get the cold wedge from the high to save the day? I'd say if we had a better air mass ahead of this system, we'd be better off. I hate marginal events like this. So much can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 . The only thing I'm not too crazy about is the sfc wind direction. If we can get any ENE or NE flow, then game on, but this E to SE flow is a killer. Models screw up forecast wind direction all the time...plently of times I've seen a forecast between 90 degrees and 135 degrees and the day of the event it ends up being between 45 and 90 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Models screw up forecast wind direction all the time...plently of times I've seen a forecast between 90 degrees and 135 degrees and the day of the event it ends up being between 45 and 90 degrees.. Plenty of times its been 150 and those events are the best down here!! Not saying its going to happen but the trend is our freind the last few events as I saw sleet all the way to the beach here... Good sign in a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Models screw up forecast wind direction all the time...plently of times I've seen a forecast between 90 degrees and 135 degrees and the day of the event it ends up being between 45 and 90 degrees.. True, but if the warm front dominates, the "usual" sfc flow is SE or E. I would like to see the sfc high more towards the southern tip of James Bay to tell you the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 True, but if the warm front dominates, the "usual" sfc flow is SE or E. I would like to see the sfc high more towards the southern tip of James Bay to tell you the truth. The anticyclone is not in the best of spots; retreating towards the Maritime Provinces / N. Atlantic....but at this point, beggars can't be choosers...if the area picks up a couple of inches of snow Wednesday...at leat a little of the winter's ignominy is washed away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 03Z Tuesday SREF'S have 2 meter temps around 5 degrees Celsius during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 True, but if the warm front dominates, the "usual" sfc flow is SE or E. I would like to see the sfc high more towards the southern tip of James Bay to tell you the truth. Yeah, the high orientation is very poor. To get snow out of this the dependence is on dry air at the sfc wet bulbing cold enough to allow the snow/sleet to stick. The former may be hard, but the latter is always easier in milder temps. Some areas may briefly start as snow then switch to sleet, and see a bit of sleet accumulation (while the snow will have melted on contact). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 03Z Tuesday SREF'S have 2 meter temps around 5 degrees Celsius during the afternoon hours Wednesday. You should be dubbed the forum's official "Bearer of Bad News".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 6z NAM @36 looks like a photocopy of the 0z NAM @ 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If only the upper trof moving in was over DC. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 6z NAM @36 looks like a photocopy of the 0z NAM @ 42. Maybe a fraction colder @ 850 on 6z NAM @ 42 (0 c isotherm looks like it runs Bridgehampton to Danbury) where on 0z NAM it ran from Montauk to Poughkeepsie @ 48. <eyeballing it> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Winter Storm Watch for northernmost portions of OKX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 06Z RGEM total snow through hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 06Z RGEM total snow through hour 54. IIRC that is further south with snow then previous runs right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 IIRC that is further south with snow then previous runs right? Yes, probably as far south as it will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 IIRC that is further south with snow then previous runs right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yes, probably as far south as it will get. Not sure about that. As I said last night, RGEM would begin to trend colder. I still think its too far north and I still believe, like Dark Energy says, that this will be colder than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Anyone hoping for a last minute shift will be disappointed. 12z NAM is warmer then 6z and 0z by a good amount. Also the precip doesnt come in as heavy right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Anyone hoping for a last minute shift will be disappointed. 12z NAM is warmer then 6z and 0z by a good amount. Also the precip doesnt come in as heavy right away. Doesn't really make sense. The high to the north is stronger this run and the primary weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Doesn't really make sense. The high to the north is stronger this run and the primary weaker. Anyone hoping for a last minute shift will be disappointed. 12z NAM is warmer then 6z and 0z by a good amount. Also the precip doesnt come in as heavy right away. NAM is much slower with the onset of the precip. Don't by it at all, these events are never slower. The delay in precip changes the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Check out this forecast for berkshires...talk about a range. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton: The difference in seasonal snowfall totals between the CT coast and the long island coast this year will be huge...one event after another they do well and LI gets screwed by about 5 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Doesn't really make sense. The high to the north is stronger this run and the primary weaker. If the high is in a bad spot and the winds are easterly, it really doesn't make any difference as others have said. 20 mph winds off 45F waters is just killer to any snow chances. The low is also developing over NJ, which is another killer for us, and WAA rapidly overcomes any cold we might have. This one's for the well north, west and especially east crew, not us around the immediate metro. Time to just give it up and give the congrats to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If the high is in a bad spot and the winds are easterly, it really doesn't make any difference as others have said. 20 mph winds off 45F waters is just killer to any snow chances. The low is also developing over NJ, which is another killer for us, and WAA rapidly overcomes any cold we might have. This one's for the well north, west and especially east crew, not us around the immediate metro. Time to just give it up and give the congrats to Boston. Winds are from the Northeast which would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM is pretty ugly for all of CT. The warm surge is stronger this run and most of CT switches to a mix/rain a lot quicker with minimal accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If the high is in a bad spot and the winds are easterly, it really doesn't make any difference as others have said. 20 mph winds off 45F waters is just killer to any snow chances. The low is also developing over NJ, which is another killer for us, and WAA rapidly overcomes any cold we might have. This one's for the well north, west and especially east crew, not us around the immediate metro. Time to just give it up and give the congrats to Boston. This is a WAA event. Any surface low that develops in or around our area has nothing to do with the type of precip for the first slug of moisture, its all about timing. And if you are live in Manhattan or the beaches, this event was/is a long shot for accumulating snow, but you certainly dont have to go WELL NORTH to see 2 inches or more out of this, in fact, northern bronx, westerchester, extreme sw connecticut which are hardly well north will see accumulating snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Boston does very well on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I hate pointing it out because its not a useful tool outside of trends, but the eta has not waivered in its last 3-5 runs in how it brings in the precip and the extent that falls with 850's at or below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This is a WAA event. Any surface low that develops in or around our area has nothing to do with the type of precip for the first slug of moisture, its all about timing. And if you are live in Manhattan or the beaches, this event was/is a long shot for accumulating snow, but you certainly dont have to go WELL NORTH to see 2 inches or more out of this, in fact, northern bronx, westerchester, extreme sw connecticut which are hardly well north will see accumulating snow out of this. I think you have to be north of I-84 to really have a shot here, but I agree that some slushy accums are possible for the south shore of CT and the White Plains area before a quick switch to rain or junk. Anyone on Long Island and the NYC area is out of it. The real accumulations won't be until you're well east of Hartford if the NAM is to be believed. Boston might get more from the storm than even the Berkshires or Litchfield Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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