Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Snow for NYC? Highly doubt it. More like a mix to rain later... NYC seems to be right on or above the freezing mark on the models. I believe the GFS is correct with this storm thus far. Is that u dale jr? Good luck in the race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junbug Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Is that u dale jr? Good luck in the race Yea sure thanks for the compliment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Lol at the Gfs being correct. When the Gfs is completely on its own, which it is right now, its always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Lol at the Gfs being correct. When the Gfs is completely on its own, which it is right now, its always wrong. Problem is the GFS is not on its own... The GGEM is essentially like the GFS with one difference being the sensible weather at the surface.. 96 hrs of the GFS 96 hrs of the GGEM They are essentially the same location with the secondary .. The UKMET and the ECM are further south... One problem is while the ECM operational has been further south its ensemble means are further northeast (such as last night 00z run) .. The other problem is that the air mass out ahead of this is not cold to begin with.. Monday looks like a 55 + day and tuesday looks like the upper 40s... depending on how fast cloud cover occurs on tuesday evening ..it can slow down the drop of any temperatures (no radiational cooling) and then when precip arrives you are stuck with temperatures in the upper 30s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Lol at the Gfs being correct. When the Gfs is completely on its own, which it is right now, its always wrong. The GFS has really been struggling lately. It had the suppressed storm over a week ago cutting through our area. This week it tried to blast the warm front through on Friday. That model needs a major tune up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Problem is the GFS is not on its own... The GGEM is essentially like the GFS with one difference being the sensible weather at the surface.. 96 hrs of the GFS 96 hrs of the GGEM They are essentially the same location with the secondary .. The position of the secondary isn't everything to this storm. They are vastly different with the intensity of the High Pressure up north, which is why the GGEM gives the area several inches of snow, wheras the GFS gives the area pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here's why the ECMWF energy transfer seems weird to me. For comparison, below are the maps for December 19th, 2008 SWF event. Note the entire southern boundary of Canada covered in strong sfc highs, the one over Quebec is positioned better than this week's storm. Additionally, the primary low is going through Ohio, and the energy transfer to the secondary occurs near the MD coast. Keep in mind this storm was C-2" then rain for those SW of NYC, and that's w/ more sfc high pressure and further south primary track. The ECMWF for Wednesday. High pressure not as favorably placed, there's less HP and low level col in general across the northern tier, the primary is going through Michigan, which makes the MD coast low very suspect. Unless the primary low position is wrong, a retreating high of the progged magnitude (around 1028-30 mb) is not strong enough IMO to force the secondary way down to the mid atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here's why the ECMWF energy transfer seems weird to me. For comparison, below are the maps for December 19th, 2008 SWF event. Note the entire southern boundary of Canada covered in strong sfc highs, the one over Quebec is positioned better than this week's storm. Additionally, the primary low is going through Ohio, and the energy transfer to the secondary occurs near the MD coast. Keep in mind this storm was C-2" then rain for those SW of NYC, and that's w/ more sfc high pressure and further south primary track. That storm was a disgusting mixed bag for my area in C NJ. I got 3" and then a heavy glaze of ice. IMO, it's too early to try and compare this storm to past storms, considering that the models are still trending with this storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That storm was a disgusting mixed bag for my area in C NJ. I got 3" and then a heavy glaze of ice. IMO, it's too early to try and compare this storm to past storms, considering that the models are still trending with this storm system. Disagree, it's not too early, and there's not going to be enough trending to change the synoptic set-up significantly, which is a less favorable one than Dec 2008. For one thing - there's much less cold air, and that's a necessity for frozen precip. The nice thing about Dec 19th 2008 was the lower boundary layer was already fairly chilly prior to the arrival of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Disagree, it's not too early, and there's not going to be enough trending to change the synoptic set-up significantly, which is a less favorable one than Dec 2008. For one thing - there's much less cold air, and that's a necessity for frozen precip. The nice thing about Dec 19th 2008 was the lower boundary layer was already fairly chilly prior to the arrival of the storm. Let's see what happens with the models over the next couple of days with this storm. The high placement and intensity are different on all of the models. That is why it is too early to compare, since the location and intensity of that high is crucial for the p-type with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 euro and ggem were a deadly combo for the last storm, and the gfs was flat out embarrassing. I think anyone at nyc's latitude is definitely in the game for some late season flakes. I really don't see the transfer occurring anymore south so areas south and west might not be so lucky with the limited cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I agree with Isotherm, the primary got further north on the EC while the secondary forms further south... which is kinda weird. Anyway, the EC is supposed to be able to handle CAD better but it has