CooL Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro is much warmer thru 66 and weaker with the confluence. So yeah, this looks like mostly if not all rain for nyc. No biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 EURO is warmer through 72. Also seems like less moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 unorganized mess on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going to be some week in Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 EC warmed up both at the surface and aloft. Surface was 36-38, now its 38-40. EC BL isn't usually THAT far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Think the HPC chances for 4" plus of snow in NYC for Day 3 are a wee bit too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 EC warmed up both at the surface and aloft. Surface was 36-38, now its 38-40. EC BL isn't usually THAT far off. If the Euro gets schooled by the GFS once again, I am never going to take the Euro seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 unorganized mess on the euro I wouldn't still give up on 1-3 inches at the start of the storm but time is running out and the Euro made a step towards the GFS. We still have today and tomorrow's runs to figure out what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If the Euro gets schooled by the GFS once again, I am never going to take the Euro seriously. That's not really fair. The EC is generally better, but not by THAT much, so just because the EC shows something doesn't mean its definitely right. It just means, that on average, its a *bit* more likely to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's not really fair. The EC is generally better, but not by THAT much, so just because the EC shows something doesn't mean its definitely right. It just means, that on average, its a *bit* more likely to be right. I know the Euro is better than the GFS. For some reason, the GFS has been better this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I know the Euro is better than the GFS. For some reason, the GFS has been better this winter. Really, this isn't the case. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Really, this isn't the case. http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ If the GFS were as good as advertised we would have had mid 60's just this past Friday in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I know the Euro is better than the GFS. For some reason, the GFS has been better this winter. You forgetting about last weeks mid atlantic storm? The euro is overall a more superior model. I know this should be banter, but I had to respond to this .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I continue to have the idea that this is maybe a brief mix to rain for NYC metro, and mostly snow probably well northeast, like Danbury on NE. The high looks too weak to really drive cold air in and keep it there, and the position/track of the low looks unfavorable still. Besides, with a too strong high and confluence, we risk the precip drying out until the warm air arrives. The secondary also looks like it'll pop too far N, despite any recent swings/trends. I'd much, much rather be around Boston for this than here. Again, typical Nina gradient pattern/storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Craig Allen just said cold rain for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Cold rain/wet snow that doesn't stick..is there really any difference? Looking at wet snowflakes when its 38 degrees is just depressing. Craig Allen just said cold rain for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The models might be having trouble with the CAD. The 12z runs should be interesting. The models alwats struggle when it comes to CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's not really fair. The EC is generally better, but not by THAT much, so just because the EC shows something doesn't mean its definitely right. It just means, that on average, its a *bit* more likely to be right. Agree. Also, the GFS solution made more sense given the terrible pattern, and sure enough the Euro has basically caved. This is not a good snow set-up for the NYC metro (immediate) area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Agree. Also, the GFS solution made more sense given the terrible pattern, and sure enough the Euro has basically caved. This is not a good snow set-up for the NYC metro (immediate) area. It was 1 model run. Lets wait for today's guidance to see if it "caved" or not. I wouldnt even forecast anything until tomorrow's model guidance. But I agree, that the pattern supports rain over snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like a few inches at the beginning and if that ULL can move just a bit further south could be another few inches at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 For who? the city/coastal locations? very doubtful Looks like a few inches at the beginning and if that ULL can move just a bit further south could be another few inches at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nam is warm and north. Its colder then 6z. Through hour 57, its a decent run for north and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 For who? the city/coastal locations? very doubtful For places North and northwest of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z NAM still gives NW areas 6"+.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Decent CAD on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Decent CAD on the nam. More qpf as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Decent CAD on the nam. It's still almost all rain for the city and coast, and eventually goes to rain all the way through CT, although they likely get a better front end snow event. You don't have a real prolonged snow event until you're up to I-90. That's looking like a good area for heavier snow accums right now. Again, typical of this pattern and Ninas in general. Classic N-S gradient storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The NAM looks colder because its slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 By my eye it looks like the 12z NAM gives between .2 and .4 inches frozen liquid equivalent across the northern half of NYC metro with the initial overrunning. Further south and east of, say, the bronx, it appears boundary layer temps support mainly rain. The 2nd round of organized precip is still up in the air. This NAM run looks good for C and SNE, but previous runs and ensembles occasionally targeted SENY, NEPA, and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NYC: NAM is frozen through hour 57 right up to the 975 level. The only non frozen layer, which is very shallow, is the surface level which is 36 degrees. NAM is even a slop/slush type storm for NYC up until hour 58-59, with .45" of total precip through hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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