NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This storm has been showing up on the GFS model runs in some shape or form in this time frame along the east coast for several model runs in a row with cold air in place and strong high pressure to the north this time around - will keep updating topic title and description to update the threat level and accurate storm date(s) Lets discuss http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12228.gif http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 We'll have to keep a close eye on this one as well neg nao this storm has been showing up consistently on the gfs for several model runs and looks more favorable than this weekends dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I know this isn't my region, but really a thread for a supposed storm 10 days away. Models can't even forecast 24 hours before a storm this year. Just think it's early to have a storm thread. Just my .02 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It has been showing up a lot on the GFS but I will not believe anything until 5 days before the event hits. Also, everything is 10 days away this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 I know this isn't my region, but really a thread for a supposed storm 10 days away. Models can't even forecast 24 hours before a storm this year. Just think it's early to have a storm thread. Just my .02 cents. its between - 8 -9 days away the last thread was started that far out plus there is nothing too talk about other then the record breaking warmth lack of snow and lack of precip - there have been winters in the past which were blah until the end of Feb then a few weeks or more of cold and snow or a big storm such as 1955 - 56, 1905 - 06, 1889 -1890 , 1895 -96, 1991 - 92 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I know, very good points. I hope we can pull something off during this timeframe, but I for one will not believe what any models say untill a day out. If a system is showing up 5 or 6 days away with sone consistency you bet I'll be following along with everybody else. But honestly I lost all hope basically. Would be great to pull off a storm that all the regions could cash in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 0z GGEM has a storm in this timeframe. It's cold and stormy in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 0z GGEM has a storm in this timeframe. It's cold and stormy in the long range. Every model for months has been cold and stormy in the long range. It hasn't been cold and it hasn't been stormy all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Every model for months has been cold and stormy in the long range. It hasn't been cold and it hasn't been stormy all winter. It's always 10 days away. The new motto for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yeah we're due and nothing wrong with having a thread for this potential threat. Though it has been a jinx in the past unfortunately. its between - 8 -9 days away the last thread was started that far out plus there is nothing too talk about other then the record breaking warmth lack of snow and lack of precip - there have been winters in the past which were blah until the end of Feb then a few weeks or more of cold and snow or a big storm such as 1955 - 56, 1905 - 06, 1889 -1890 , 1895 -96, 1991 - 92 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Every model for months has been cold and stormy in the long range. It hasn't been cold and it hasn't been stormy all winter. I disagree - this weekend it was cold and snowy just south of us in Kentucky , TN , WV , Virginia and NC - so the storm was there but just missed us to the south - its not like it didn't happen at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 This is the first threat that the GFS has shown for back to back runs all winter....and not just a threat but a sizeable storm that is cold enough for snow. Not saying its going to happen but the past few weekends we've been trying to get a storm when there was just no model support for one It's always 10 days away. The new motto for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It would be fitting for the winter if we get hit in late March or early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Only if the Euro shows it, will I be interested ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Storm is still there on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 What things are most favorable for the storm? I am asking since the Euro hasn't hinted and I wonder what effect truncation has on the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lots of cold air in SE canada if the gfs is right, so maybe there will be some type of gradient/overrunning type of storm. However its 8-10 days out and the synoptics will probly change ten fold. and that brings me to this statement: I personally don't think we'll see anything significant until next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lots of cold air in SE canada if the gfs is right, so maybe there will be some type of gradient/overrunning type of storm. However its 8-10 days out and the synoptics will probly change ten fold. and that brings me to this statement: I personally don't think we'll see anything significant until next year I was thinking that way last week but with the weakening la nina that kind of favors cold late season and spring - I think we are going to have a real battle ground set up beginning next week betweeen warm south and cold north and we probably will be on the cold side of it much of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 0z GGEM has a storm in this timeframe. It's cold and stormy in the long range. Yup, with -PNA, +AO and no blocking, that is sure to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Yup, with -PNA, +AO and no blocking, that is sure to verify. the Jan 21 snow event with temps in the 20's had a postive NAO a Negative PNA and a neutral AO look back at the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 the Jan 21 snow event with temps in the 20's had a postive NAO a Negative PNA and a neutral AO look back at the charts The PNA was somewhat negative (-0.547). The AO had gone negative (-0.769) and was falling fast. It reached -2.211 just two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 the Jan 21 snow event with temps in the 20's had a postive NAO a Negative PNA and a neutral AO look back at the charts Firstly, that occurred during the climatologically coldest week of the year. Now we are talking the beginning of March. Second, it hit 53F TWO DAYS after that snow event. So, not exactly a period of cold/snow. Obviously we could see a winter storm, but the idea that we will be entering a period of cold/storm conditions given A) the season we are entering and B ) the way the teleconnections are setting up is beyond laughable. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Firstly, that occurred during the climatologically coldest week of the year. Now we are talking the beginning of March. Second, it hit 53F TWO DAYS after that snow event. So, not exactly a period of cold/snow. Obviously we could see a winter storm, but the idea that we will be entering a period of cold/storm conditions given A) the season we are entering and B ) the way the teleconnections are setting up is beyond laughable. Sorry. I really don't think these nao ao pna arguments hold any water - example Oct 29 - if we can have a snowstorm Oct 29 we can surely have one Feb - 28 - March 1 - plus don't you see all the cold air available before and during that time frame ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12Z Euro is not very encouraging for the 2/28 - 3/1 timeframe... in fact, it's down-right awful, at this point. Trough out west - ridge in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I am highly against a snow event, but at least the weather pattern will be more exciting than it has been for pretty much 99% of this winter. With arctic air settling in Canada, a building SE ridge and intense thermal gradients, we are sure to see a lot more activity (all rain most likely) for our area. The first of these will be Friday/Saturday, we could see some strong winds, heavy rain, fluctuating temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I really don't think these nao ao pna arguments hold any water - example Oct 29 - if we can have a snowstorm Oct 29 we can surely have one Feb - 28 - March 1 - plus don't you see all the cold air available before and during that time frame ? I think the cold air is being overplayed given the wholesale lack of snowcover in the lower 48 and southern Canada. Storms like Oct 29 are such extreme outliers that using them as justification for some other event ocurring is tantamount to saying, well an asteroid COULD hit the Earth and wipe out humanity in the next 100 years. I mean look, it happened that one time 65 million years ago! Well sure, it COULD happen, but given the way the pattern appears to be setting up re: teleconnections, the probability would be extremely low. It is even LOWER for any type of sustained cold/snow outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12Z Euro is not very encouraging for the 2/28 - 3/1 timeframe... in fact, it's down-right awful, at this point. Trough out west - ridge in the east Well what do you expect when all teleconnections favor that, -PNA, +AO/NAO, building SE ridge, nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well what do you expect when all teleconnections favor that, -PNA, +AO/NAO, building SE ridge, nothing new. I was only saying that in respect to the fact we have a lot of adjustments to pull off a winter storm in this timeframe, which is what the thread topic is about. I am aware that those weather patterns you mentioned above will attribute to what the Euro is forecasting. Euro could put us well in the 60's in that timeframe. 850's are in the 10 - 12C range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 The GFS has wave developing along front boundary. Which will probably change many times, from now until then. More likely though, the SE ridge will probably win out in this range, without any decent blocking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Firstly, that occurred during the climatologically coldest week of the year. Now we are talking the beginning of March. Second, it hit 53F TWO DAYS after that snow event. So, not exactly a period of cold/snow. Obviously we could see a winter storm, but the idea that we will be entering a period of cold/storm conditions given A) the season we are entering and B ) the way the teleconnections are setting up is beyond laughable. Sorry. We really need to have a "like" button lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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