a pretty good easterly fetch at the surface across NJ which explains the torchy BL. Maybe its overdone more than its typical 2F, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So any model that shows snow for NYC is wrong, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 So any model that shows snow for NYC is wrong, got it. If that is what you are getting from the above discussion, you should go back and re-read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I agree with Isotherm, the primary got further north on the EC while the secondary forms further south... which is kinda weird. Anyway, the EC is supposed to be able to handle CAD better but it has a pretty good easterly fetch at the surface across NJ which explains the torchy BL. Maybe its overdone more than its typical 2F, but we'll see. People questioned the mysterious "south and east" jump the euro showed with the last storm and it turned out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 People questioned the mysterious "south and east" jump the euro showed with the last storm and it turned out to be right. Much different. See below, but the secondary didn't really get going (i.e., get stronger than the primary) til it was near Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Much different. See below, but the secondary didn't really get going (i.e., get stronger than the primary) til it was near Maine. Interesting, the euro has a much weaker primary into Michigan.. but yeah, if that happens, we can kiss our snow chances goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z nam starts off as frozen for city...but goes over to rain...nw nj and hudson valley do well....relative in this winter....its also real wet with waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 18z NAM took a pretty noticeable jump S and E with the positioning of the primary low out west, and it is also weaker with the primary. Heavy precipitation is in the area at hour 72. 850s are by KTTN and are a tick cooler than the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Through 81 city west close to inch+...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The NAM really thumps hard just west of the city...stormvista snowfall maps show 3"+ of snow and sleet basically from Union and Essex Counties in NJ on north and west..away from the city. Sussex, Passaic, NW bergen, Rockland, Orange, CT....all 6 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Through 81 city west close to inch+...... Yeah, pretty wet run for the area with mostly rain in the city, so the NAM also held with its warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here's why the ECMWF energy transfer seems weird to me. For comparison, below are the maps for December 19th, 2008 SWF event. Note the entire southern boundary of Canada covered in strong sfc highs, the one over Quebec is positioned better than this week's storm. Additionally, the primary low is going through Ohio, and the energy transfer to the secondary occurs near the MD coast. Keep in mind this storm was C-2" then rain for those SW of NYC, and that's w/ more sfc high pressure and further south primary track. The ECMWF for Wednesday. High pressure not as favorably placed, there's less HP and low level col in general across the northern tier, the primary is going through Michigan, which makes the MD coast low very suspect. Unless the primary low position is wrong, a retreating high of the progged magnitude (around 1028-30 mb) is not strong enough IMO to force the secondary way down to the mid atlantic coast. You make a very good point on technical met stuff...but for people N/W of NYC, that storm was great. I got 8" here..all snow, sat at 30" the entire storm, so it was borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The NAM really thumps hard just west of the city...stormvista snowfall maps show 3"+ of snow and sleet basically from Union and Essex Counties in NJ on north and west..away from the city. Sussex, Passaic, NW bergen, Rockland, Orange, CT....all 6 inches or more. Yeah widespread 4-6 north of the city. Thing we need to keep an eye on is the dryslot that inevitably appears as the energy transfers to the coast. I can recall times where we were supposed to turn over to rain, but the coastal transition was rough and nothing but drizzle fell before temps crashed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comet1510 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Are the poconos in on this one or will the warm air turn any snow over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean is similiar to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Heard on the SNE thread that the 15z SREFs are pretty spread out, FWIW. Some are even further south than the ECMWF, while others look like the NAM. Quite a bit of a spread, but it can be expected with the long range SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Heard on the SNE thread that the 15z SREFs are pretty spread out, FWIW. Some are even further south than the ECMWF, while others look like the NAM. Quite a bit of a spread, but it can be expected with the long range SREFs. The SREFs aren't very useful this far out in many cases. I usually don't take the SREF too seriously until at least the short-medium range, and even so the SREF still isn't too good as with the 2/11 and 2/18 storms it wasn't consistent with its solutions in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The SREFs aren't very useful this far out in many cases. I usually don't take the SREF too seriously until at least the short-medium range, and even so the SREF still isn't too good as with the 2/11 and 2/18 storms it wasn't consistent with its solutions in the short range. Agreed, I just thought it was interesting that they are so spread out for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Agreed, I just thought it was interesting that they are so spread out for this storm. In their longer range, it's not that unusual for the SREFs to be spread out this much, it's happened enough times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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