ag3 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ok Snow - I changed the sub title description for this thread to a cold rain since the Euro has some frozen just to the north - question is how far south will this continue to trend ? Also on another note - lets stop the bullying in here - no need for personal attacks against fellow posters just because you don't agree with their ideas about the weather pattern etc. The euro has snow for NYC from hours 114-126. Similar to the ggem. The ggem is a bit north though with the best precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Completely different teleconnections Jan 21st time frame we had a negative AO http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif And we has a PNA on the upswing http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif So the negative AO allowed the seasonal to below seasonal temps to occur and the PNA on the upswing was just enough for amplification.... Eyeballing a line on a graph with 16 day increments is not an accurate way at determining what the teleconnections were like for January 21st, a specific day. Each bar on these graphs represents one day, so these graphs are better at determining what the teleconnections were like for a particular day, but they are definitely not perfect with their indicies. The AO was neutral on January 21st: The PNA was negative: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The EURO has caved to the GFS/NAM solutions much more this season. Last year it was vise-versa but the EURO's inconsistencies this year are very noticeable. NYC will not see snow this week. Heights along the East coast are going to be raised pretty dramatically as a strong plains system cuts into the eastern lakes. Yea maybe areas N-NW of NYC will see some ice or snow from overrunning, but the city itself nada. A couple days ago I made a blog as to why the Nor'easter the 00z EURO showed a few nights ago will NOT happen. If you would like to read it the link is below: http://aeroweather.org/2012/02/23/rain-tomorrow-chilly-weekend-storm-next-week-is-unlikely/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The EURO has caved to the GFS/NAM solutions much more this season. Last year it was vise-versa but the EURO's inconsistencies this year are very noticeable. NYC will not see snow this week. Heights along the East coast are going to be raised pretty dramatically as a strong plains system cuts into the eastern lakes. Yea maybe areas N-NW of NYC will see some ice or snow from overrunning, but the city itself nada. A couple days ago I made a blog as to why the Nor'easter the 00z EURO showed a few nights ago will NOT happen. If you would like to read it the link is below: http://aeroweather.org/2012/02/23/rain-tomorrow-chilly-weekend-storm-next-week-is-unlikely/ Euro does not show snow from overunning. It's the period right after. The first system, has no shot at snow for our area, and like you said, the SE ridge will be pumping from the lakes cutter low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 This is definitely a very Miller B type scenario with the transfer to the coast and redevelopment. That makes everything extra tricky. Any snow in NYC will depend on how fast the warm advection comes in before it devours the cold air, and then where exactly the transfer from primary to secondary low takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Not a big fan of the GGEM, but here is the total snow through five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Mt Holly and Upton are going with the Euro for next week. Here is the snippet from Upton Long term /Monday through Saturday/...latest forecast continues to follow more closely to a blend of the 12z ecwmf and ggem. Based on the most recent storm system...the GFS appears to be too progressive and too far north with the storm track in comparison to the global model ensemble. A progressive...yet amplified flow will continue into the upcoming week as a series of Pacific storm systems traverse the lower 48. The first of which will pass to the north Monday into Monday night with no precipitation forecast. Its the next system for the middle week that raises some interest as low pressure tracks from the upper MS valley eastward into the Ohio Valley...with possible secondary development along the middle Atlantic coast. At the same time...some marginally cold air in the northern branch of the polar jet spills across eastern Canada and into the northeast. Large scale overrunning precipitation is forecast to develop across the east Wednesday morning and continue into Thursday. With a strong high to the north...around 1030 mb...and a low track to the south...the potential does exist for wintry weather inland and mainly rain at the coast. However...the details at this point in time are very general in scope...but this is something to watch. High pressure then briefly builds in at the end of the week before another Pacific storm system move into the region next Sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Mt Holly and Upton are going with the Euro for next week. Here is the snippet from Upton They ignored the EC p-type forecast... "mainly rain at the coast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean. Rain for coastal areas but looks like the op. They ignored the EC p-type forecast... "mainly rain at the coast". Yes but then they said it still has to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean. Rain for coastal areas but looks like the op. Yes but then they said it still has to be monitored. Close wouldn't take much to have frozen in all of NYC Metro if that low develops further south by a few miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Close wouldn't take much to have frozen in all of NYC Metro if that low develops further south by a few miles Agree but as of now ,it's a rain event for coastal areas and snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Agree but as of now ,it's a rain event for coastal areas and snow inland. this is trending and still have 4 - 5 days would be interesting if last weeks original south track was closer to the truth also if GFS starts trending soon willl get more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like some type of quasi Norlun trough on the 18z GFS between hours 114 and 126 (Thursday)....might be a good event from the Berkshires to N. CT...those things are notoriously tough to pin down...even 12 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Not a big fan of the GGEM, but here is the total snow through five days. Classic Nina gradient pattern. