earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro ensembles trended way south from last night...pretty similar to the OP...maybe a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro ensembles trended way south from last night...pretty similar to the OP...maybe a hair north. The mean was really warm for the area on the 0z run. Also, the low was just south of NYC. This was the 0z run Now this is the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro ensembles trended way south from last night...pretty similar to the OP...maybe a hair north. talk about an improvement earthlight. looks like were gonna have some excitement the next few days. the european/globals consistently have been showing the more southern and colder track so we gotta keep an eye on the south and east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The mean was really warm for the area on the 0z run. Also, the low was just south of NYC. This was the 0z run Now this is the 12z run The high is a touch to the southeast, which is not necessarily good...but the big difference is the strength in the primary in the lakes. If we can get that low to die out and strengthen the secondary, things could get interesting. The 0z mean looks more like a GLC with a weak coastal, while the 12z is a coastal with a weak GLC. That will make all the difference in a borderline situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS looks like it's trending with the rest of the models on the Low in the Plains being weaker. At hour 60 the low is 996 mb, wheras on the 12z GFS the low was 992 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z gfs has 850 south of acy....surface just nw of city...hr 69....preciep in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The mean was really warm for the area on the 0z run. Also, the low was just south of NYC. This was the 0z run Now this is the 12z run You are comparing two 96 hour maps from different starting times...you'd have to compare 96h from 00z to 84h at 12z...12z is south of 00z but not as much as that comparison would imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Wow hr 72...mod snow city....850 south of phl.....surface just nw of city... .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hr 75 another. 25 falls...850 to earthlights house... Hr 78 light rain or drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Wow hr 72...mod snow city....850 south of phl.....surface just nw of city... .25+ Yes, this is MUCH colder than the 12z GFS, with the 850s being about 40-50 miles to the SW compared to 12z. The high being in a better position, and the primary low being weaker by 4+mb in the earlier frames (NCEP) helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS still develops the 2nd low too late for the area. Nice front end thump though. The 2nd low on the gfs is more southeast on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The high's position means that we'll have a R/S line that works from SW to NE. Looks like a 3-6 dump on the front end for places north and east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18 Z on right Primary a tick south 1 mb weaker High in SE Canada more W but a mb weaker as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hr 75 another. 25 falls...850 to earthlights house... Hr 78 light rain or drizzle Keep in mind that hour 75 is where the 850 mb 0 C line is at that particular frame, There is probably moderate/heavy precipitation that falls before the 0C line makes it to Mt. Earthlight. There is less than 0.1" of QPF after the 850s become too warm to support snow. It is still warmer than the ECMWF, but it is much colder than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 lol.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 3-6" N of 287 and W of 95 on the GFS. NW NJ goes to town...major snowstorm for them if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 3-6" N of 287 and W of 95 on the GFS. NW NJ goes to town...major snowstorm for them if the GFS is correct. N of 287 and W of 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 N of 287 and W of 95? Lol typo...N of 78 and W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Lol typo...N of 78 and W of 95. I think you mean N of I-78 and NW of I-287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I think you mean N of I-78 and W of I-287 Being west of 287 does not make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Being west of 287 does not make sense Northwest of I-287 is what I meant, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Being west of 287 does not make sense 287 is a partial beltway, so saying "south of 287, west of 287, north of 287" all make "some" sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 287 is a partial beltway, so saying "south of 287, west of 287, north of 287" all make "some" sense. I meant as in this setup verbatim being north of said highway would be better then west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z runs for ISP... GFS looks to start as snow around noon but changes to rain by 21 UTC Wednesday. The NAM has all snow from 17z Wednesday ( the BUFKIT profiles show the profile wet-bulbing and dropping with a more NE wind at the ground), and changes over to rain by 22 UTC Wednesday. In that time frame, about 0.3 to 0.4 of liquid falls on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Drag: THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SNOW WILL BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR A A COUPLE OF HOURS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY IN THE 8AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME...ESP E PA AND NJ. THAT COULD INCLUDE PHL YOU'LL NOTE OUR FCST HAS A LOT OF MIXED PHASE WORDING. IN TIME THIS WILL BECOME MANAGED BETTER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT ON PTYPE. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS BIASED THIS FCST WARM. WE COOLED IT A BIT MORE THAN THE HPC GUIDANCE AND MUCH MORE THAN 12Z GFS TEMP GUIDANCE. HOW MUCH ICE CAN OCCUR WED AFTN/EVE?...PROBABLY VERY LITTLE EXCEPT IN FORESTED UPSLOPE REGIONS. A MORE EXTENSIVE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY WIND FORCED LIFT FROM THE INCREASING ENE BL WIND. AGAIN...UPSLOPE REGIONS COOL EASIER. ALSO....BECAUSE OF PROBABLE COLD HIGH PRES LOCKED IN OVER SE QUEBEC...THERE WILL BE A NICE RESOURCE OF BELOW FREEZING BL AIR SEEPING SWWD IN THE NE BL FLOW. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY MIDWEST SHORT WAVE ALONG /COOLING 500MB HEIGHTS/ WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY ATLC COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A PERIOD OF SEEDING FROM PROBABLE CIRRUS ASSTD WITH A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE OF MID LVL LIFT SHOULD CHANGE ANY ICE BACK TO SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY OVER NE PA AND NNJ. SNOW GROWTH...ATTM MODELED SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 1 INCH/HR LOOKS VERY GOOD WITH IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEAR 525 MB WITH ONSET OF THE EVENT WED MORNING AND OMEGA RANGING FROM 12 TO 22 MB/SEC DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. SO...WE ALL WANT AN ACCURATE DETERMINISTIC FCST AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE...LETS LEAVE IT WIDE OPEN ON PTYPE AMTS BUT .50 TO 1 INCH FROZEN WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN NW NJ/NE PA ARE PROBABLE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE HEALTHY DOSES OF QPF...BUT PLACE IT DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THEIR TRACKING. OUR FCST GRIDS HAVE 1 TO 4 INCHES THRU 00Z THU IN THE NW PTN OF OUR FA. I AM VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...THIS MAY BE TOO LIGHT. LOW PROB 1 OR 2 INCHES EVEN DOWN TO NEAR PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So what happened the past couple of days? The gfs say maybe front end snow? It will probably trend north though given it's 72 hours out and La Ninas tend to have that effect on storms. Highs of 44 and 43 forecast on Wed and Thurs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So what happened the past couple of days? The gfs say maybe front end snow? It will probably trend north though given it's 72 hours out and La Ninas tend to have that effect on storms. The trend today has been the opposite, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So what happened the past couple of days? The gfs say maybe front end snow? It will probably trend north though given it's 72 hours out and La Ninas tend to have that effect on storms. The GFS is finally catching on to the south trend. Euro, Ukie and GGEM are further south and east than the GFS. GEFS also shifted a little southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS is finally catching on to the south trend. Euro, Ukie and GGEM are further south and east than the GFS. GEFS also shifted a little southeast. No kidding. The other models are even further south? How are they looking for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 No kidding. The other models are even further south? How are they looking for us? Well this is the 12z GGEM accumulated snowfall for example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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