Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This looks a lot like the numerous storms we had in 07-08, that were gradient storms with significant accums over SNE/NY state, and little to nothing around here. The low transfer would either have to take place significantly to the south of where progged now, the high would have to get stronger, and the storm would have to arrive earlier, preferably at night. A fine line exists in these kind of storms, as we should all unfortunately know too well from 2007-08, between rain and mostly snow. Most of us, at least south of interior CT and the Hudson Valley should be on the wrong side of the line. It's a storm where Boston will start to rack up their snow totals on us. On an excitement level, I'm probably a 1 or 2 out of 10. Strongly agree, we're getting into the classic Nina regime we had for much of the 2007-2008 period -- positive AO/NAO but cold highs running across southern Canada, providing just enough low level cold for wintry events in New England. The pattern is a wretched one for the mid atlantic and ok for New England. Usually in these type of regimes we're closer to what happens in the Mid atlantic in terms of snowfall. (aka nada). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ggem is a pretty big front end thump for NYC. Precip maps show snow for 6-8 hours. With heavy snow hour 76-78. The precip shuts off as it switches to light rain, towards the end. GGEM looks like the GFS with the 2nd part of the storm. Good to see the GGEM come in colder and south with the overrunning event. Euro should be interesting. GGEM with the overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Strongly agree, we're getting into the classic Nina regime we had for much of the 2007-2008 period -- positive AO/NAO but cold highs running across southern Canada, providing just enough low level cold for wintry events in New England. The pattern is a wretched one for the mid atlantic and ok for New England. Usually in these type of regimes we're closer to what happens in the Mid atlantic in terms of snowfall. (aka nada). Virginia got snow last week. It's possible if the confluence continues to get stronger and the storm gets shunted south, like the ggem is showing, NYC north gets a nice front end. Euro has been coming in south with every run as well. Hopefully, 12z continues to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldnt write off sig snow for the nyc metro area just yet, with the few wintry options this season the trend has been s and e at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The primary is so far west that even without strong confluence we wouldn't get that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldnt write off sig snow for the nyc metro area just yet, with the few wintry options this season the trend has been s and e at the last minute I'm actually quite concerned this gets shoved too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Virginia got snow last week. It's possible if the confluence continues to get stronger and the storm gets shunted south, like the ggem is showing, NYC north gets a nice front end. Euro has been coming in south with every run as well. Hopefully, 12z continues to do so. Agree completely. DC was expecting snow last week and the confluence drove the system so far south that southern Virginia saw snow. It's not like the Euro is showing a weak low in Quebec or something. The models show a high. We don't need a 1050 high to get snow in NYC. Let's see this thing play out. Too early still to believe it either way just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The difference between last week's storm, is that was coming out Deep South, and unphased. This one is coming out of the Northern Plains and it's phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm actually quite concerned this gets shoved too far south. then you also must be concerned NYC Metro has a good chance of seeing a mainly frozen event ? Seems as though you are thinking the south trend has not stopped yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ukmet has the 850 line south of Atlantic City at hour 72 and judging by the 700rh maps, the precip is pretty far south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 12z UKMET had a weaker high pressure than the CMC, about 4 mb weaker, but the high is aligned differently in a position that suppresses the 2nd low at 12z Thursday more than the CMC does. The detailed maps on E-wall haven't updated yet though so I don't know how it compares to the 0z ECMWF. The GFS is currently the weakest with the high pressure, showing it a little under 1028mb at 12z Thursday before weakening it more quickly while the rest of the models have it at the very least 1030mb and keep it mostly intact once the low moves off the coast. While there is no strong trend currently taking place, as shown by the 12z GFS and CMC which went further north with the second low, it'll be interesting to see if the model guidance trends towards more suppression with this time frame, enough to bring at least a light accumulating snow to rain event near NYC with more significant accumulations further north, or if a more GFS-like scenario verifies and the area sees front end mixing over to rain. The potential for heavier accumulations (at least 4"+) for NYC in my opinion is still very low, but with a winter like this at least there's finally something to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The difference between last week's storm, is that was coming out Deep South, and unphased. This one is coming out of the Northern Plains and it's phased. Looks like the primary is VERY far west, like west of the Lakes. Even if it's phased the fact that there is a high to our north will keep temps at the surface from getting high at all. We've seen systems with this type of setup before that have produced for area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The Euro is way farther south and colder than the 00z run at 78 hrs. 850 0c line is south of Philly. Boundary layer is definitely not idea...but the 40 F contour is over East-Central Long Island and off the coast. So you'd probably figure mid 30's in the city and lower 30's in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Barring any lower level warm layers...this looks like it could be snow...84 hr 850 0c line is still near Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The Euro is way farther south and colder than the 00z run at 78 hrs. 850 0c line is south of Philly. Boundary layer is definitely not idea...but the 40 F contour is over East-Central Long Island and off the coast. So you'd probably figure mid 30's in the city and lower 30's in the suburbs. Wow... good precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro is colder then ggem by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Barring any lower level warm layers...this looks like it could be snow...84 hr 850 0c line is still near Trenton Way south with waa. Misses sne....looks like a advisory level nw of city....slop for nyc south.... Close to. 50 for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Wow... good precip? Yes. Better then the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hr 96 more frozen preciep from rd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The trend south and stronger high and confluence was clear and the euro just confirmed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The trend south and stronger high and confluence was clear and the euro just confirmed it. Good call by u and sundog.... Looks like a William jackpot at 102....or north shore ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 EC BL seems to still be an issue with mid-upper 30s along I-95. I haven't seen the soundings yet so I don't know if the EC also thinks there will be a SE surface wind like the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The EC BL is always warm. Will (ORHwxman) has said to take the 35F line as the "freezing line". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The euro is mostly snow for NYC. Obviously, ocean areas have boundary issues, which is the case with 95% of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The EC BL is always warm. Will (ORHwxman) has said to take the 35F line as the "freezing line". I don't know if its THAT warm. 36-38F on the EC seems like it would translate to 34-36F in reality, which is mostly too warm for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The difference between last week's storm, is that was coming out Deep South, and unphased. This one is coming out of the Northern Plains and it's phased. But the primary being so far west in the first place is why we're cold. I wouldn't be surprised if the confluence rips the overrunning precip into pieces, rather than us being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's got more snow at 96 hours..the 850 0c line falls south again as a secondary low forms. 32 F line is crashed south too with the surface high building north of new England...this is a great run for most of the OKX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I don't know if its THAT warm. 36-38F on the EC seems like it would translate to 34-36F in reality, which is mostly too warm for accumulating snow. For who? Everything that Im seeing is 33-34 at the surface for NYC, northern Queens, Bronx and northern LI. Southern shores are 36-38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The euro is mostly snow for NYC. Obviously, ocean areas have boundary issues, which is the case with 95% of storms. The coast is pretty warm verbatim...and everybody warms up as the precip slows down between 84 and 90 hours. The second wave at 96 hours also looks to be rain/snow to snow...as the surface low forms off the coast. The surface high is in a good position to the north at the exact right moment...as the warm air advection from the ULL drives precip towards the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I don't know if its THAT warm. 36-38F on the EC seems like it would translate to 34-36F in reality, which is mostly too warm for accumulating snow. Although I remain the skeptic here, do not take these numbers literally. Very small changes can alter the actual temperatures in these storms and a difference of just a couple of degrees can sometimes be huge. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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