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Classic Nina gradient pattern. Lovely. If this be the winter Of your discontent There is always the banter thread As a place to vent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like some type of quasi Norlun trough on the 18z GFS between hours 114 and 126 (Thursday)....might be a good event from the Berkshires to N. CT...those things are notoriously tough to pin down...even 12 hours out... I'm thinking that this isn't really a Norlun... the surface low tracks right across that area during the 6-hours in which the heavier precip falls, with the upper-level trough coming in right behind. That's not really a Norlun from what I remember, looks more like a deformation band. But I'm no expert on Norluns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'm thinking that this isn't really a Norlun... the surface low tracks right across that area during the 6-hours in which the heavier precip falls, with the upper-level trough coming in right behind. That's not really a Norlun from what I remember, looks more like a deformation band. But I'm no expert on Norluns. Well, I did say quasi...heheh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 not going to take much for this to trend south and the primary go through the ohio valley - lower ohio and reform off delmarva or south jersey and we will be changing the title of this thread back to winter storm for NYC 18Z GFS ensemble is trying to reform off the coast http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 For those that read my blog I posted on the previous page, I did mention how a possible transfer to the coast may happen with the Thursday storm. Where it happens and IF it happens at all is still in question, but those located North of the purple line would have the best opportunity to see accumulating snow. That's just my opinion though, if the low were to develop further South the purple line can probably be moved South-Southeast as well. http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/409110_331031323615300_100001253051397_1027393_1717280152_n.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 For those that read my blog I posted on the previous page, I did mention how a possible transfer to the coast may happen with the Thursday storm. Where it happens and IF it happens at all is still in question, but those located North of the purple line would have the best opportunity to see accumulating snow. That's just my opinion though, if the low were to develop further South the purple line can probably be moved South-Southeast as well. http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/409110_331031323615300_100001253051397_1027393_1717280152_n.jpg Frank field that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 For those that read my blog I posted on the previous page, I did mention how a possible transfer to the coast may happen with the Thursday storm. Where it happens and IF it happens at all is still in question, but those located North of the purple line would have the best opportunity to see accumulating snow. That's just my opinion though, if the low were to develop further South the purple line can probably be moved South-Southeast as well. http://a7.sphotos.ak...717280152_n.jpg 50 miles south would do it right below LI through central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 50 miles south would do it right below LI through central NJ That would be nice but I'm not sure if that will happen. EURO today looked like best case scenario. And no I am not Frank Field's haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 For those that read my blog I posted on the previous page, I did mention how a possible transfer to the coast may happen with the Thursday storm. Where it happens and IF it happens at all is still in question, but those located North of the purple line would have the best opportunity to see accumulating snow. That's just my opinion though, if the low were to develop further South the purple line can probably be moved South-Southeast as well. http://a7.sphotos.ak...717280152_n.jpg The EC had accumulating snow into Sussex/W Passaic Counties in NJ. Not sure if your basing your prelim on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The EC had accumulating snow into Sussex/W Passaic Counties in NJ. Not sure if your basing your prelim on it. Not at all. But keep in mind the accumulations NJ/HV/CT saw a couple night's ago was NOT part of the secondary low that developed and eventually brought portions of Maine 12+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 0z GFS so far looks even more suppressed than the previous GFS run... although there's no blocking, with the confluence along with comparing how the two recent storms ended up compared to what the models showed, the southern solutions make more sense to me, with accumulations possible in southern/central New England and parts of northern New England (may not be all snow though). How far south it ends up is still a question, and while it's impossible to rule out a case where it ends up suppressed enough to affect NYC with at the very least a little accumulating snow, I'm not sure if the storm will be far south enough when entering the region with enough confluence to bring more than some front end mixing north/west of NYC changing over to rain. Besides, this pattern almost always finds a way to screw snow potentials for NYC, so I'd keep my hopes low for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Waiting for ewall to update, but the ggem looks like it has a decent amount of precip hours 108-120 and cold enough. Tough to be sure from the black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Waiting for ewall to update, but the ggem looks like it has a decent amount of precip hours 108-120 and cold enough. Tough to be sure from the black and white maps. Nice hit for the northern areas with the 0z cmc... looks similar to Thursday night's event but wetter, southern CT gets accumulations but it looks like Orange county gets the most snow. That's noticeably colder than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Nice hit for the northern areas with the 0z cmc... looks similar to Thursday night's event but wetter, southern CT gets accumulations but it looks like Orange county gets the most snow. That's noticeably colder than the 12z run. Past hour 108 is where it's borderline frozen for NYC and north with about .40"-50" of precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Except for NW NJ and Northern (far NJ) The GGEM is mainly rain (NE PA an exception but even they change to rain) For the second small batch it is mainly wet along the coast with perhaps some sleet and flurries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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