snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 0z GFS verbatim is a quick 3-4" to rain scenario for this neck of the woods. First time it has shown this. Looks like its starting to make its move toward the snowy solution of the 0z/12z EC.. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 00Z Sunday GGEM Total Snow through hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Will be interesting to see the EURO tonight. GFS is keeping things pretty warm as well as the NAM (granted its in the long range still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 00Z Sunday GGEM Total Snow through hour 144. Wow.. How much wetter is it from 12z? Thats 20mm+ for areas 40 miles NW of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just getting a look at things for the first time, but the Euro still looks good on tonights run. There is a nicely placed and timed high pressure north of New England and a weak surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast at 108 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just getting a look at things for the first time, but the Euro still looks good on tonights run. There is a nicely placed and timed high pressure north of New England and a weak surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast at 108 hrs. yeah, it nudged a little bit south of the 12z run.....I like the trends for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 BL temps are still marginal along I-95 but I'd guestimate that the 0Z EC gives NYC an inch or two of snow. More NW of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The Wunderground EC maps give NYC nearly 4" but I think that, as per usual, they are way overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Best guess on the GEM is also 1-2" for NYC, more NW of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 There is going to be a nice temperature differential between NYC and Pittsburgh Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 06Z NAM BUFKIT sounding for KLGA Hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How does the 2nd low look on the euro for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How does the 2nd low look on the euro for us? What second low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 What second low? In the sne thread that were talking about this second wave of preciep....it was on the 12z euro and ggem....p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 In the sne thread that were talking about this second wave of preciep....it was on the 12z euro and ggem....p That's what I was talking about with the 1-2". First wave is mainly rain. Maybe a brief period of snow/sleet at the very start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's what I was talking about with the 1-2". First wave is mainly rain. Maybe a brief period of snow/sleet at the very start. Okay thanks ray....just saw my euro maps...102-126.......hopefully ut trends colder...boston going to make up for lost tine..time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 All Models Trending Colder. (Upton agrees) . Euro continues to show a widespread 6-10" snowstorm. Euro00z 2/26/12 Animation. Surface map on left, Snow Totals on right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Along I-95 the EC BL is a big problem with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Those snow totals don't agree with the EC BL. They're overdone, at least the southern edge. All Models Trending Colder. (Upton agrees) . Euro continues to show a widespread 6-10" snowstorm. Euro00z 2/26/12 Animation. Surface map on left, Snow Totals on right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 THIS IS WHAT UPTON SAYS IN THEIR MORNING UPDATE: THERE IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME MIXING IN OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY FAVOR MAINLY RAIN OR MAYBE A WINTRY MIX THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Those snow totals don't agree with the EC BL. They're overdone, at least the southern edge. Its showing .89qpf for Danbury, CT which would supoprt a 6-9" snowfall shown on map. .92" for Hartford,CT 850s stay below freezing whole time and surface 29-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't get worked up the details, the models are showing, until about 48hrs. The setup still looks putrid for Northern Mid-Atlantic, particulary from NYC south. Most of the models, ensembles still showing a deep,stacked primary low over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Which will drive alot of warmth into at least the mid-levels. A 1032mb high over Central Queebec is not going to be enough to keeps this all south. Mostly likely, any accumulating snow stays north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its showing .89qpf for Danbury, CT which would supoprt a 6-9" snowfall shown on map. .92" for Hartford,CT 850s stay below freezing whole time and surface 29-33. After looking at the thermal profile, I'd guess that about 0.6" in Danbury falls as accumulating snow, so the low end of the 6-9" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't get worked up the details, the models are showing, until about 48hrs. The setup still looks putrid for Northern Mid-Atlantic, particulary from NYC south. Most of the models, ensembles still showing a deep,stacked primary low over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Which will drive alot of warmth into at least the mid-levels. A 1032mb high over Central Queebec is not going to be enough to keeps this all south. Mostly likely, any accumulating snow stays north of NYC. True but like you said have to wait till we get closer to 48 hours a 50 mile shift south or a slightly stronger HP in Quebec makes the difference between a cold rain or accumulating snow in all of NYC Metro - especially since this is still trending but then again it could trend back north - have to leave all options on the table........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 BTW, this isn't exactly a thumping storm, all the 6-hour QPF totals in Danbury are less than 0.20", so the most you'd get in 6 hours was 2" of snow. There may be times when you'd get 4" in 4 hours and then it would stop for a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Meteorologist Phil from the SNE thread http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/local3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Meteorologist Phil from the SNE thread http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local3.html whats this guys track record ? rekiable ? the outline of the all snow area looks kind of weird to me - northern outer fork of LI all snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 whats this guys track record ? rekiable ? I think he just became a met last year. He has a good track record. 12z Nam also went south. It gives NYC a little snow before it turns to rain with the 1st event. SNE gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 While models continue to push south, including the latest NAM, we need it 50-100 miles further south for our area to have a shot at overunning snow bomb before the rain. The 2nd part is all up to what the ULL does and we won't have a handle on that until at least inside of 60 hours, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I think he just became a met last year. He has a good track record. 12z Nam also went south. It gives NYC a little snow before it turns to rain with the 1st event. SNE gets hammered. It gives NYC a mix of slush, as surface temps are warm. It gives CT a very good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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