ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I would be surprised if the 18z NAM didn't come in a hair warmer than the 12z NAM. The High pressure to the north seems less defined and weaker than the 12z NAM had it. The primary is also a hair stronger. Its definetely colder at hour 54, compared to 12z. But it could just be that the precip is slightly delayed, which delays the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Its definetely colder at hour 54, compared to 12z. But it could just be that the precip is slightly delayed, which delays the WAA. That's what it is. At 48 hours, the precip still hasn't enterd the metro area. There are 2 high pressures up north on this run where the 12z run had 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z Nam is warmer and further north. Looks like it starts off as light snow or a mix that quickly changes to rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Even with a start as frozen, no one near the coast will see any accumulation with temps around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Funny how with the last two storms, they both trended south but not enough for NYC to get snow, and now when we actually need a south trend to get snow, the models are trending north away from it... as plenty of others have said, it seems that the best forecast is to go with the scenario that is the least favorable for snow in NYC. There could still be a brief period of snow in the north/west suburbs at the start of the storm with 850mb temps below freezing, perhaps even in NYC itself, but it should quickly change over to rain with the easterly winds and warming temperatures aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Funny how with the last two storms, they both trended south but not enough for NYC to get snow, and now when we actually need a south trend to get snow, the models are trending north away from it... as plenty of others have said, it seems that the best forecast is to go with the scenario that is the least favorable for snow in NYC. There could still be a brief period of snow in the north/west suburbs at the start of the storm with 850mb temps below freezing, perhaps even in NYC itself, but it should quickly change over to rain with the easterly winds and warming temperatures aloft. It just doesn't want to snow in NYC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Upton cutting way back on accumulations even for the interior. Danbury from 3.9 to 0.7. And they say they may still be too high. WEDNESDAY`S EVENT...MODEL GUIDANCE HERE APPEARS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THAT DOES NOT FAVOR SNOW FOR THE OKX CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND WHILE PCPN STARTS AS SNOW...WARM NOSE ALOFT SUGGESTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...KEPT SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS DEW POINTS WHICH RESULTS IN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TAILORED AMOUNTS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 3 INCHES IN ORANGE COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH...BUT WANT TO AVOID FORECAST FLIP-FLOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It just doesn't want to snow in NYC this winter. Just go with the theme of the winter, warm/dry or warm/rain, I've accepted that for the past two weeks now. The final stage in a weenie's winter is acceptance and once you've done that then it's okay when each event screws you over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's not just NYC. The interior hasn't exactly cashed in and look at BWI/DC. They were supposed to get a good hit last weekend and even they ended up too far north. It just doesn't want to snow in NYC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It just doesn't want to snow in NYC this winter. We came really close with this one, but the short range trend currently taking place towards a stronger and further north primary low is not in our favor... At least someone in the area is getting the snow this time, with interior Connecticut and SE NY probably getting decent accumulations (for this winter, even 1-2 inches can be considered "decent"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We're still 2 days out. I'm not even convinced yet that Southern NE or Interior PA/NY are going to do that well. We came really close with this one, but the short range trend currently taking place towards a stronger and further north primary low is not in our favor... At least someone in the area is getting the snow this time, with interior Connecticut and SE NY probably getting decent accumulations (for this winter, even 1-2 inches can be considered "decent"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We're still 2 days out. I'm not even convinced yet that Southern NE or Interior PA/NY are going to do that well. In the worst case scenario this could still end up further north and keep most of the area with rain. The models still probably haven't settled down on a final track/intensity for the primary low, and we've seen with the last storm how much a storm can change even within the 36-48 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The worst heartbreak has to be for the MSP crew. NAM and GFS both torch them and pretty much anyone south of Duluth and into SD, and they're still trending warmer. Looks like all/mostly rain even for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Lets hope the models are not right with the cad signature. Hopefully the models go south tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 plus or minus 2 hours of snow for NYC? lol. Can we atleast get a few hours of snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 plus or minus 2 hours of snow for NYC? lol. Can we atleast get a few hours of snow ? Minus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's not just NYC. The interior hasn't exactly cashed in and look at BWI/DC. They were supposed to get a good hit last weekend and even they ended up too far north. Yeah it isnt just NYC... We are about 40% of normal up this way. Most of the northern half of the country is below normal in regards to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam is quicker with the precip and brings in heavier precip earlier. Similar to what the ETA did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM definitely got colder and quicker with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 nam would be a decent front end snowfall for the suburbs, if gfs follows than ill get excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam even gets some snow as front end into NYC. Surface temps actually drop when precip gets in. Still mid to upper 30's at the surface, so it won't accumulate outside of slush on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM definitely got colder and quicker with precip. Yes, we'll be lucky to get a coating on grassy areas and cars with the above freezing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yes, we'll be lucky to get a coating on grassy areas and cars with the above freezing surface temps. The one thing I like about the NAM is that the initial precip comes in pretty strong. The precip gets in at hour 42 and in only 3 hours, by hour 45, close to .35" has fallen. And by 48, another .25"-.35" falls. The old ETA also brings heavier precip in faster on tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The one thing I like about the NAM is that the initial precip was pretty strong. The precip gets in at hour 42 and in only 3 hours, by hour 45, close to .35" has fallen. And by 48, another .25"-.35" falls. The old ETA also brings heavier precip in faster on tonight's run. It will be a heavy wet snow with huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We have had a couple sleet events at the coast that were forecasted to be all rain. So going with the trend i think everyone sees frozen at the start even right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam weenie snow maps have 2"-3" for NYC, northern Queens and Northern Brooklyn. 1"-2" for LI and the rest of NYC. 3"-4" for SWCT. NWNJ is the jackpot with 6"-9". Hudson Valley and into th Catskills also do well. Not that they will be right, but 18z snow maps showed zero for The NYC metro and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We have had a couple sleet events at the coast that were forecasted to be all rain. So going with the trend i think everyone sees frozen at the start even right on the coast. Sounds like a fair bet, and even the NYC zone forecast calls for snow at the start. But with SE winds, you can pretty much forget that lasting long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No surprise nam shows quicker onset of precip. Models always underestimate the approach of the waa and precip with these events. A lot of dry air in place will aid marginal surface temps and good lift through the snow growth zone should provide some areas in and around nyc metro away from the beaches a nice 3 hour event. Wouldnt be surprised to see precip start right after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sounds like a fair bet, and even the NYC zone forecast calls for snow at the start. But with SE winds, you can pretty much forget that lasting long. Agreed. But if the precip comes in as strong as the nam and the eta just showed, it will be a pretty good thump for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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