CooL Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Pretty cool we are talking about snow again..A good amount of gfs ensembles have a cold and juicy first batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Drag: THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SNOW WILL BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR A A COUPLE OF HOURS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY IN THE 8AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME...ESP E PA AND NJ. THAT COULD INCLUDE PHL YOU'LL NOTE OUR FCST HAS A LOT OF MIXED PHASE WORDING. IN TIME THIS WILL BECOME MANAGED BETTER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT ON PTYPE. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS BIASED THIS FCST WARM. WE COOLED IT A BIT MORE THAN THE HPC GUIDANCE AND MUCH MORE THAN 12Z GFS TEMP GUIDANCE. HOW MUCH ICE CAN OCCUR WED AFTN/EVE?...PROBABLY VERY LITTLE EXCEPT IN FORESTED UPSLOPE REGIONS. A MORE EXTENSIVE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY WIND FORCED LIFT FROM THE INCREASING ENE BL WIND. AGAIN...UPSLOPE REGIONS COOL EASIER. ALSO....BECAUSE OF PROBABLE COLD HIGH PRES LOCKED IN OVER SE QUEBEC...THERE WILL BE A NICE RESOURCE OF BELOW FREEZING BL AIR SEEPING SWWD IN THE NE BL FLOW. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY MIDWEST SHORT WAVE ALONG /COOLING 500MB HEIGHTS/ WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY ATLC COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A PERIOD OF SEEDING FROM PROBABLE CIRRUS ASSTD WITH A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE OF MID LVL LIFT SHOULD CHANGE ANY ICE BACK TO SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY OVER NE PA AND NNJ. SNOW GROWTH...ATTM MODELED SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 1 INCH/HR LOOKS VERY GOOD WITH IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEAR 525 MB WITH ONSET OF THE EVENT WED MORNING AND OMEGA RANGING FROM 12 TO 22 MB/SEC DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. SO...WE ALL WANT AN ACCURATE DETERMINISTIC FCST AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE...LETS LEAVE IT WIDE OPEN ON PTYPE AMTS BUT .50 TO 1 INCH FROZEN WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN NW NJ/NE PA ARE PROBABLE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE HEALTHY DOSES OF QPF...BUT PLACE IT DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THEIR TRACKING. OUR FCST GRIDS HAVE 1 TO 4 INCHES THRU 00Z THU IN THE NW PTN OF OUR FA. I AM VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...THIS MAY BE TOO LIGHT. LOW PROB 1 OR 2 INCHES EVEN DOWN TO NEAR PHL. When I first got interested in long range forecasting back in the late 90's, I would always read his extended forecast discussions when he was at Boston. He used to do great 6-10 day pattern outlooks that were the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 When I first got interested in long range forecasting back in the late 90's, I would always read his extended forecast discussions when he was at Boston. He used to do great 6-10 day pattern outlooks that were the best around. Yeah I smile when I read his stuff...they have a all star line up at mt holly...plus the fact he likes this event...im happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Pretty cool we are talking about snow again..A good amount of gfs ensembles have a cold and juicy first batch They seemed to have ticked cooler from the 12z GEFS, but they're still warmer than the ECMWF/GGEM with the wave of precipitation. Nice improvements though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hey guys I made a blog with a 1st Guess Forecast Map (not with amounts) if you would like to read... http://aeroweather.org/2012/02/26/1st-guess-forecast-map-wednesday-thursday-this-week-ice-possible/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z GFS verbatim looks too warm at the surface for PHL, NYC, EWR, TTN, BLM per soundings. Probably 34-35F, and timing is poor. MMU and HPN NW look good for accum per the GFS, but it'll chane anyway as we're still 70-80 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 00z nam is a tad cooler and a hair south of 18z through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 nam is a good bit colder and farther south... looks like snow through 69 hrs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 At 18Z the 850 0 c line was north of I80 @ hour 75 now at hour 69 0z the 850 0 deg line is just south of staten island. So at least thru 69 hours it is colder for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We all know that the NAM is just one model of the day. It shows 1-2" of snow on the ground in NYC at 72 hours with the rain snow line looking very close. We also know this will be a complicated forecast when it comes to forecasting a rain snow line across NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM clown maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If the EURO holds ground and the NAM continues to stay on pace or trend even colder, this will probably be a snow/ice scenario for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM clown maps... I think it's safe to say the ski resorts that have been hurting all winter in the Poconos, Catskills, and NW NJ will finally get a nice late season snow dump. Conditions will go from wet/granular to packed powder after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think it's safe to say the ski resorts that have been hurting all winter in the Poconos, Catskills, and NW NJ will finally get a nice late season snow dump. Conditions will go from wet/granular to packed powder after this one. Looks like we will be making up for lost time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Gfs would not be favorable. Precip is too light for such a marginal setup. Good news is that the gfs has been extremely bad this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is mainly rain. Some freezing rain in the beginning. Albany on North see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's hilarious that the models can't agree on a storm. GFS is by itself so I wouldn't worry right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like we will be making up for lost time.. Don't get ahead here, this is far from a great setup with an undetermined outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 freezing rain? Maybe for some inland sections after the warm nose moves in, but highly doubtful for most locations GFS is mainly rain. Some freezing rain in the beginning. Albany on North see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS quite a bit worse w/ the H5 closed low further NE and stronger than 18z. Not surprising if it's correct as the pattern would argue more for a GFS-like solution than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS quite a bit worse w/ the H5 closed low further NE and stronger than 18z. Not surprising if it's correct as the pattern would argue more for a GFS-like solution than the Euro. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0z ukie has the 850 line south of LI at hour 72, while the gfs has it Way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GGEM is warmer than the 12z run. Looks like mostly rain, based off the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GGEM is warmer than the 12z run. Looks like mostly rain, based off the precip type. I hope the ECMWF doesn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope the ECMWF doesn't do that. I hope not. Seeing the Ukie further south is great. Hopefully the Euro stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GGEM is warmer than the 12z run. Looks like mostly rain, based off the precip type. do u have a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 do u have a link to that? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Don't get ahead here, this is far from a great setup with an undetermined outcome When I said WE I meant my location ( 60 miles NW of NYC).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope not. Seeing the Ukie further south is great. Hopefully the Euro stays put. UKMET looks kind of warm as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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