famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NYC: NAM is frozen through hour 57 right up to the 975 level. The only non frozen layer, which is very shallow, is the surface level which is 36 degrees. NAM is even a slop/slush type storm for NYC up until hour 58-59, with .45" of total precip through hour 60. 54 should be snow: However, by 57 the freezing level is up to 500 meters. Assuming that's accurate (i.e. taking it completely verbatim and not accounting for either bad wind direction (too east instead of northeast) or dynamics), its either a rain/snow mix, or just rain: And by 60 there's nothing else it could be but rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Show you how things could change right before an event, Minneapolis, which was looking like mostly snow, may see mostly rain from this event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS looks like it's coming in fairly warm. I'm about ready to stick a fork in this one (not like I really believed in the threat anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS looks like a thump of snow to light rain and lingering drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS looks like it's coming in fairly warm. I'm about ready to stick a fork in this one (not like I really believed in the threat anyway). The primary cutting through the Lakes will in 9/10 times, torch the mid levels more than progged. So if there's anything modelled incorrectly right now, I think it would be that 850's are a bit too cool. We might have been talking an ice event if high pressure was stronger/further south in Canada, or if we actually had some decent cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is so warm for round 2, that there are precip type issues to the border of Vermont/NH. Round 1 is similar to NAM. A touch warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is so warm for round 2, that there are precip type issues to the border of Vermont/NH. Round 1 is similar to NAM. A touch warmer. Yes pretty similar to the NAM. Looks like we get Round 1 and Round 1 only. If the primary trends weaker we may get something else, but highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Last event was a surprise for those further north, maybe more surprises for areas a bit further south this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The models are coming into better agreement , any front end snow should be short lived , the primary looks stronger and more north as we are getting closer ( we are only 48 hrs out ) , dont expect alot to changea and most of the precip here is a cold rain and drizzle . Any secondary development doesnt appear to be south enough or strong enough to save us. This is becoming much to do about nothing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well I said yesterday these storms tend to trend further north as we get closer, classic La Nina trend so no surprise there. Probably won't even see a flake with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The models are coming into better agreement , any front end snow should be short lived , the primary looks stronger and more north as we are getting closer ( we are only 48 hrs out ) , dont expect alot to changea and most of the precip here is a cold rain and drizzle . Any secondary development doesnt appear to be south enough or strong enough to save us. This is becoming much to do about nothing . Maybe I'm bored but part of me actually enjoys tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Maybe I'm bored but part of me actually enjoys tracking this. Chance of a inch at ttn? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Maybe I'm bored but part of me actually enjoys tracking this. I did too this weekend after a couple EURO runs , got in closer and as they backed off the trend annoyed me . Marginal set up - awful pattern - dismal winter Only hope was for secondary to take over earlier . CAD would have saved the day Model loves the primary , Shredded my interest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I did too this weekend after a couple EURO runs , got in closer and as they backed off the trend annoyed me . Marginal set up - awful pattern - dismal winter Only hope was for secondary to take over earlier . CAD would have saved the day Model loves the primary , Shredded my interest . When the pattern supports a particular outcome, it's far more likely than not to occur. There are exceptions to every rule, but in general it's the case. In this case, the pattern strongly favors a wet and dreary outcome here and snow to the north, over New England and NY State. Models are just tools, not meant to be taken verbatim. You can't just look at the 850 temps and QPF printout-you have to look at the underlying features beyond it, and history of similar outcomes. It was easy to shoot this apart days ago when the Euro showed a wrapped up bomb just offshore, but with no block, trough in the west and not much cold air. I LOL'ed at it and as we all see now, it's toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Chance of a inch at ttn? Please I never expected more than a coating, but there's a fine line between a coating and an inch plus, so that necessitates my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 looking like 2-3 inches of snow nw changing to light zr/rain. from past events like this 850s usually warm faster but surface temps stay colder longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I never expected more than a coating, but there's a fine line between a coating and an inch plus, so that necessitates my attention. On the bright side