earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's definitely not the prettiest way to get snow...but if you're 10 miles away from the beaches this is a very good run..a nice hit for Northern NJ...Southeast NY...CT...and NYC (boundary layer issues to be determined there as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Based on the position of the surface high, and how far west the primary is, I'd be surprised if the winds weren't northerly. However, the timing of the precip allows a couple hours of some sunlight before the heavy precip, which probably partially explains the warm BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't be surprised to see places like central Jersey in the game as we approach Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This storm keeps coming south. So let's not worry about BL temps yet for the beach areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't be surprised to see places like central Jersey in the game as we approach Wednesday. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Verbatim probably a couple of inches of snow for most of the area....but I mean really in this winter that would be breaking news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 And where it does snow, some of it may occur outside of Meteorological Winter which would be fitting with the way things have gone. Verbatim probably a couple of inches of snow for most of the area....but I mean really in this winter that would be breaking news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't be surprised to see places like central Jersey in the game as we approach Wednesday. I hope..lol ray is good with his sounding info for the euro...be interesting what he has to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 And where it does snow, some of it may occur outside of Meteorological Winter which would be fitting with the way things have gone. We might as well throw in a 4-6" event in April to top off this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Soundings show a pretty good easterly wind at the surface... explaining the warm BL. Assuming that's correct, not great for NYC proper. NYC 6-hourly raw gridded temps that I'm coming up with: Wed 12Z: 36 Wed 18Z: 38 Thu 0Z: 36 Thu 6Z: 37 Thu 12Z: 36 Thu 18Z: 37 Fri 0Z: 37 Fri 6Z: 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here's the NYC 850 temps and 6-hour QPF (haven't got the full soundings just yet): Wed 12Z: -2.5C 0.00 Wed 18Z: -4.8C 0.06 Thu 0Z: -2.6C 0.42 Thu 6Z: -1.6C 0.08 Thu 12Z: -2.1C 0.23 Thu 18Z: -0.5C 0.10 Fri 0Z: -0.9C 0.04 Fri 6Z: -0.2C 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Anyway, I'd chop 2F off the surface temps but that's still a bit on the warm side, Maybe if it thumps 18Z Wed-0Z Thu like it shows, it'll be colder than that. Could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 We might as well throw in a 4-6" event in April to top off this year I'm thinking first week of May... started winter with record breaking early storm, should end it with record breaking late storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Anyway, I'd chop 2F off the surface temps but that's still a bit on the warm side, Maybe if it thumps 18Z Wed-0Z Thu like it shows, it'll be colder than that. Could happen. I wonder if this will be similar to what happen in ct a few days ago....good thump....a inch along the shore....2-4 just inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 What I find interesting is that early in winter everything found a way to shift north... Now in the last part of winter everything wants to shift south. If recent events hold any weight then this south shift is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wonder if this will be similar to what happen in ct a few days ago....good thump....a inch along the shore....2-4 just inland.... Part 1 looks like an instant repeat but with frozen precip extending further south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The one idea that the Euro continues to hit on is that the GFS and even the GGEM to an extent are completely out to lunch with the warmup as the secondary low forms. The Euro has it forming hundreds of miles south of the other globals...off the coast of Ocean City MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12Z GGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 What is the total precip amounts for NYC on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12Z GGEM Total Snow. Yeah...a very nice hit for interior Northern NJ and even a decent amount of snow into NYC (15 mm)...Euro looks pretty similar at first glance but the boundary layer could cause some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Thats a big shift south with the snow amounts on the GEM that was just posted by tmagan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The one idea that the Euro continues to hit on is that the GFS and even the GGEM to an extent are completely out to lunch with the warmup as the secondary low forms. The Euro has it forming hundreds of miles south of the other globals...off the coast of Ocean City MD. That's what I'm skeptical off. I don't buy the OP Euro solution. A strong low in the Upper Midwest isn't likely to develop secondary low that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Verbatim probably a couple of inches of snow for most of the area....but I mean really in this winter that would be breaking news. Agreed, just something to track as well. What did the GEFS show did it agree with the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Agreed, just something to track as well. What did the GEFS show did it agree with the op? It did agree with the op. The GEFS has been awful this year so I wouldn't take it seriously. It is good that the euro went more south instead of north. The GGEM and Euro are almost similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It did agree with the op. The GEFS has been awful this year so I wouldn't take it seriously. It is good that the euro went more south instead of north. The GGEM and Euro are almost similiar. Yeah it's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12Z GGEM Total Snow. Where do you get this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's what I'm skeptical off. I don't buy the OP Euro solution. A strong low in the Upper Midwest isn't likely to develop secondary low that far south. Yeah, I feel like this 12z Euro may be a bit of a tease run, but we'll see. Usually w/ the primary going through Michigan, the transfer occurs east of NJ. A primary up through Ohio then a transfer to MD would be more believable. I'd love to see accumulating snow, but I still find it difficult to buy into the GGEM/ECMWF solutions. The system last week that gave VA 5" of snow was an entirely different synoptic set-up. Very strong confluence across NNE with a well placed 50/50 low near Newfoundland. More importantly the short wave originated in the southern stream and never phased w/ a nern s/w, allowing it to stay further south. This week's storm has no 50/50 low, a strong, but retreating high, and a phased northern stream short wave w/ the primary cutting thru Michigan - all bad signals for us. If we (NYC south) get anything more than a coating to 1", I'll be very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Where do you get this? http://www.meteo.gc.ca/vizaweb/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yeah, I feel like this 12z Euro may be a bit of a tease run, but we'll see. Usually w/ the primary going through Michigan, the transfer occurs east of NJ. A primary up through Ohio then a transfer to MD would be more believable. I'd love to see accumulating snow, but I still find it difficult to buy into the GGEM/ECMWF solutions. The system last week that gave VA 5" of snow was an entirely different synoptic set-up. Very strong confluence across NNE with a well placed 50/50 low near Newfoundland. More importantly the short wave originated in the southern stream and never phased w/ a nern s/w, allowing it to stay further south. This week's storm has no 50/50 low, a strong, but retreating high, and a phased northern stream short wave w/ the primary cutting thru Michigan - all bad signals for us. If we (NYC south) get anything more than a coating to 1", I'll be very surprised. GGEM,Euro and Ukie all snow accumulating snow for the area. I would like to see the GFS come on board. The confluence up north is stronger on the GGEM and Euro than the GFS. With a -PNA, it's possible that the euro ends up right. We will see what the models show tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junbug Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GGEM,Euro and Ukie all snow accumulating snow for the area. I would like to see the GFS come on board. The confluence up north is stronger on the GGEM and Euro than the GFS. With a -PNA, it's possible that the euro ends up right. We will see what the models show tonight and tomorrow. Snow for NYC? Highly doubt it. More like a mix to rain later... NYC seems to be right on or above the freezing mark on the models. I believe the GFS is correct with this storm thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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