pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Agreed. But if the precip comes in as strong as the nam and the eta just showed, it will be a pretty good thump for a couple hours. Better than nothing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I hope we at least see some flakes here, as after this storm it looks like we are going to be entering yet another period of unmitigated blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Its better then nothing, in a nothing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I hope we at least see some flakes here, as after this storm it looks like we are going to be entering yet another period of unmitigated blowtorch. Look a little closer. After the big inland runner comes through we have a full latitude trough in place and a good chance of amplification. It's not an unmitigated blow torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I hope we at least see some flakes here, as after this storm it looks like we are going to be entering yet another period of unmitigated blowtorch. The blowtorch starts after day 6-7 and after the ridge rolls east. It's possible a nicely timed vort drops into the trough around day 6. Low chance, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Look a little closer. After the big inland runner comes through we have a full latitude trough in place and a good chance of amplification. It's not an unmitigated blow torch Right, +AO, no blocking, -PNA. The models are a complete joke beyond about 48-60 hours. Thus, I think it's best to fall back on good ole teleconnections and analogs a la Don S (who has been killing it this year). He's going above to much above normal in the East during the first couple weeks of March. There really isn't anything to suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The blowtorch starts after day 6-7 and after the ridge rolls east. It's possible a nicely timed vort drops into the trough around day 6. Low chance, but possible. Yea I guess we could still sneak something in the early part of next week. Otherwise it's wait unti mid March where the probability of accumulating snowfall in NYC drops considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Right, +AO, no blocking, -PNA. The models are a complete joke beyond about 48-60 hours. Thus, I think it's best to fall back on good ole teleconnections and analogs a la Don S (who has been killing it this year). He's going above to much above normal in the East during the first couple weeks of March. There really isn't anything to suggest otherwise. You can always have small windows of pna anlmplification or blocking in a hostile regime and there is plenty to support east coast troughing all be it temporarily in the 130 to 180 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You can always have small windows of pna anlmplification or blocking in a hostile regime and there is plenty to support east coast troughing all be it temporarily in the 130 to 180 time frame. Agreed. Several pieces of guidance are pointing to PNA rise and even a short, temporary block days 5-7. It's probably our last shot of anything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Greetings from Disney World, got up to 83 today with late afternoon storms. Ive been watching this closely as I fly back late Thursday. I can see the timing moving up more and more which is good for me. Enjoy the flakes, figures id get jackpotted while in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You can always have small windows of pna anlmplification or blocking in a hostile regime and there is plenty to support east coast troughing all be it temporarily in the 130 to 180 time frame. Yea you are right. I think some have alluded to this possibility with the shortening wavelengths going into March. I actually do hope we get something. Two more storms of 40F and rain would be the apex of misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 2m temps hour 45: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_0z/temp45.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You can always have small windows of pna anlmplification or blocking in a hostile regime and there is plenty to support east coast troughing all be it temporarily in the 130 to 180 time frame. Agree. I noted in the banter thread that although the pattern is unfavorable, the shortening of wavelengths in late winter makes an east coast trough possible even w/ low heights on the West Coast. It's a low chance, but slightly better than the same pattern in January due to changing wavelengths. The 12z Euro shows this well w/ a relatively narrow trough digging on the East Coast, of course prior to warming back up again. It's a warm temp pattern but this is getting into the season of cut-offs; lows like to amplify/close off a bit more than they do in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Gfs Definetely with a bump colder and faster then 18z. Bodes well for the north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Gfs Definetely with a bump colder and faster then 18z. Bodes well for the north of city. yes, its def more namish than it has been. Again, can easily see the precip moving in even quicker than even the nam and gfs are showing now. Also, the high position has clearly trended better. Look how its still centered in a favorable CAD spot even in the 42 hour range, this is important and likely a reason we are seeing colder solutions so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No surprise nam shows quicker onset of precip. Models always underestimate the approach of the waa and precip with these events. A lot of dry air in place will aid marginal surface temps and good lift through the snow growth zone should provide some areas in and around nyc metro away from the beaches a nice 3 hour event. Wouldnt be surprised to see precip start right after 12z. welcome back bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00Z Tuesday RGEM Total Snow through hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 gfs looking like the nam. great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 welcome back bud solid snow sounding here for KNYC at 42 hours with probably .2 or so liquid already fallen. Still room to wetbulb here and good vv's probably produces slushy accumulation even in the city. Regardless, flakes will be in the air and it will look and feel like winter. It may even snow till 44 hours on the GFS for the city itself. N and W does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00Z Tuesday RGEM Total Snow through hour 48. beyond the real useful RGEM time frame, it has a clear warm bias outside of 24 hours, give or take. Watch it cool considerably in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 On some of these runs (not including the RGEM), it appears a good deal of the precip is over by the time the atmosphere warms up sufficiently...probably ending as some light rain / drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 On some of these runs (not including the RGEM), it appears a good deal of the precip is over by the time the atmosphere warms up sufficiently...probably ending as some light rain / drizzle. This is especially true with the 00z gfs run and is not unusual in these types of events. Dec 08 saw this, as have several others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 On some of these runs (not including the RGEM), it appears a good deal of the precip is over by the time the atmosphere warms up sufficiently...probably ending as some light rain / drizzle. You can see it pretty clearly on the 00z NAM. Here's the radar at 48 hours which is when the H85 0c line jumps north of the city. By this point, the heaviest precipitation is over. The frames with moderate to heavy precipitation are presumably snow or snow/sleet anywhere north of Staten Island's latitude. It likely would end as some sleet and drizzle. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_0z/rad48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 UKIE 42 hours NYC. Snow sounding, surface taking account wet bulb is probably 33-35, and the ukie does not resolve the surface temps well I have noticed with these soundings. It appears to be colder at 850 than the gfs and NAM. Either way, it def. trended colder from its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well at least it'll look and feel like winter again. No accum for most of us but in this winter, snow falling is a major feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BTW, I know this is a bit OT, but the 00z GFS has the clipper Sun-Mon which many of us have referrenced. This one actually has some cold air and a better potential (albeit still low) for a bit of accumulation, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM is warmer than the Nam and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ARW and NMM look like snow to rain for the NYC area with some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sims on arw and nmm are halfway done with qpf with 850s still south of staten island at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks pretty good for a trend to more cold air entrenched, hopefully the city can at least a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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