Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 ..KS/OK TO MO/NWRN AR STRONG DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE POTENT CO/NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET. STRONG DPVA AND KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN A TROUGH EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM TODAY WILL NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN...AS AN INTRUSION OF CP AIR OCCURRED INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY. THUS...WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. AT BEST...LOW-MID 40S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK BY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 40 F VALUES INTO ERN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT TROUGH AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS INTO PARTS OF WRN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 21-00Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND NNWWD INTO CENTRAL KS AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS LATTER TIMING COINCIDES WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL JET AND DPVA SPREADING ATOP THE CORRIDOR OF GREATER...THOUGH WEAK...MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW-TOPPED AND FAST MOVING /ENEWD AT 45-50 KT/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT RESULTING IN BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SPEED OF THE STORMS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED HAIL. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST AS WELL. DURING THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. RESIDUAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS /WSWLY AT 55-65 KT AT 700 MB/ AS THE PLAINS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AGAIN PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 SPC WRF looks decent. If not for the lack of decent moisture return, this would be a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 low tops seem probable nothing crazy but we could see a couple spin ups. If moisture return was better this would be a much better event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Slight risk up for KS/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I personally feel the tornado threat is (relatively) maximized a touch farther W/NW than indicated on the latest SWODY1, which seems to be a common bias on cold-core days. The first area of potential will be true cold core in NC KS, in the vicinity of RSL-HLC, during the early-mid afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, another threat could possibly materialize in NW/NC OK into S KS. Though farther displaced from the H5 low, the mid-level temperatures are still obscenely cold over this sliver of the warm sector, with surface-H5 lapse rates about as steep as you'll ever see. One can't help but have flashbacks to March 8, 2010, though I still suspect that was the kind of extreme result that only 1/25 similar events would yield in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I personally feel the tornado threat is (relatively) maximized a touch farther W/NW than indicated on the latest SWODY1, which seems to be a common bias on cold-core days. The first area of potential will be true cold core in NC KS, in the vicinity of RSL-HLC, during the early-mid afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, another threat could possibly materialize in NW/NC OK into S KS. Though farther displaced from the H5 low, the mid-level temperatures are still obscenely cold over this sliver of the warm sector, with surface-H5 lapse rates about as steep as you'll ever see. One can't help but have flashbacks to March 8, 2010, though I still suspect that was the kind of extreme result that only 1/25 similar events would yield in reality. yeah, Dick McGowan and company are headed to the Russell area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I personally feel the tornado threat is (relatively) maximized a touch farther W/NW than indicated on the latest SWODY1. Agree, northern KS, even southern NE possibly could be the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Agree, northern KS, even southern NE possibly could be the spot. If the moisture/warmth can make it that far north, hell it's in the 40s in OK right now so the atmosphere has a lot of work ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Should be clearing out here by 2 p.m. or so; Mesonet data shows temperatures quickly rebounding into the 50s and lower 60s in places where it has cleared out already. Going to be a race against time to get storms to initiate before the dryline moves through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Should be clearing out here by 2 p.m. or so; Mesonet data shows temperatures quickly rebounding into the 50s and lower 60s in places where it has cleared out already. Going to be a race against time to get storms to initiate before the dryline moves through here. That weak dryline has pushed into western OK now. Low level lapse rates are responding and there is some Cu development already. Cold front isn't far behind though, pushing through the panhandles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Here is the 15z HRRR model run for this evening in Oklahoma and Kansas. Should get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It won't take much with -29°C at 500 hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Initiation from Pratt, KS down to Arapaho, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 North side of Enid looks to have gotten a nasty storm. In Kansas, storms have lined up and will approach downtown Wichita within the next half-hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Seems like a warning should be in place in Wichita, but I don't see any yet. Also, the southern part of the line has developed some rotation during the last few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Nice vis with the blowing dust plume getting ingested into the storms. Beautiful baroclinic trof initiating those cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lots of circulations apparent on Wichita radar...some rather vigorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Lots of circulations apparent on Wichita radar...some rather vigorous. Nice broken S type look to them. One of them associated with that 67 mph gust at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Seems like a warning should be in place in Wichita, but I don't see any yet. Also, the southern part of the line has developed some rotation during the last few minutes. A little bit bewildered as to why no SVR for Wichita and surrounding areas. The NWS office reported nickel size hail and the wind gusted to 55 mph, while the line continued to strengthen as it entered the city. Quarter size hail and wind damage were reported as well as some property damage in Andover. The SVR was then issued as the line was east of Wichita. My guess is that warning for low-topped lines is something that Wichita is not used to seeing, so that may have been a factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 0417 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDOVER 37.69N 97.14W 02/20/2012 BUTLER KS PUBLIC REPORT OF ROOF TORN OFF BUILDING AND CARS MOVED IN A PARKING LOT. RELAYED BY BUTLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Kinda odd new watch out for Oklahoma and Arkansas. Weird how it is just for areas north of I40. I guess they don't see the storms below the watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 And SGF SVR for their 3 counties in SE KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 1 confirmed dead in a mobile home park near Ada, OK. Winds reportedly blew mobile homes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 2330 UNK 5 E ADA PONTOTOC OK 3478 9657 TRAILER HOME DESTROYED ... 1 FATALITY ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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