MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It gives NYC a mix of slush, as surface temps are warm. It gives CT a very good snowstorm. Agree. All the models have accumulating snow in SNE. For our area, it's still up in the air right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Agree. All the models have accumulating snow in SNE. For our area, it's still up in the air right now. We need the confluence to come in stronger and further south as we approach the storm. Same as last week for Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 whats this guys track record ? rekiable ? the outline of the all snow area looks kind of weird to me - northern outer fork of LI all snow ? I do want to mention this is just a first outlook, and a lot of the finer details (including the magnitude of cold air damming that could occur) is still very much in question. Despite this, I think the ECMWF probably has a better handle on the damming signature, and I'd be much more willing to trust the colder solution of the ECMWF at this point considering it was the first to pick up on the strengthening 850 hPa high over the Canadian Provences. The other models do seem to be coming around to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Still plenty of time as we've learned this year. Regardless we have something to track and that is getting somewhat interesting for some in the area. Gfs out soon hopefully south trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't get worked up the details, the models are showing, until about 48hrs. The setup still looks putrid for Northern Mid-Atlantic, particulary from NYC south. Most of the models, ensembles still showing a deep,stacked primary low over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Which will drive alot of warmth into at least the mid-levels. A 1032mb high over Central Queebec is not going to be enough to keeps this all south. Mostly likely, any accumulating snow stays north of NYC. I agree. At this point I could see a minor accum in NYC but the best potential for 3"+ will be in the lower hudson valley, NW NJ and CT. We need a lot of changes for this to be a significant snow set up for NYC/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I agree. At this point I could see a minor accum in NYC but the best potential for 3"+ will be in the lower hudson valley, NW NJ and CT. We need a lot of changes for this to be a significant snow set up for NYC/NJ. How about for the 2nd part that everyone's talking about? Do you see more potential in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm curious why everyone is thinking that when someone posts thoughts, they think its only for the first part. Why would we do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Also, it was the first model to really "see" the damming that occurred Friday. The NAM followed suit shortly thereafter, but other models really struggled with it. The ECMWF constantly was saying we would never get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s. It was right. I do want to mention this is just a first outlook, and a lot of the finer details (including the magnitude of cold air damming that could occur) is still very much in question. Despite this, I think the ECMWF probably has a better handle on the damming signature, and I'd be much more willing to trust the colder solution of the ECMWF at this point considering it was the first to pick up on the strengthening 850 hPa high over the Canadian Provences. The other models do seem to be coming around to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is further north and warmer. Much different than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Awesome run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is further north and warmer. Much different than the Euro. Besides for the less-than-reliable SREF mean, the Euro has been the coldest model for this storm since it began showing that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS keeps the BL at NYC warm with a southeasterly wind. If that's wrong, and it might be, then its probably a decent front end dump (above the surface its cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 NAM has an icy mess north as CAD signature keeps interior below freezing with warmer air moving in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its going to be a fairly slop mixbag event. Nothing to write home about for NY Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS keeps the BL at NYC warm with a southeasterly wind. If that's wrong, and it might be, then its probably a decent front end dump (above the surface its cold). GFS snowmap shows about an inch for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 If the GFS BL is right, that may be correct. If its wind is too southeasterly, then it may be underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS snowmap shows about an inch for NYC. what does it snow for north of white plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 what does it snow for north of white plains? Does not show a lot until you get to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It looks like the 12z GGEM is also further north and warmer than the 0z run with the 2nd part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ggem is further south with overunning, but the 2nd part is well north and leaves NYC fairly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 what does it snow for north of white plains? The NAM has snow to sleet to rain at HPN and a change to freezing rain north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Two differences between the GGEM and GFS. One, the GGEM has a 1038mb high over Central Queebec. The GFS has a 1032mb high. Two, precip comes during the morning hours on Wednesday, on the GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GEM has a decent front-end thump. Several inches probably. Though I can't see the soundings, surface is near freezing and 850's below (don't know where to look for those p-type graphics that people post but that would probably help). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How about for the 2nd part that everyone's talking about? Do you see more potential in that My last post included the second part, (as Ray noted), which i think will be a non event for NYC at this point. Anyone from NYC/LI southwestward looking for more than 1" is setting themselves up for failure IMO. The cold sfc high to the north may provide enough low level drainage for brief C-1" in NYC, although timing is poor w/ the pcpn arriving mid/late morning Wednesday. Boundary layer warmth favors a non-accumulating snow/mix over to rain fairly quickly. The energy transfer to the coast occurs near/slightly north of our latitude which is very unfavorable for accumulating snow south of CT. SNE still has a decent shot to pull a sig snow out of this entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GEM has a decent front-end thump. Several inches probably. Though I can't see the soundings, surface is near freezing and 850's below (don't know where to look for those p-type graphics that people post but that would probably help). I believe they are on the coolwx site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Two differences between the GGEM and GFS. One, the GGEM has a 1038mb high over Central Queebec. The GFS has a 1032mb high. Two, precip comes during the morning hours on Wednesday, on the GGEM: IIRC, We've seen the GGEM do this before with regards to overestimating surface high pressure. Most other guidance indicates a considerably weaker high, on the order of 1028-1032mb while the storm is ongoing. This would be strong enough to help SNE, but in this pattern NYC needs a 1040 high to be mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I believe they are on the coolwx site. You can get it here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This looks a lot like the numerous storms we had in 07-08, that were gradient storms with significant accums over SNE/NY state, and little to nothing around here. The low transfer would either have to take place significantly to the south of where progged now, the high would have to get stronger, and the storm would have to arrive earlier, preferably at night. A fine line exists in these kind of storms, as we should all unfortunately know too well from 2007-08, between rain and mostly snow. Most of us, at least south of interior CT and the Hudson Valley should be on the wrong side of the line. It's a storm where Boston will start to rack up their snow totals on us. On an excitement level, I'm probably a 1 or 2 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ggem is a pretty big front end thump for NYC. Precip maps show snow for 6-8 hours. With heavy snow hour 76-78. The precip shuts off as it switches to light rain, towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 IIRC, We've seen the GGEM do this before with regards to overestimating surface high pressure. Most other guidance indicates a considerably weaker high, on the order of 1028-1032mb while the storm is ongoing. This would be strong enough to help SNE, but in this pattern NYC needs a 1040 high to be mostly frozen. I agree. Just wanted everyone understand, why it's little more frozen in NYC, on Wednesday, than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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