you'll be done with this year's map and storm archive in 10 minutes flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 When the pattern supports a particular outcome, it's far more likely than not to occur. There are exceptions to every rule, but in general it's the case. In this case, the pattern strongly favors a wet and dreary outcome here and snow to the north, over New England and NY State. Models are just tools, not meant to be taken verbatim. You can't just look at the 850 temps and QPF printout-you have to look at the underlying features beyond it, and history of similar outcomes. It was easy to shoot this apart days ago when the Euro showed a wrapped up bomb just offshore, but with no block, trough in the west and not much cold air. I LOL'ed at it and as we all see now, it's toast. My argument is when your primary is progged the stronger of the 2 lows and it running into the lake , JUST 48 HRS IN its game set match . I agree last week the set up was wrong , however I couldnt dismiss the Euro this wknd when it popped a center off the Delmarva , but when it backed off It lost me .I tend to agree with you on the outcome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 When the pattern supports a particular outcome, it's far more likely than not to occur. There are exceptions to every rule, but in general it's the case. In this case, the pattern strongly favors a wet and dreary outcome here and snow to the north, over New England and NY State. Models are just tools, not meant to be taken verbatim. You can't just look at the 850 temps and QPF printout-you have to look at the underlying features beyond it, and history of similar outcomes. It was easy to shoot this apart days ago when the Euro showed a wrapped up bomb just offshore, but with no block, trough in the west and not much cold air. I LOL'ed at it and as we all see now, it's toast. Good post. We can sometimes pull off a snow event in a terrible pattern, but most of the time, the odds are strongly against it. The story has always been different for New England as we've seen past synoptic set-ups similar to the current one that produce up there. It's much easier for C/N New England to achieve decent snows in a garbage pattern -- their snowfall is more concerned with precipitation rather than temps. Dry winters tend to be poor while wet periods tend to be snowy for N/C NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 New EC has 40-42F sfc temps at NYC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Warmer and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 New EC has 40-42F sfc temps at NYC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Warmer and warmer. Its also warmer at the 850 level. The euro is actually a little warmer then even the GFS for our area. So its clear, the GFS handled this storm the best so far. In this winter, its basically pick the model that has no snow and that's the one the other models will cave to. Whether it's snow in southern Virginia/NC last week or snow in DC 2 weeks ago, makes no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 that will do it-game over. You get some front end frozen. NYC gets nothing but maybe some mangled flakes for an hour or 2, mixed in with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 A good rule of thumb IMO is to side with the model that makes the most sense given the synoptic pattern at D 3-5. GFS, even though it was basically on its own, looked most reasonable considering the players on the field. I thought the Euro's secondary off Maryland was BS and sure enough it now has the same low developing east of NJ. So yes - I forget who said in this thread, but in a non snowy winter/pattern, it is fair to say the model showing the least snow will generally be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 There's a common pattern in modelology, some of you know about it...where about a week out the models have a good idea, then they get confused in the 3-5 day period, only to correct themselves within 72 hours. Probably has something to do with features over the Pacific. When things started heading south over the weekend, this modelology pattern came to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 There's a common pattern in modelology, some of you know about it...where about a week out the models have a good idea, then they get confused in the 3-5 day period, only to correct themselves within 72 hours. Probably has something to do with features over the Pacific. When things started heading south over the weekend, this modelology pattern came to mind. To be fair, the GFS was not all that good from 7 days out. It did show a rain storm, but for a while it drove temperatures well into the 50s. That is obviously not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hopefully, for us, the slightly colder NAM can verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not bad.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That was a disappointing set of model runs with 00z and 12z. It seems like the models completely gave up on the snow idea. It fits in with the overall theme of this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Pretty much no differences with the 12z NAM at 36 hours with the 18z NAM at 30 hours. 850s are a hair cooler in NJ, but I doubt that equates to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I would be surprised if the 18z NAM didn't come in a hair warmer than the 12z NAM. The High pressure to the north seems less defined and weaker than the 12z NAM had it. The primary is also a hair stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.